Foxhound199
Member
My heart goes out to you, it truly does.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
+1.
Given Tesla's terrible forecasting though, anything based on their forecasts will be inaccurate.
emlombardo
Member
Mine said March 31st for the longest time. I'm expected to take delivery on March 24th. I know it's just an anecdote but when I got my delivery date this was the first thing that I thought of.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Mine started in November. Now says May.
My guess is for people on the west coast (and in line on 31st), the estimate has moved the most.
mod note: moved some posts to snippiness because I didn't have a better place to put them. Let's stay away from drama surrounding fake internet points and stick to the discussion about the estimator/deliveries.
coconutboy84
Member
I see tonight that Troy was banned. I can't say I'm surprised after the recent Dislike drama. Nonetheless, I wanted to stop back in here and mention that all Troy's tracking & estimating work, however accurate or inaccurate it may be, is/was appreciated.
Agreed. checking his estimated dates kept me marginally sane for a few weeks in February. I realized his estimates were constantly changing, but I understood that the input data was also constantly changing, so I knew enough to take the estimates with a grain of salt.
Regarding Troy's ban (unclear if it is temporary or permanent at the moment), the whole situation is very unfortunate and basically very childish and silly. I too found his estimator to be very useful and it appears to be pretty accurate for my reservation so far. I'm sure his estimator will still be available as I believe he advertised it on M3OC and reddit as well.
I'm guessing his infatuation with the like to dislike ratio is partly to blame. Unbeknownst to me, I was on his ignore list after disagreeing with one of his posts from over a year ago. His speculation in said post ended up being correct, but still...
As for the estimator, based on a pacific time delivery, I should have received an invite today, but internal delays likely ensured that didn't happen.
As for the estimator, based on a pacific time delivery, I should have received an invite today, but internal delays likely ensured that didn't happen.
sundaymorning
Active Member
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
It's been about 9 months now. Do you need a few more weeks or are you willing to concede that they might not get to 30,000 model 3 delivered by the end of this month?
I didn't expect it to be this slow a ramp so don't take this as an I told you so. Specifically I only said they had options, I didn't say this was likely or that I predicted it to be this slow.
But ironically the dislike debate had me going back through this thread and I found our discussion and it happens to be about 9 months later.
It's looking like Tesla might hit 10,000 or so by the point you said they wouldn't do under 30,000.
To be sure I would have been happy to see more than 30,000 model 3 by this point. My shares of TSLA would have soared. And the world would be a better place with the reservation list shorter by tens of thousands of happy Tesla owners.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
you don't normally, unless the person posts saying that you are. In Vinnie97 and several other people's case Troy made a list and posted it.
Yep, I was wrong. I figured it was almost guaranteed to have 30k Model 3s by the end of this month, but that obviously isn't going to happen. It looks like I am going to be off by 2-3 months. Possibly more. Of all the things to be a bottleneck I didn't expect it to be the battery pack production...
Yea, special case. He must've clicked "view post" on one of my recent postings in here (I was fielding questions about my estimate) because he contacted me directly about one of my old dislikes from a year ago (he was dead-on accurate of course, but I simply voiced disagreement at the time because I foolishly thought/hoped the battery pack option would be greater than 75
).
RTPEV
Active Member
Yep, I was wrong. I figured it was almost guaranteed to have 30k Model 3s by the end of this month, but that obviously isn't going to happen. It looks like I am going to be off by 2-3 months. Possibly more. Of all the things to be a bottleneck I didn't expect it to be the battery pack production...
The battery pack production is the "public" bottleneck, and possibly somewhat of a scapegoat. I think it's actually probably just a combination of many different elements. And I don't mean to sound like I'm knocking Tesla. I just think all the naysayers out there (and maybe some of Tesla management!) like to think of Tesla as an established automaker. They re not. 10 years ago they didn't produce any cars. Between the Roadster, Model S/X, and now the Model 3 they have increased production rates by ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE! This is an incredible accomplishment. But it's very hard. You aren't going to suddenly grow from 1000 cars/week to 10000 cars/week in the course of 6 months, even though other carmakers that have been around for 60-100 years easily make 10 times even that. It really is going to take time and learning, not just money and will. (BTW, I have the same argument for the established carmakers that think they will be able to create their own Supercharger network overnight--not gonna happen folks...it's gonna be 3-4 years MINIMUM after we START seeing the first high speed charging networks from the competition before they will truly be competitive). Anyway, of course the ramp has been far slower than we all hoped for, but this is probably a realistic ramp. And even though looking at it day to day like we are now it may seem like they're stuck, they're not. Things are improving and as Elon said initially, it will look like a stair step of production rate increases. It's just been awhile since the last step, and I'm thinking that once we hit it, it might be a big one.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Totally agree with this outlook. We as reservation holders have created a lot of expectations (not helped by some optimistic estimates from the company itself) that just very well may prove not to be possible. Not that they won't ever get there...just maybe not in the time span we have created in our minds.
Dan
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