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Well, yes. Elon does have a bit of a track record of not being exactly truthful. I don't think he lies. I think he says things as he sees them - and then a bit later when he sees it differently, or when something new comes up, then he changes what he says.
But... I think the odds are better on his latest set of tweets. I am convinced that, while he was involved, this was a fairly well planned event, involving some of his marketing folks. I'd put money on it that S/X sales are slipping a bit due to the impending M3. The expectations for the 3 were pretty high, and I'm sure a number of people are holding off to see what the 3 is like. Me, for example.
I also wonder if the decisions to not include a HUD and AWD were production/engineering driven, or were marketing driven, intended to minimize S/X cannibalization. Even without AWD and the HUD they will sell out the M3 production. No sense piling on.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
The Model 3 is destined to greatly outsell both Model S and Model X. Naysayers and ANALysts are bound to refer to that as 'cannibalization' of high end sales, even if Model S maintains its #1 spot among flagship vehicles and Model X continues to outsell Cayenne while catching up to Q7, X5/X6, and GL/GLS. The editorial narrative will always be that there is a 'limited market' for high end electric cars even when evidence to the contrary is readily available. There is no need for Tesla Enthusiasts to succumb to or give credence to such characterizations from those who just want to fill the space between advertisements and are angered by 'free press' being granted to a company that do not pay the piper. Choose the narrative you will believe, even if it is one of yourown crafting.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I think it's still mostly about keeping it simple, making production as easy as possible, and allowing a quick ramp. A single motor/inverter/transaxle cuts any potential issues with them in half compared to an AWD car. The HUD was probably just something we all assumed/imagined and was never part of the initial plan.
The only possible cannibalization is with those S buyers (definitely not X) that bought S base version just because there is absolutely nothing else to choose from. There is a small portion of S-buyers who pushed their wallets to the limit in the name of getting any EV with medium range. And most of those did not want to pay gizmos/size S-offers (so they are not actually happy with the purchase in every aspect) . Going back to the philosophy of Tesla as a company - the primary purpose of that company is NOT MAKING MONEY. People tend to forget that over and over again.
AWD adds a huge portion per vehicle. To get the production numbers up faster removing front drivetrain helps a lot. Model S started the same way. AWD wasn't offered until things were smooth enough.
Not including HUD is not actually the question. Not including instrument cluster is the thing that people worry about.
I analyzed instrument clusters of few EVs and concluded that these are as functional as Model S nose cone.
Just an example (please ignore bad dashboard design).
Not so.... I'm a case in point. I can tell you that, had a M3 with AWD been available at the time that I bought my P85D, I would have certainly gone that way. I can afford a high end S or X easily, but I've never felt the need to drive around in a 6 digit car. The Tesla is the first car that I've seen that's was compelling enough for me to be open to doing so.
I'm not the only person who is in that position. Once the 3 is available, I think you'll see a bunch of folks going back. And you'll have others (Europe I suspect) where the size of the 3 is preferable over the size of the S, irrespective of price.
Further, there are a bunch of folks holding off to see what new tech the 3 offers. A lot of people are concerned about just missing an upgrade.
The next few months should be interesting.
I just really want to know what happened to the spaceship controls. I don't care either way what it actually comes with, but I want to know the story. Was it supposed to have an amazing HUD and they scrapped it? Obviously if the interior/controls end up looking like the early prototypes, then plans changed along the way because Elon clearly stated that the controls would be different and cooler than they were in that car. Again, it's just my curiosity... I'm actually fine with having the one screen. I'll mount a suction cup at the base of the windshield and use my phone, or a dedicated ipad mini or something. If it ends up being that big of a deal, some brilliant person will develop an incredibly cool app to take the place of the second screen.
I wonder how he'll get away with saying those aren't the real steering controls it'll feel like a spaceship, it'll make more sense after the reveal, but no new consumer facing tech beyond what was shown in prototype? I'd guess it means that the steering wheel area improves (without new tech), but the "spaceship" part is due to some extraordinarily innovative UI on the center monitor.
These are not the real steering controls:
These are the real steering controls:
Mind two additional scrolls on the steering wheel.
He did say that it will make more sense after unveil #2. And he said at the day of the AP2 unveiling that this was the Model 3 unveil#2 he was talking about. And yes, it makes more sense if you let the car drive it self all the time. And yes, it will feels like a space ship that is cruising along and you have no part in "driving" the space ship, it has just got the route plotted in before it stats the trip.
So while this was not the answers we wanted, he gets away with it...
And no, I will not get the AP option, so it will not make any sense to me
Thanks for that. Now what changes could possibly make it feel like a spaceship? He obviously means some sci-fi idea of a spaceship from a novel or movie rather than what is in use today. And why would you want that in a car?
Depends on what one understands is being like a spaceship. In some futuristic sense it could mean controls are much different from usual cars.
Having almost everything on the touchscreen and/or good speech recognition could be described like that - 'car, close the windows', 'tess, lock the doors!', 'AP, take over please'.
What it will boil down to is something very simple but unusual (Model S and X are NOT usual).
Reciprocity
Active Member
One thing I would love is if you didn't ever have to touch the screen to navigate. Maybe this is coming with 8.1? I think reaching over to the far right of the screen while driving is a bit of a stretch for shorter women. I think it could be a bit of a compromise with no HUD. Does the screen tilt left/right?
PJFW8
Red Menace may hurt me
Keep in mind that Elon was talking of a single layer. Don't the S and X have a small area of double layer?
I say this with total sincerity: that is the most astute analysis I have seen to date of that issue! I think you very well may be spot on and I would not be at all disappointment noted if that turned out to be the case. Makes sense to me. Thanks.
Note: if Tesla introduces an improved, expanded, and more accurate voice control feature this year, than it really will be like piloting a sci-if spacecraft: "Computer, plot a course to Regulus IV." "Course plotted." "Engage."
Hands free operation.
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I guess I should butt in and comment on this. The extra height of the 2170 cells (which is a "free" density improvement) is exactly cancelled out by the smaller width/wheelbase of the Model 3. That makes the missing double stacked module area from the Model S play the biggest factor. So essentially that is a 14/16 = 87.5% factor.
How many kWh can they squeeze into the Model 3...?
I initially used the 100kWh pack to do the estimate which gives 87.5kWh for Model 3. However, that pack has cells more tightly packed. If Tesla uses a packing density more similar to the 90kWh pack, this means 78.75 kWh, which matches more closely to the 75kWh Elon was talking about.
I should note Elon worded the 75kWh carefully. He alluded that this was current technology. That leaves room for Tesla to introduce a larger pack further down the road.
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I´ll be picky. Not larger but with more capacity. 75 will be the full house. Extremely likely cells can´t be packed more densely after learning stuff from S X. Though more capable cells. Definitely.
Now I feel slighted. When I mentioned this in Feb your response was:
I'm taking my ball and going home.
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