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Darryl
ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm
Based on history it won't happen. It took 4-5 months for Service Center to get Model X for showroom. There are too many people who will buy it sight unseen.
Garlan Garner
Banned
History?
Any company or consumer that believes that they will/should match historical activity is destined to fail. Improvement = positively change the current/future roadmap based on the past roadmap. Tesla has done this on many fronts and I have no doubt that their future will be a vast improvement on the past - NOT THAT the past was horrible.
They might have one in the store or they might not. The number of orders show they don't need one in the store.
Having a car in a store or not having a car in a store is neither good nor bad. For goodness sake, they sold over 300,000 M3's without anyone visually seeing one....let alone sitting in one.
No, no it can't. At least not as much as you seem to think. There are certain steps in the process that simply take time and can't be rushed or expedited. Parts need to be tested, this take time and testing cycles, money can't make that happen any faster. The assembly line has to be designed, I'd much rather they take their time and get that right. And they can't even start designing some of the line until all the testing is done. The robots and machines for the assembly line have to designed and ordered, that can only be sped up so much. Then the line has to be built, I bet to a large extent it has to be done one piece at a time then that piece tested before the next can be added.
Tesla has already said they are doubling the speed that they are going to ramp up production, if that doesn't tell you how serious they are I'm not sure what else you could possibly want as proof. In the last quarterly conference call Elon said everything was on schedule, he'll probably say something at the next one as well. Until they reach some significant milestones there simply isn't much to report. They certainly aren't going to start issuing daily updates. I don't see them posting tweets like "Today Sally in engineering began the stress test for the door hinges.", or "Todd in design found a lovely shade of burgundy that we'll consider for trim options.".
Be patient, it'll come ...
Chopr147
Active Member
I'm sorry to hear you don't think they will do this. I follow Sally on Twitter.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
I actually started following random Tesla employees for this, but surprisingly they are extremely quiet. Probably under NDAs
Wait! What!? There really is a Sally? I was being facetious.
But no, I don't think they're going to report on every little detail between now and the start of production. Why would they subject themselves to the endless speculating, negative press, deliberate misconstruing, and general hassle of doing that? They have better things to do - let them do it.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Tesla said that they have ramped up production on the MS and MX. They were all in on 4th quarter results. Don't mix the 2.
I'm not impatient. I'm realistic. I'm not trying to rush them or anything.
I appreciate your response, however you keep saying things like "I'll think", or I believe or I'll bet...... That's all fine and good, however I'm looking for evidence. Elon said everything was on schedule for the MX for about a year after it was supposed to be in production. Maybe it wasn't his fault, however when you are the CEO its always your fault. I know that first hand.
The only part of testing that you can't throw money at are things like aging and things pertaining to biological growth. Other than that...I have been able to move everything and everyone in my business with money. Ii don't always approve of that tactic, however it works when you have enough.
NOW if you deal with vendors who don't care about money....then you either have to find another vendor or deal with it. For instance. TIRES. Tesla doesn't buy enough tires from their vendor to put any financial pressure on them. As a matter of fact.....I don't believe there is any tire vendor out there that can be influenced by financial threats. Tesla just isn't a large enough vendor yet. So...I get somewhat what you are saying, however there are other financially provocative ways of influence that isn't appropriate for a forum, but are however legal in nature.
I'm cool. There is nothing I can do about anything if I wasn't cool.
That's the horrible thing about texting and forums.....you can't see the lack of emotion in a person. Why do you think I'm impatient?
Garlan Garner
Banned
Maybe they don't care. Maybe they just work at Tesla for a pay check...
For example: I work where I work for a paycheck. THATS ALL.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Well, they didn't realize the size of demand until April 1. They announced a two-year pull-in on volume production May 1 - which means they probably spent April determining if it was even possible to do that. I'm sure they placed a bunch of equipment orders over the next month or two, as they had to build out almost an entire production floor. That equipment has a leadtime - and Tesla may simply not be big enough to be able to impact that leadtime. They didn't have "pencils down" on the design until late July, which limits the amount of vendor selection and ordering they could do before then. They allocated money for 300 sets of parts in August. We've been able to watch construction on the Gigafactory, where reports are that they have 1700 construction workers and 850 employees. Who knows how much of that needs to be built in order to provide sufficient batteries to build a significant quantity of Model 3's. We know that the Fremont factory build-out is going on from reports from people taking the factory tour.
So how much money do you think they have to spend throwing at the problem to speed things up? And how much more do you want them to throw at it? They're building one factory from the ground up, and a second from bare walls and floors. They're buying brand-new robots and other equipment for the factories. They can't install the equipment until they've designed a production floor, and (by the way) poured the concrete for that production floor and put a roof over it. They're working with potentially hundreds of suppliers, whose processes are tuned for normal auto-industry multi-year marches to production, and trying to convince them to shorten their cycle time to half or a quarter of what they're used to.
This isn't a normal "speed up the manufacturing flow" problem. Frankly, if I get my 3 by Christmas next year, what they will have done will be almost miraculous.
So how much money do you think they have to spend throwing at the problem to speed things up? And how much more do you want them to throw at it? They're building one factory from the ground up, and a second from bare walls and floors. They're buying brand-new robots and other equipment for the factories. They can't install the equipment until they've designed a production floor, and (by the way) poured the concrete for that production floor and put a roof over it. They're working with potentially hundreds of suppliers, whose processes are tuned for normal auto-industry multi-year marches to production, and trying to convince them to shorten their cycle time to half or a quarter of what they're used to.
This isn't a normal "speed up the manufacturing flow" problem. Frankly, if I get my 3 by Christmas next year, what they will have done will be almost miraculous.
I got the impression that you were from the number of times you've posted this sort of question.
Your posting the question on an internet forum, you didn't really expect anyone here to have real answers did you?
If you want facts you'll need to stick to the Tesla blogs, press releases, and news conferences.
We'll have to agree to disagree on that point, there are plenty of things that probably could be done faster but probably shouldn't be. They had to design an entire assembly line, sure you could throw money at it and have several people working on it at the same time but that just increases the amount of communication needed between them and increases the chance of errors or mistakes without greatly improving the overall completion time.
I trust they know well enough what they're doing and are working as hard and as fast as they can reasonably be expected to.
However, on the flip side they had a Model S available for test drives in my local showroom in the first couple months after shipping only a few hundred cars, so who knows. (They also had test drive events you could sign up for before they even started shipping the Model S.)
Garlan Garner
Banned
How many people believe that Tesla is operating the same exact way they did when the MS came online?
However, I will say this. As of this moment...there is no reason to have a M3 in stores. Tesla has sold (through reservations) more than a years worth of production of M3's already. So they really aren't having to promote the M3.
A significant number of people will probably delay their order until they can at least see the car in person. I certainly will. I ordered before the reveal, but I'm not plunking down 40-50K on an unseen car. So no, they haven't sold that many cars.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Where is your reference to the significant number. My reference is the 400K+ reservationists.
I'm all in. ALL boxes checked.
When I said 300K orders....that leaves 100K waiters such as yourself. SO....yes...they have sold that many cars.
So far....that's an official 1 purchase and 1 wait.
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I also made my reservation before the reveal.
If it came down to "Order now (before seeing the vehicle in person) or lose your place in line", idk what I'd do.
But I certainly hope it doesn't come to that. And I hope that Tesla will make all reasonable efforts to avoid putting their customers in that position.
So, 1 Purchase, 1 Wait, 1 Not Sure.
(Also, maybe this has been covered elsewhere, but do we know if it will be possible to "delay" an order once your spot in line comes up without forfeiting your spot in line completely? And how might that work?
For example, would it be like: if you get to the front of a line at a busy club but don't want to go in just yet, so you step to the side for a moment and let people behind you pass, but once you decide to go in you just cut right back in the front of the line?
Or would you have to go to the back of the line?)
ricardocabesa
STD free
I think you are absolutely wrong. Some might,but not a "significant number". I certainly won't. And Tesla will give you the opportunity to delay your order once,at their discretion IMO.
Garlan Garner
Banned
If Tesla made "calendar year" cars, I might hesitate.....but they don't. The MS is fantastic and so is the MX...so my confidence is extremely high.
Even if Tesla produced the M3 reveal 1 car.... I would purchase it. For me...it can only get better.
If it looked like this: that would just be over the top. Thank God....NO HUD. That top display recesses itself down in into the console when no in use. . HEY!!!! that kinda looks like a spaceship.
Simple simple ~ easy to manufacture.
Or even this: If they want to stick with a standard look.
Even if Tesla produced the M3 reveal 1 car.... I would purchase it. For me...it can only get better.
If it looked like this: that would just be over the top. Thank God....NO HUD. That top display recesses itself down in into the console when no in use. . HEY!!!! that kinda looks like a spaceship.
Simple simple ~ easy to manufacture.
Or even this: If they want to stick with a standard look.
