It might be easier to produce a single size and software lock it but, even at an even $100 per kWh, that would be, at least, a couple thousand dollars of batteries they would give away for every one sold that did not unlock the full capacity. With modern production techniques, and the GF should be the most modern in the world, creating packs with different capacity should be a lot less expensive. Or, as was mentioned, they could produce a single pack size and fill with dummy cells for the lower capacity size.
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It might be easier to produce a single size and software lock it but, even at an even $100 per kWh, that would be, at least, a couple thousand dollars of batteries they would give away for every one sold that did not unlock the full capacity. With modern production techniques, and the GF should be the most modern in the world, creating packs with different capacity should be a lot less expensive. Or, as was mentioned, they could produce a single pack size and fill with dummy cells for the lower capacity size.
I seemed to have missed that part of the tweet
You beat me to it!
To the argument that it might be cheaper to make just one size pack and limit the base model in software, the cheapest of all will be to build one size package, and put dummy cells in the lower-rated versions, or even leave empty space. I think it is quite likely that all the battery packs will be the same externally, but with more or fewer cells. It will be trivial to have some empty modules that go into the pack for the base model.
Nobody's going to get "free" battery capacity. There's no benefit in it for Tesla, and they need all the cells they can produce for all the cars they want to build. It's just wishful thinking, "Maybe they'll give me some free batteries that I can unlock later."
All he said is that there would be no 100kWh battery for a Model 3, he didn't given any further information.
Why not 60/80/95? Or 60/75/95? Or 60/75/90?
Its a miracle that Elon's tweet was actually placed in an existing thread instead of starting on new one.
I think everyone was thinking 55kWh would be the base but I'm now going with 50kWh being the magic number to hit 215 miles of range. On top of that the 90kWh should not fit so I am guessing 50/65kWh and 70/85kWh options.
I think everyone was thinking 55kWh would be the base but I'm now going with 50kWh being the magic number to hit 215 miles of range. On top of that the 90kWh should not fit so I am guessing 50/65kWh and 70/85kWh options.
NCC-1701-T
To boldly go...
Base 60 would be good for me
Why three options? Why not just two?
Moar Powar
Polly Wog
Member
As many have already said, software limited batteries on the Model 3 is NOT going to happen. It became an option on the Model S and X to spur demand - which they clearly don't need to do for the Model 3. Tesla doesn't need to throw away precious resources (and profit margin) on such a high-volume vehicle. My guess would be 55/80, as they haven't used those numbers yet on the S or X. I guess we'll see in a few months (maybe?).
3Victoria
Active Member
While unlikely, one cannot rule out locked packs. For example, the pack might be unlocked for Tesla Network, or for some other reason, such as resale value. I suspect two pack sizes with Ludicrous optional on the biggest.
I can. Obviously, just an opinion, but I would be willing to bet $100 (face to face, not over the internet) that there will not be locked packs on the Model 3. It's not needed, with modular design it saves them nothing, it wastes resources, and it reduces much-needed profit margin.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I wonder how much money and time Tesla saves by limiting production lines to a somewhat larger pack that has capacity controlled by software.
If the modular argument is correct then I think you are right. How are are electric connections and cooling plumbing handled in a dummy module ?
At most a couple of person-months. Once done, it is totally controlled by robots. A small fixed cost, no cost per car. In order for it to make sense it would need to be thousands of dollars per car .(or a Billion in fixed costs) If Tesla can't make two (or three) different sized pack for less than multiple thousands of dollars, they have no business being in the car business.
Thank you kindly.
timk225
Active Member
Where is it written that the battery pack must be all in one unit under the car? Perhaps a modular plug-in secondary unit under the front or rear trunk as well?
The 3 base battery MUST beat the Bolts' range, because the average consumer grade ignoramus buying their first electric car isn't smart enough or technical enough to know why the 3 is superior to the Bolt, even with less range. All they know is what the news headlines say, and more miles = better as far as they know.
The 3 base battery MUST beat the Bolts' range, because the average consumer grade ignoramus buying their first electric car isn't smart enough or technical enough to know why the 3 is superior to the Bolt, even with less range. All they know is what the news headlines say, and more miles = better as far as they know.
Elon's tweet today was pretty clear on this.
"No, will be lower. Wheelbase can't fit 100."
Tesla Model 3 top battery pack option will be lower than 100 kWh, says Elon Musk
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Tesla appears willing to market battery sizes that differ by about 15% in range one from the next larger. In a Model 3 that starts at 50 - 55 kwh, the next size up then would require under 10 kWh more battery, or about $1000 - 1500 in material costs. That cost would then be reduced by the fraction of people who opt for the higher capacity at the time of car purchase, and further reduced (with profit margin) by any "up-sell" potential later on. One other advantage occurs to me in the software approach: customers who can only afford, but are hesitant to buy a base Tesla today out of concern that the range will turn out to be inadequate later on would be mollified by having an upgrade path.
How much time is involved in switching production lines ? I ask mostly because Tesla is highly motivated to push out cars fast to turn reservations into sales. How much downtime for retooling will Tesla accept to save money via the multiple real pack sizes approach ?
I certainly don't know the answer, but I'm inclined to think that this question is layered and non-obvious.
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I think Tesla thinks in terms of miles on a charge first (because that is how they market the car) and makes the battery pack to fit that purpose. The electrec article Tesla Model 3 top battery pack option will be lower than 100 kWh, says Elon Musk says that the premium Model 3 was to achieve a range of over 300 miles. That makes the largest battery approximately 40% larger than the base 215 mile version. If the base is 50 kw the premium would be approximately 70 kw. If Tesla thinks there is a big enough market for a car with a 260 mile range, it would offer a third size.
Tesla took 400,000 reservations with the 215 mile, $35,000 specifications. They have a lot of cost conscious buyers. Recently they have been simplifying the ordering process by bundling interior options. To fulfill the reservation demand, I would expect two sizes initially, the 215 and the 300 mile packs. The 215 miler for the cost conscious who do not take many long trips and the 300 for the less cost conscious who do take longer trips. Then as sales slow they might test demand for the mid-size pack.
Just my thinking. I am waiting for the Y.
Tesla took 400,000 reservations with the 215 mile, $35,000 specifications. They have a lot of cost conscious buyers. Recently they have been simplifying the ordering process by bundling interior options. To fulfill the reservation demand, I would expect two sizes initially, the 215 and the 300 mile packs. The 215 miler for the cost conscious who do not take many long trips and the 300 for the less cost conscious who do take longer trips. Then as sales slow they might test demand for the mid-size pack.
Just my thinking. I am waiting for the Y.
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