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Model 3 build out

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Bluejuice, Mar 24, 2016.

  1. Bluejuice

    Bluejuice Member

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    Any idea how many Model 3's Tesla thinks it can build in it's first year? I know they want 500,000 total cars by 2020, but what about Model 3's in 2018?
     
  2. Fiver

    Fiver Member

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    15-20,000.
     
  3. wbrumfiel

    wbrumfiel Member

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    For those that have been through this. How long before we get an invite to design are the prices available? I'd like to be able to know what I can/can't afford prior to them saying go. As much as I'd love to tick all the boxes that just won't be happening.
     
  4. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    Prices and options have typically been shown about two months prior to the beginning of production. Tesla will be pushing it with the Model 3. Unless you are in the first 500, I wouldn't worry. You will have plenty of time to decide your configuration, know the pricing, and get a test drive.

    Fiver: "15-20,000"

    No way. The Model 3 will be a much quicker ramp. 50,000 to 100,000 for 2018 as long as production begins in 2017 as Tesla says it will. I will grant you that this is a much more tricky balancing act with the battery factory but Tesla can't afford to be flaky about this one. 200K+ for 2019 and we shall see what they pull off in 2020.

    I wish Tesla good luck. This will not be an easy thing to do.
     
  5. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

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    I think this will be only shortly before the first in line get access to the design studio.

    If you are not a priority purchaser (employee or current owner) this will be months, if not years before you will be getting your car.

    As we say in Germany : Vorfreude ist die beste Freude (Anticipation is the best joy)
    So enjoy it!
     
    • Like x 1
  6. Fiver

    Fiver Member

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    Yea, well, the X was going to be a crazy fast ramp too. Also they said during the earnings call a quarter or two back that 3 production was dependent on "a fully functioning gigafactory". The factory is ahead of schedule, but it won't be "fully functioning" in 2018 that's for sure. The may have the NUMMI factory space to build the cars, but they will need a boat load of batteries to make 100,000 in 2018 and I don't see that happening.

    They will get there, but it won't be quite as fast a ramp as you think. I could see them hitting 100,000 in 2019 though.
     
  7. Jersey Shore Tom

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    I think the fully functioning Gigafactory is needed for the 2020 goal of 500,000 cars per year, not during the first year of production. Unfortunately, I don't have a link.
     
  8. tga

    tga Active Member

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    I would not be surprised to see the first Model 3 shipments to be high margin, highly optioned PxxD's. These cars could have enough profit that Tesla could sell them with non-GF batteries (such as ones from Panasonic Japan). So I'm not so sure initial Model 3 shipments are gated by the GF (although it's supposed to be ahead of schedule, anyway).
     
  9. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    The Model X is a very unique case that will have little in common with the Model 3. There were very specialized parts and testing that needed to be done to get the "most difficult car ever built" into production. The Model 3, on the other hand, will not be so specialized that it will create difficult production problems to overcome. It will not be easy, but it will be a lot easier than either the Model S and especially the Model X.

    I have no inside knowledge but the design team are starting from the point that they know they intend to build 500K of the car. As a group of very smart and innovative people I expect these people to focus on mass production concepts, not highly specialized concepts. Tesla will do that, but it is something they can always add on later.

    I actually agree that the choke point for the Model 3 will be the batteries. I don't think they will have too much of a problem making the batteries. I expect the issue will be keeping costs down. A "a fully functioning gigafactory" means that they are sourcing all the materials as raw materials from local sources. It might take them a number of years to get that process down fully. I think 100K cars in 2018 is possible. Difficult, but possible.
     
  10. EinSV

    EinSV Member

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    I would guess somewhere in the range of 75,000-125,000 Model 3s delivered in 2018, if they are able to deliver at least a few in late 2017. And much higher than that n 2019.

    Model X is a far more complicated vehicle with a much smaller factory capacity than Model 3 will have. They will probably deliver 30,000+ Model Xs this year, with the factory running at full capacity in the second half of the year. The delivery ramp-up has accelerated significantly for the last couple weeks of March and Tesla seems to be well on its way to hitting full capacity by the end of Q2 as forecast.

    The gigafactory should not be an issue for Model 3 ramp.
     
  11. ElectricTundra

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    There have been a few hints that they are currently building two new lines in Fremont and one in Tilburg. Have people seen anything on factory tours that would confirm this? I think Tilburg has been only final assembly so will it become a full manufacturing site?

    The completed Giga Factory 1 was supposed to be able to produce batteries for something like 125k cars per year plus power wall? Does it scale so that 1/5 factory can produce batteries for about 1/5 as many cars & powerwalls?
     

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