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Model 3 - Canada Delivery Prediction

Discussion in 'Canada' started by wayner, Apr 19, 2017.

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  1. wayner

    wayner Active Member

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    Sorry to come to this late, but consider the example of the Model X. The first official delivery was at the end of Sep 2015 so that Tesla could make their Q3-2015 deadline. But they didn't start shipping in volume until 2016 as they only delivered 212 vehicles by the end of 2015. I don't believe that the first Model X's were delivered in Canada until June of 2016 - about 8.5 months after the first official delivery. So even if Tesla does make the 2017 deadline for delivery then I wouldn't expect to see any Model 3s delivered in Canada until very late in 2018. And if you expect to get yours in 2018 then you better be right at the top of the list and hope that they do a Canadian production run before we get too far into the year.
     
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  2. dchuck

    dchuck Member

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    @SMSMD - That is a reasonable assumption If Tesla already has a good working relationship with Ivanhoe why bother finding another location. Not to mention its proximity to the highway and the airport makes it a better choice than South Edmonton Common or Southgate.

    The only beef i have with both locations is that they are on the wrong side of the highway. It would have made more sense to have the Supercharger on the northbound side in Edmonton since it is the folks from Red Deer and Calgary traveling north that will need to Supercharge. Same with southbound, I will need a charge when i get to Calgary so Crossiron is on the wrong side for my purposes.

    Talk about First world problems though... I am just glad there will be a Supercharger around when i get my Model 3. Another 5-10 minutes is fine with me either way. :)

    Elon/Tesla has acknowledged on more than one occasion that the Model X roll out was not ideal. I don't think it is fair to compare the Model 3 roll out considering the problems Tesla had with the falcon wing doors. Add to that the fact they are only focusing on production this time and not adding features they should be able to ramp up production a hell of a lot faster than they did with the Model X.

    I can only think of two reasons why I would not get my car in the first half of 2018. First is the tax situation in the US. They may delay delivery of Canadian cars until the 2nd half of the year so they can deliver as many cars to US buyers as possible. That entirely depends on when they get to 200k sales, 2017 or 2018. Second there is always a chance that something unforeseen happens, Like a Fire at the factory.

    If you believe that Tesla is trying to produce 500,000 cars in 2018 and if you discount that by 20-30% (Tesla is well known for being overtly optimistic) that is still 350,000 cars in 2018, more than enough to get some cars into markets outside the US. Heck Elon Tweeted in March that Tesla will start producing right hand drive Model 3's in Summer 2018. You have to assume they would have to be though a good portion of the North American backlog before starting a different configuration of the Model 3.

    I reserved at 10:30am on the 31st. I would guess there were a couple of hundred people ahead of me in line at the Calgary store (There was a board for people to sign after they reserved and my rough count was at least 200 signatures) Where that puts me in the Canadian queue is anyone's guess.
     
  3. cmt489

    cmt489 Member

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    Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't there also a huge delay due to Transport Canada approvals and it took much longer than anticipated because of it's weight?
     
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  4. wayner

    wayner Active Member

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    Even delivering 350,000 vehicles in 2018 will be a huge stretch - Tesla only delivered 76,000 vehicles in 2016, and I believe they are aiming for around 100,000 in 2017. Jumping up to 350,000 is a huge jump and not easy to do logistically - it isn't easy to grow any company that quickly given the increased requirements for labour, logistics management, etc.

    There can be a few other factors at work as well:
    1. What options do you plan to have on your Model 3? Tesla may prioritize Model 3s that have all of the bells and whistles and provide more revenue, and a higher gross profit margin, than more basic models. I ordered my P85D shortly after the D was announced. If you wanted delivery within three months you needed to get the P85D - delivery was much longer on the S85 or S85D and you needed to get air suspension. I didn't care about getting air suspension so that wasn't in my config - but they called me and said that if I didn't want Air Suspension then my delivery would be pushed back from late December to March.
    2. Tesla may prioritize getting models to the US market first since that is their home, and by far, the largest market and the one watched most closely by Wall Street analysts. Canadian deliveries may get low priority.
    3. Production runs - I don't know what is involved in switching over the production line to produce Canadian vehicles. Maybe it is nothing other than different airbag stickers and software but they may not want to bother with having to switch over the production line if it does entail some down time.
     
  5. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Active Member

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    @wayner They are aiming for 100,000 Model S/X vehicles. There should be a significant number of Model 3s delivered this year as well. (I would guess somewhere between 100k-200k.)
     
  6. wayner

    wayner Active Member

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    Tesla hopes to begin deliveries of the Model 3 in late 2017. In Elon-speak that usually means late in the day on December 31, 2017. Do you really think they could deliver 200,000 in 2017? Even if they can make the Model 3 at a production rate of 500k/yr it would take 5 months to produce 200,000. So that would assume they start making them in early August and go from a production rate of 0 to 500k/year - both very unrealistic assumptions. Has any auto maker ever ramped up capacity that quickly? I believe that Elon hoped that they could get to a rate of 500,000 in 2018, not this year, and even that is doubtful.

    I really hope that I am wrong, but there is no way that they will be able to produce anywhere near 200,000 Model 3s in 2017. And even if they did how would they be able to service them? Think about the implications for Tesla's Service Centers. Could they deliver at that rate? What if there was any maintenance to be done due to a recall - here in Toronto they are really stretched at the Service Centers. Think about then doubling the number of Teslas on the road in a matter of months.
     
  7. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Active Member

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    200,000 is on the really high side and unlikley. Elon said "So, when we place parts orders with our suppliers, we’ve told them 1,000 a week in July, 2,000 a week in August, and 4,000 a week in September" assuming that they meet that schedule and don't speed up any after September that is 76,000 cars. (Yeah they might not get the cars made in the last week of December actually delivered, so the number would likely be less.)

    As far as servicing them there should be a lot less service needed, and they have already said that most, 90% if I recall correctly, service can be done by Rangers, and that is where they are planning on going. I'm not sure Canada will see any Model 3s until sometime in 2018, so I wouldn't worry about that right now.
     
  8. dchuck

    dchuck Member

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    Tesla has only stated they want to produce 50,000 Model S/X's in the first half of 2017, They did not, as far as i know, make a projection for the 2nd half of 2017 because of the unknowns around the Model 3. Though 100,000 S/X's in 2017 should be achievable given that Q1 was 25k.

    As far as options go i'll buy whatever is available. For example I would like to get AWD but if it is not available when i can configure i will just get RWD instead of waiting.

    As far as production differences, between Canada and the US, the only ones i can think of are Seat belts (the Release latches have to be Red in color), Plus Speedo, and day time running lights (both are just software) Their might be some emissions testing differences but that will not matter for the Model 3. At any rate i doubt it will be anything near as many changes as a car destined for England.
     
  9. TLej

    TLej Little-Known Member

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    Emissions testing?
     
  10. Canuck

    Canuck Well-Known Member

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    The Western Canada Supercharger thread is being derailed with this topic so I thought I'd start this thread to discuss this issue.

    If a mod could move those posts over here, that would be great. It started with exchange:

    Now we're onto red seat belt buttons -- required? or are white ones fine?...

    Western Canada Superchargers

    Hopefully we can move it over here so people looking for supercharger updates don't have to read about red seat belt buttons. Plus, it makes for an interesting topic deserving of its own thread.
     
  11. Canuck

    Canuck Well-Known Member

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    #11 Canuck, Apr 20, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2017
    Here's another issue. We are told that basic cars (no D or P) will be delivered first, which I am not interested in. By the time it comes to Canada, do you think we can order the D or P, or both, or none?
     
  12. dmd2005

    dmd2005 Member

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    I just picked up our family road tripping X a month ago, so I'm in no rush for a fully loaded P and D 3 with ludicrous mode. Hopefully, my S wheels/tires will fit the 3.

    Considering the 1st X in Canada was about 7 months after US deliveries we'll see the first 3 spring /summer of 2018 and I'd expect P and D versions available by then.
     
  13. wayner

    wayner Active Member

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    Why is that? I know that when I went to buy a D that P versions were available way quicker than the basic cars. And it makes a ton of sense for Tesla to deliver the most expensive Model 3s first as that helps to juice their revenue and profit which they need to support an extremely lofty stock valuation.
     
  14. sitter_k

    sitter_k Member

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    Someone in the model 3 section suggested that since first deliveries to employees and Cali/west coast that D motor wouldn't be as popular and that they want to maximize deliveries for 2017.
     
  15. dchuck

    dchuck Member

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    Thanks for creating a separate thread Canuck.

    I could have swore that Red was a requirement in Canada, i know it is in Europe. but I could be wrong.

    One would hope by mid 2018 all of the options would be available including AWD and Performance/Ludacris.

    Even more likely if you and Wayner are right and they don't start shipping to Canada until the second half/end of 2018.
     
  16. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    Moved a bunch of stuff over...
     
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  17. SmartElectric

    SmartElectric Active Member

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    I made my Model 3 reservation on March 31st 2016 5PM in Toronto, and am an existing owner.
    My expectation is mid-2018 for the dual motor Model 3 availability in Canada based on the many factors outlined in this and other threads.
    If an option to get a RWD Model 3 earlier comes up, I will do whatever makes sense to delay ordering till AWD is available.

    We love our RWD Tesla S85, there are no issues at all in winter as we have Hakka R2's on it from Nov-Apr.
    I just want AWD for the handling and performance aspects on corner exit in any weather, let alone winter.

    Then again, if we didn't already have a Tesla, I'd take the first Model 3 they could sell me.
     
  18. Canuck

    Canuck Well-Known Member

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    It seemed that way a year ago:

    Tesla Model 3 Debuts March 31st, Higher Options Cars Made First

    But this is the latest:

    Tesla Model 3 will not be available with all-wheel-drive dual motors at launch, says Elon Musk

    But it might not make a difference for AWD in Canada:
    But I want performance too and the article goes on to read:
    Mid-2018 for Eastern Canada? I hope you're right but I think that's best case for Western Canada.
     
  19. wayner

    wayner Active Member

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    Maybe this belongs in the Service Centre thread but is there any indication that Tesla is thinking about the ramifications to their Service Centres of doubling the fleet of Teslas on the road in the space of 12 or so months assuming that they can start delivering M3s in large volume? I don't know if the addition of the Oakville SC has eased things off but the existing SCs in Toronto were extremely overburdened, nevermind the fact that they still haven't opened long-promised SCs in Ottawa or Calgary. Imagine the stress on the system of having to deliver a ton of M3s in a short period of time, and then being able to deal with any minor issues that may arise - like a recall (Tesla just announced today a recall of 53k vehicles).
     
  20. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    If history is any guide... it will be chaos at first. Then things will gradually even out.
     
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