Model 3 Beta Prototypes

[Vitold]

Last year EM did not think that all suppliers will be ready by July - now it seems everyone thinks it's a possibility. How did everyone get so optimistic? Planning production in July is just that - planning. Just as Tesla did last year.

Things maybe more clearer but there are still unknowns such as stamping (Musk mentioned issues with the seat molds as an example). Production could be delayed by a quarter or two if things don't go as planned - and they rarely do.

In summary, you don't have to be short TSLA to think that production will not start in July.

 

[abelohlavek]

There was a short and low quality video of a dark grey one spotted in CA posted to Reddit today.

Link? I don't see anything on reddit...

 

[Model 3]

Last year EM did not think that all suppliers will be ready by July - now it seems everyone thinks it's a possibility. How did everyone get so optimistic?

Because Elon seems optimistic. But yes, there is absolutely no guarantee that it will start producing in July, but I'm confident it at least will be in Q3.

 

[aronth5]

Link? I don't see anything on reddit...

Uncertain if this is a Model 3 since it is very short video and too far away to be sure. Untitled

 

[Jason Bourne]

There was a short and low quality video of a dark grey one spotted in CA posted to Reddit today.

Link?

 

[abelohlavek]

Uncertain if this is a Model 3 since it is very short video and too far away to be sure. Untitled

Could be the matte black prototype they showed last year, but it's awfully short and far away to say for sure...

 

[boiler81]

I would think the beta prototypes would be heavily mask and tinted to hide the unrevealed exterior and interior final features. Also I would expect they would have visible AP2 hardware.

 

[dsvick]

I would think the beta prototypes would be heavily mask and tinted to hide the unrevealed exterior and interior final features. Also I would expect they would have visible AP2 hardware.

I don't know how easy the AP2 hardware will be to see unless you're right up on it and have the time to look.

 

[WileyTheMan]

Alpha vs Beta.

It's my understanding that Alpha protos are mostly complete, non-production products used for internal verification and testing by the manufacturer and selected partners. By this definition, these are the M3s that Tesla is producing now and for at least the next several months.

Betas are generally early production versions and are offered to select employees and customers for early debugging. By this definition, it won't be until at least July before Tesla is producing Beta M3s.

On a related note, one might suggest that all current Tesla owners are Beta testers. (With AP2, I certainly feel like one!)

Beta units have to be started by now. They couldn't apply for safety certifications or refine the manufacturing process without them.

Elon comes from the tech industry, so the nutshell definition of tech hardware/software alpha/beta is defined below:

1) Alpha phase products are for internal testing and are not "feature complete". Things can still change but the framework of the overall product is in place. This definition fits what we see with the units that were introduced in 2016.
2) Beta phase products are considered feature complete but still in test. They are still subject to debugging, but there will no longer be any changes unless critical issues are found. "Pencils down" (which Elon said happened months ago) is required in order for the beta phase to start.

Everything I'm hearing seems to indicate Tesla is following these project phases. Have no fear: There are currently beta units of the Model 3 in existence. Quantity and visibility is a whole different topic.

 

[dsvick]

Have no fear: There are currently beta units of the Model 3 in existence.

There may well be now, but as of the date of the filing (1 March 2017) they were still working on them...

"We expect that the next performance milestone to be achieved will be the successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype, which would be achieved upon the determination by our Board of Directors that an eligible prototype has been completed. Candidates for such prototype are among the vehicles that we are currently building as part of our ongoing testing of our Model 3 vehicle design and manufacturing processes.“

 

[croman]

I don't know how easy the AP2 hardware will be to see unless you're right up on it and have the time to look.

I own the hardware 2 and its pretty apparent (at least to me). I can easily distinguish HW1 vs. HW2. Look for two areas:

1. Side badge (pyramidal for HW2 with obvious recessed rear side view cameras; HW1 is a flat triangle). Both serve as blinkers.

2. B-Pillar oval that is obvious even at distance due to reflectiveness.

 

[lunitiks]

Could also check the driving

 

[boiler81]

I don't know how easy the AP2 hardware will be to see unless you're right up on it and have the time to look.

Yeah the integrated camera/side marker light would be noticeable as would the bumper mounted Ultrasonic sensors. Neither is present in the alpha prototypes

 

[FloridaJohn]

There may well be now, but as of the date of the filing (1 March 2017) they were still working on them...

"We expect that the next performance milestone to be achieved will be the successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype, which would be achieved upon the determination by our Board of Directors that an eligible prototype has been completed. Candidates for such prototype are among the vehicles that we are currently building as part of our ongoing testing of our Model 3 vehicle design and manufacturing processes.“

Wasn't that filing for end of year 2016? In other words, it only covered what happened through the end of the year, and not what happened from Jan 1, 2017 to Mar 1, 2017. I would expect the first quarter report to cover events between Jan 1 and Mar 31 of 2017.

 

[Wolverinegeoff]

If you read the Musk biography, this sounds pretty close to what they did with the S. Build a handful of alphas and then ship them around to different testing teams for cold weather trials, motor tuning, crash, etc. Very different from how Detroit works where they build hundreds. I wonder if the "final beta" candidates all just have minor differences in parts they will be making in house. Seems like the 1,000 parts he is expecting from suppliers must already be final design so that they can ramp up their own production capabilities by July.

 

[dsvick]

Wasn't that filing for end of year 2016? In other words, it only covered what happened through the end of the year, and not what happened from Jan 1, 2017 to Mar 1, 2017. I would expect the first quarter report to cover events between Jan 1 and Mar 31 of 2017.

Yes, but it was released last week and the way it was worded made it sound as if they were referring to it as "at the time of this writing". Which is also how most news agencies seem to have reported it as well.

 

[bigdaddie]

We picked up our MS P100D at the Fremont factory on Jan 25th. We did the tour and drove by the Model 3 assembly line. Let me first say that I don't know squat about building an assembly line; however, it sure looked like they had more than a month of work to do. My guess would be June/July because even after the line is fully assembled, I'm sure there is much tweaking to do after that.

Just IMHO

 

[S3XY]

There may well be now, but as of the date of the filing (1 March 2017) they were still working on them...

"We expect that the next performance milestone to be achieved will be the successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype, which would be achieved upon the determination by our Board of Directors that an eligible prototype has been completed. Candidates for such prototype are among the vehicles that we are currently building as part of our ongoing testing of our Model 3 vehicle design and manufacturing processes.“

They have already built some prototypes in February. They will be run through some testing which will determine if they are the betas. If they aren't then they will make some tweaks, do some testing, determine whether it's a beta, rinse, repeat. In other words, what makes the build a beta is the fact that the BoD agrees that a given prototype meets the standard to be called a beta. Until they make that determination a prototype is just a prototype.

 

[EVNow]

It sounds like they are much closer than that:

“We expect that the next performance milestone to be achieved will be the successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype, which would be achieved upon the determination by our Board of Directors that an eligible prototype has been completed. Candidates for such prototype are among the vehicles that we are currently building as part of our ongoing testing of our Model 3 vehicle design and manufacturing processes.“

It is possible Tesla does this different from traditional manufacturers. Tesla is likely to iterate much faster - and call a version they like Beta, rather than the more methodical (and laborious) process traditional OEMs would use.

 

[N5329K]

I'm guessing the term "Beta" means something different to a traditional auto manufacturer. They build Betas and keep them inhouse, under lock and key, until most of the wrinkles are basically ironed flat. In Silicon Valley, "ship date" is God (using the same imagery, your Burn Rate would be the Devil). When that date arrives, ready or not, you push the product out to the initial customers (in sky diving, they'd be called "wind dummies"). These wind dummies are your Betas. When stuff freezes up, doesn't work, crashes, you send out patches. Eventually, stuff works more or less.
That may be the model Tesla feels compelled to follow, given that there is just not enough time left between now and July to do Betas in the traditional way. Tesla is a non-traditional company, so maybe non-traditional product development will work out. In any event, selling the initial run to employees suggests that building early and fast, shipping on time and then fixing is the plan.
Robin