Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Troy]

...but noticed your spreadsheet is not basing CA on the 24.4% you listed here, but 28.5% of global

No, the sheet uses these percentages:

California 24.90%
Pacific excluding CA 3.34%
Mountain 4.85%
Central 6.12%
Eastern 18.54%

You can see these on Data1 tab cell P2 here. The sheet reads the numbers from these cells in column P. Tesla published their global numbers and 2014, 2015 and Q3 2016 USA sales. CNCDA publishes Tesla's California numbers. So there was lots of data to work with. For the rest of USA regions, I looked at service center numbers in each region.

 

[melindav]

No, the sheet uses these percentages:

California 24.90%
Pacific excluding CA 3.34%
Mountain 4.85%
Central 6.12%
Eastern 18.54%

You can see these on Data1 tab cell P2 here. The sheet reads the numbers from these cells in column P. Tesla published their global numbers and 2014, 2015 and Q3 2016 USA sales. CNCDA publishes Tesla's California numbers. So there was lots of data to work with. For the rest of USA regions, I looked at service center numbers in each region.

but that is not the percentages that are populated the form then or I forgot how to do math 123,062/431,155 is .285 not .242

ETA: ah - wait... it should be the 471121 not the 431155...... ok, no, thats 26%

 

[ModelNforNerd]

How "launch orders" are defined will made a difference. Some think that means in store before noon, some think in store prior to the event, or any on 3/31 in store, or 3/31 in store & online, March 31 & April 1st, the first weekend thru April 3rd or thru April, etc...

Personally, I think it will be thru the weekend with around 270k reservations, minus however many of those Tesla weeded out or otherwise canceled - lets say 5k, minus 10% for a second reservation (Tesla having said one would come in the initial wave and the second reservation would follow) brings the first weekend 'first' car reservations to about 238,500~.

I started to look at breaking this down by CA, West-Non-CA, Mtn, Central, Eastern but noticed your spreadsheet is not basing CA on the 24.4% you listed here, but 28.5% of global (using a reservation placed this morning at 12:00a). how are you calculating the percentage for each region? (West-non CA 3.8%, Mtn 5.5%, Central 7%, East 21.2% from spreadsheet).

Using these percentages, and my assumptions of the first weekend reservations reduced to single reservations and the weeding:
totalling 157,409 US first weekend, first reservation cars. if all are done under the 5000/week plan, that is 31 weeks.

CA 67,972 - 13.5 weeks
West 9,063 - 2 weeks
Mountain 13,117 - 2.5 weeks
Central 16,695 - 3.5 weeks
East 50,562 - 10 weeks​

all of course a WAG at this point

But they've also said that by September, they hope to start pushing towards 10k/week....so hopefully once they burn through employees orders and the "local area current owners", the ramp will pick up, and it won't take nearly as long to get through most of these "launch orders".

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody.
Please recheck your estimate again. There was an error in calculations. It's fixed now.

@melindav, I've checked why the percentages didn't match. It turns out, I was using the wrong column that included employee cars. I have now corrected this. Thanks for spotting that.

Here is why the error happened: Let's say somebody placed a reservation on 31st March 2016 at 9 am in the morning. I didn't want to tell this person that his reservation number was something like 7,697 including employees. Instead, I wanted to show them that they were #1 reservation holder. I think this would be less confusing and it is what people would expect to see. Unfortunately, this made a few things more tricky.

 

[melindav]

For the rest of USA regions, I looked at service center numbers in each region.

this site gives actual state by state BEV sales numbers cumulative from 2011-2016.
CA 257,937
West 36,665
Mountain 22,898
Central 49,474
East 151,447
total 518,421 (continental US - sorry HI/AK)

 

[NikeWings]

Cool estimator @Troy .
I just plugged in data as if I ordered today - M3 75D - and the results estimate a mid Nov 2017 production/delivery. Really? Am i misinterpreting the outputs? I thought I had missed the boat, but I might as well jump in @ CA sequence # 6850 (gobal sequence 14,546).

 

[FlatSix911]

Here is my calculated delivery date based on my local CA reservation time:

Here is my actual reservation number based on hidden data from Tesla: 407918-371000 = 36,918

 

[NikeWings]

So,I am comparing 9,318 to 407,000+ ?
That would put me around 700,000+ Tesla use LIFO by any chance?

 

[Troy]

@NikeWings,
Check out Elon's Model 3 tweetstorm here. Some of the questions were about owner priorities and based on Elon's answers, my understanding is that a Tesla owner reserving any time before production starts will have priority over non-owners who waited in line on day one. Therefore, the estimator works like that too.

Don't worry about the 407,000 FlatSix911 mentioned. Apparently, to hide the real meaning of reservation numbers the Tesla site used to display, they added some artificial numbers like 350,000 or 370,000.

@FlatSix911,
It looks like the estimator shows 37,114 as your reservation number and you are calculating 36,918 based on hidden numbers the website used to display. If that's the case, the numbers are pretty close. I have actually checked those sheets about the hidden reservation numbers and integrated some of the data. For example, the cells Data1!AP4 and Data1!AP5 here are based on the hidden reservation numbers.

@melindav,
Thanks for the link. That autoalliance website looks interesting. However, I noticed a problem. There are about a dozen ZEV states in the USA. In those states, people are buying more BEV's compared to other states. This is because there are state incentives and the car companies are actively trying to sell compliance cars in ZEV states. However, Tesla sells many cars outside ZEV states too. Therefore the data from autoalliance website shows greater sales percentages in ZEV states compared to Tesla.

For example, let's take California, the biggest ZEV state in terms of BEV sales. Here is the data I have for Tesla sales in last 12 quarters:
USA: 86,534 (9 out of 12 quarters were published by Tesla. I calculated the other 3 based on known percentages)
CA: 34,206 Published by CNCDA
CA= 34,206/86,534= 39.53%.

That means 39.53% of Tesla's USA sales were in California. If we look at the autoalliance website, California has a bigger percentage than that. Looking at your numbers, California percentage is 257,937/518,421= 49.75%. That's too high. However, if you select only BEV and look from Apr 2014 to Dec 2016, California percentage is 56%. Basically, the numbers are too unreliable.

 

[Model 3]

Hi, @Model 3,

The 22 Feb 2016 shareholder letter says "Model 3 on track for initial production in July, volume production by September". Therefore I have ignored the low volume production until Sep 2017.

No, you ignored not only the production until Sep. 2017, but all production until halfway through Sep. 2017.

Yes, I have no problems that you are playing safe by not expecting that Tesla may produce as much as they are planing/hoping for or starting exactly at the planed date, but just ignoring 2½ month? Even if they have to make a few parts manual and that is slowing down the production line vs. their current plan (to produce 1000 cars/week in July - 2000 cars/week in Aug. and 4000 cars/week in Sep.), I don't think it will take 2½ month until they manage to produce the first car.

... and no, I did not question your estimate of number of employees, and is well aware why they are first.

 

[FlatSix911]

Don't worry about the 407,000 FlatSix911 mentioned. Apparently, to hide the real meaning of reservation numbers the Tesla site used to display, they added some artificial numbers like 350,000 or 370,000.

Correct, the first US reservations started at 371,000 based on the hidden Tesla data.

@FlatSix911,
It looks like the estimator shows 37,114 as your reservation number and you are calculating 36,918 based on hidden numbers the website used to display. If that's the case, the numbers are pretty close. I have actually checked those sheets about the hidden reservation numbers and integrated some of the data. For example, the cells Data1!AP4 and Data1!AP5 here are based on the hidden reservation numbers.

Yes, you were very close in your estimate of 37,114 compared to the actual Tesla number of 36,918... well done!

 

[S3XY]

Correct, the first US reservations started at 371,000 based on the hidden Tesla data.


Yes, you were very close in your estimate of 37,114 compared to the actual Tesla number of 36,918... well done!

Wow, that puts me in the #2,000 range for the US based on my hidden number. I was thinking the starting number was 350,000. I reserved at about 10:25 AM on 3/31. Unfortunately, since I'm on the East Coast Troy's estimator says I'm #4,300 globally and I'll be getting mine around 3/5/18. That's about 3 weeks after my lease ends.

 

[FlatSix911]

Wow, that puts me in the #2,000 range for the US based on my hidden number. I was thinking the starting number was 350,000. I reserved at about 10:25 AM on 3/31. Unfortunately, since I'm on the East Coast Troy's estimator says I'm #4,300 globally and I'll be getting mine around 3/5/18. That's about 3 weeks after my lease ends.

Correct. Remember that the US reservation number assignment on 3/31/16 started on the East Coast and then moved West.
Tesla is planning to allocate the cars based on proximity to the Fremont, CA factory first in California and then move East

Reserving your Model 3

Reservations for Model 3 begin on March 31st worldwide. Reservation amounts in each currency can be found here. There are two ways to make a reservation. The first, which will allow you to get a better spot in the queue, is to visit your local Tesla store when it opens on March 31st. Find your closest Tesla store here. The second is to make a reservation online at Tesla.com when the live unveil starts at 8:30pm PT. In order to be as fair as possible, there will be a different queue for each region. And as a thank you to our current owners, existing customers will get priority in each region.

Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. When production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. As we continue to ramp production, we will begin deliveries in Europe, APAC and right-hand drive markets. It is not possible to ship to all regions simultaneously because regulators in each part of the world have slightly different production requirements. Staggering deliveries in this way also allows us to provide the best possible customer experience.

 

[NikeWings]

Thanks @Troy and @FlatSix911 maybe I jump in after all.
Feeling a little guilty but.......

 

[N5329K]

March 2018 for me.
Robin

 

[Troy]

TLDR: If you are from California, the estimate might be now up to 11 days later than before.

Hi. I have updated the calculations again. I've changed the reservation percentages for different regions to the following.

Model 3 reservations by region:
21.48% USA, California
04.35% USA, Pacific Time States excluding CA
03.16% USA, Mountain Time States
07.47% USA, Central Time States
18.30% USA, Eastern Time States
03.33% Canada
22.80% Europe excluding the UK
12.59% China or Hong Kong
02.29% Australia or New Zealand
03.10% UK
01.14% Japan

@melindav. It turns out I was able to use the autoalliance data after all. Thanks again for the link. The reason I decided to use it is because I was applying some corrections to the service center count method. When I applied the same corrections to the autoalliance data, the results were very similar.

In case you are wondering what I mean by corrections, here is what I mean: From Q2 2014 to Q4 2016, Tesla sold 32,673 cars in California and 83,308 cars in the USA. Check out column Q and O here for data sources. That means California sales were 32,673/83,308= 39.22% of USA sales. CA has 20 service centers. The USA total is 63. That's 20/63= 31.75%. You can see this in cell F3 here. I need to increase the 31.75% by %7.47 so it matches the 39.22% percentage which is the actual percentage. That means I need to decrease the service center percentages for other regions. The best way to that would be to decrease them proportionally to their existing value. Check out column G.

Autoalliance data needed a similar correction. It showed 52.24% BEV sales in CA. I needed to decrease that to 39.22% which means increasing the other regions. Again, the increase for each region was proportional to the existing percentage value. After corrections, both methods displayed similar results. Below, the first percentage is the corrected version of autoalliance data. The second percentage is from service center count method after corrections. The sheet now uses the average of these two methods.

39.22%, 39.22% USA, California
10.25%, 5.65% USA, Pacific excluding CA
5.88%, 5.65% USA, Mountain Time
11.73%, 15.55% USA, Central Time
32.93%, 33.92% USA, Eastern Time
100%,100% USA All regions

 

[caltechkid]

Late Nov 17 for me, being an existing S owner definitely helps even though I barely put down a deposit a few weeks ago.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @NikeWings. I was checking some sources and came across to the following statements from Tesla during a conference call. Click HERE to listen from 48:13 to 49:08. Tesla confirms that new S/X buyers will still get priority. Here is the transcript:

Jonathan McNeill - VP Global Sales & Service, Tesla Motors, Inc.
In terms of S and X as a bridge to Model 3, we are talking through and thinking through that. Just as Elon mentioned earlier, the quickest path to receiving a Model 3 is being a Tesla owner. We've agreed that Tesla owners are receiving priority in terms of production, and so you can run the math I just mentioned. If 93% are new to Tesla, 7% of the reservation holders are Tesla owners. And the fastest way to get a production vehicle even in 2017 is through Tesla ownership and so we're finding that there's a good conversion rate of folks that are coming in to test drive an S or an X who are Model 3 reservation-holders and are motivated to be Tesla owners now so that they can receive their Model 3 earlier.

 

[NikeWings]

Late Nov 17 for me, being an existing S owner definitely helps even though I barely put down a deposit a few weeks ago.

My delivery is also estimated at Nov 17th, and my deposit isn't even scheduled until tomorrow at 12:30 pm.
Thanks for the interesting link @Troy. Its doubtful that I'd buy a new Tesla in advance of the M3, just to get an M3 sooner as he states, but since I already am an owner, it's a tempting proposition.

 

[FlatSix911]

@melindav. It turns out I was able to use the autoalliance data after all. Thanks again for the link. The reason I decided to use it is because I was applying some corrections to the service center count method. When I applied the same corrections to the autoalliance data, the results were very similar.
In case you are wondering what I mean by corrections, here is what I mean: From Q2 2014 to Q4 2016, Tesla sold 32,673 cars in California and 83,308 cars in the USA. Check out column Q and O here for data sources. That means California sales were 32,673/83,308= 39.22% of USA sales. CA has 20 service centers. The USA total is 63. That's 20/63= 31.75%. You can see this in cell F3 here. I need to increase the 31.75% by %7.47 so it matches the 39.22% percentage which is the actual percentage. That means I need to decrease the service center percentages for other regions. The best way to that would be to decrease them proportionally to their existing value. Check out column G.

Troy, Excellent summary ... are you also using the US sales data that is published by Inside EVs Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard