Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Troy]

Just asked because as far as I am aware, it is only speculation at this point that there will even be a Model 3 75D.

I think Elon's tweet here, pretty much confirms the 75 kWh battery. Of course, it is not a 100% confirmation but it is more than speculation at this point.

Hi, @SureValla. If you give me the details you have entered, I will have a look but your estimate shouldn't have moved sooner. The production start date for dual-motor in Eastern Time states was 1 Dec 2017 before the latest update. It is now 22 Jan 2018.

 

[SureValla]

I think Elon's tweet here, pretty much confirms the 75 kWh battery. Of course, it is not a 100% confirmation but it is more than speculation at this point.

Hi, @SureValla. If you give me the details you have entered, I will have a look but your estimate shouldn't have moved sooner. The production start date for dual-motor in Eastern Time states was 1 Dec 2017 before the latest update. It is now 22 Jan 2018.

I just so happen to have screenshots of both actually

First image is from when I did the calculator on 3-31 and the second just a day or so ago

 

[Troy]

Hi, @SureValla. I like the screenshot idea. There is no dispute when you have photo evidence!

I checked the version history and it turns out the first screenshot is not the previous version but the version before that. It was taken before Elon's tweet on April 1st, 2017 here. Before Apr 1st, estimated dual motor production start dates were 27 Jan 2018 for California and 26 Feb 2018 for Eastern states. But then Elon said there is pretty good chance for AWD in 2017. So the next day, on April 2nd, I updated the calculations and changed the dates to 8 Nov 2017 for CA and 1 Dec 2017 for Eastern states. Each time the calculations are updated, I post a message in this topic. See my message here. Then Elon said, AWD in early 2018 and I changed the calculations again and we ended up with what we have now.

 

[SureValla]

Hi, @SureValla. I like the screenshot idea. There is no dispute when you have photo evidence!

I checked the version history and it turns out the first screenshot is not the previous version but the version before that. It was taken before Elon's tweet on April 1st, 2017 here. Before Apr 1st, estimated dual motor production start dates were 27 Jan 2018 for California and 26 Feb 2018 for Eastern states. But then Elon said there is pretty good chance for AWD in 2017. So the next day, on April 2nd, I updated the calculations and changed the dates to 8 Nov 2017 for CA and 1 Dec 2017 for Eastern states. Each time the calculations are updated, I post a message in this topic. See my message here. Then Elon said, AWD in early 2018 and I changed the calculations again and we ended up with what we have now.

awesome thanks for the explanation. I wish I could select Like, Helpful, informative, and love for your post but alas the forum only lets me choose one!

 

[billchase2]

It's been a while since I used the calculator. My current estimated delivery is November 12, 2018: not too bad! I'll likely go with the 55 model instead of 75, due to the price and wanting to spend more on feature like the all-glass roof rather than internal upgrades. Will make the final decision when the details are released.

Thanks for continuing to update this great tool!

 

[billchase2]

Looks like the tool will need to be updated: sources now say that the base model will be 60kWh instead of 55kWh!

 

[melindav]

Looks like the tool will need to be updated: sources now say that the base model will be 60kWh instead of 55kWh!

and that the 75(74) will be delivered first

Tesla is reportedly concentrating on the production of the premium battery at first, which is slated to be 74kWh, and likely badged as a Tesla Model 3 75

 

[ModelNforNerd]

and that the 75(74) will be delivered first

*sigh*, but still not P75D-L

 

[PRSIST]

Hi, everybody. Here are the data sources I used to calculate global reservation numbers. Most of these were tweeted by Elon.

Reservation count / Time
115,000 @ 31 Mar 2016, 20:57 PST
133,832 @ 31 Mar 2016, 22:15 PST
180,000 @ 1 Apr 2016, 09:11 PST
198,000 @ 1 Apr 2016, 10:23 PST
232,000 @ 1 Apr 2016, 19:26 PST
253,000 @ 2 Apr 2016, 07:00 PST
276,000 @ 3 Apr 2016, 00:01 PST
325,000 @ 7 Apt 2016, 07:21 PST
373,000 @ 15 May 2016, 13:00 PST

TROY...Are you the creator of the Tesla Model 3 Delivery Estimator?? If so, DAMN you have some spreadsheet talent. I've done some spreadsheets in my time, but the estimator is pure genius the way you have it written.

I checked mine yesterday and noticed that I have been pushed back one month from Jan 18, 2018 to Feb 8, 2018??

WELL DONE Troy!!

 

[Troy]

Hi, @PRSIST. I'm glad you like it. The estimator has been a fun little project for me so far.

The reason your estimated delivery is now later than it was is that, Elon recently said "AWD in early 2018" here. His previous statement here was "AWD in [late] 2017. In other words, AWD production start date has now moved from late 2017 to early 2018. On the left side panel of the estimator, you can see the latest update date. Cheers

 

[ddjohns1]

It is great to have access to the estimator. I was surprised to see the estimate for a RWD 75 was early January 2018 even though my reservation was around #250,000. I was previously guessing that my delivery would be in 2019, that it would be too late for a tax credit, that I wouldn't like the Model 3 as much as the Model S, and that a well configured Model 3 would cost about $50-55k. It sounds like my assumptions were wrong across the board (although I think I'd like the size of the Model S better, I wouldn't mind saving $20K.)

I placed an order for a new S75 (RWD) with virtually no options (leather only) and the cost minus the tax credit is about $67k. I placed the order about 3 weeks ago, and it should be delivered by end of June. I'm wondering if I should push it out so that I can get a first hand look at the Model 3 before committing. I would need to extend the lease of my Volt, or make other arrangements for 4-5 months.

Anyone else going through the same thought process?

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm wondering if I should push it out so that I can get a first hand look at the Model 3 before committing.

It sounds like you have already committed. And if you back out now you lose your deposit.

 

[pkalhan]

Man, when the estimator was first created it said I would get mine in Sept 2018, then after the last update, my estimate was June 2018, now it is back to September 2018...

Man this roller coaster ride is killing me!!!!

 

[SureValla]

It is great to have access to the estimator. I was surprised to see the estimate for a RWD 75 was early January 2018 even though my reservation was around #250,000. I was previously guessing that my delivery would be in 2019, that it would be too late for a tax credit, that I wouldn't like the Model 3 as much as the Model S, and that a well configured Model 3 would cost about $50-55k. It sounds like my assumptions were wrong across the board (although I think I'd like the size of the Model S better, I wouldn't mind saving $20K.)

I placed an order for a new S75 (RWD) with virtually no options (leather only) and the cost minus the tax credit is about $67k. I placed the order about 3 weeks ago, and it should be delivered by end of June. I'm wondering if I should push it out so that I can get a first hand look at the Model 3 before committing. I would need to extend the lease of my Volt, or make other arrangements for 4-5 months.

Anyone else going through the same thought process?

Cheaper model cars with all the options are always better than expensive model cars with no options. Go for the fully loaded 3

 

[Justmurr]

Cheaper model cars with all the options are always better than expensive model cars with no options. Go for the fully loaded 3

As someone who is struggling with the wait...I desperately want to believe in this same viewpoint but is Tesla different than the traditional thinking here ....just like they are countless other ways?

I'm torturing myself lately by shopping 2013 Ss.
I need to stop this practice right? Crazy-talk to think of going wth a 3-4yr old S w/ a few miles now vs. waiting for what will likely be a RWD Model 3 75

 

[shrspeedblade]

As someone who is struggling with the wait...I desperately want to believe in this same viewpoint but is Tesla different than the traditional thinking here ....just like they are countless other ways?

I'm torturing myself lately by shopping 2013 Ss.
I need to stop this practice right? Crazy-talk to think of going wth a 3-4yr old S w/ a few miles now vs. waiting for what will likely be a RWD Model 3 75

I've just kept telling myself there is no way you should do anything until you know the final specs/price of the Model 3, at least at launch. We'll (hopefully) know so much more in two months than we know now.

 

[SureValla]

I've just kept telling myself there is no way you should do anything until you know the final specs/price of the Model 3, at least at launch. We'll (hopefully) know so much more in two months than we know now.

I'm torturing myself lately by shopping 2013 Ss.
I need to stop this practice right? Crazy-talk to think of going wth a 3-4yr old S w/ a few miles now vs. waiting for what will likely be a RWD Model 3 75

Agreed right now is probably the worst time in the history of Tesla to buy an S. Main reasons are you don't know how close a 3 will be in quality or enjoyment and I bet you anything the S will get a refresh soon to have the 2170 batteries for the same price if not more things to further differentiate it from the 3. This will drive down the price of that 2013 S even further.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Agreed right now is probably the worst time in the history of Tesla to buy an S. Main reasons are you don't know how close a 3 will be in quality or enjoyment and I bet you anything the S will get a refresh soon to have the 2170 batteries for the same price if not more things to further differentiate it from the 3. This will drive down the price of that 2013 S even further.

Poor Elon. He backed himself into a corner here. He is trying SOOO hard to "neg" the Model 3, in hopes of keeping S sales up until the end of the month.

But now it's crunch time. We're in the last 30 days of BM3....Before Model 3. They will do anything they can to get you into an S this month.

Funny side note about that: (you'll get this, since you live in CT).

I got an email last week inviting me to come check out the Mashpee, MA Tesla Store over the holiday weekend. I just laughed and closed out of the email. Anyone in the Northeast knows: you don't just go to the Cape on a summer weekend. They should look at the historical traffic data on all of the AP-enabled cars and realize that email was kinda tone deaf. lol

 

[ummgood]

Agreed right now is probably the worst time in the history of Tesla to buy an S. Main reasons are you don't know how close a 3 will be in quality or enjoyment and I bet you anything the S will get a refresh soon to have the 2170 batteries for the same price if not more things to further differentiate it from the 3. This will drive down the price of that 2013 S even further.

They should have released an updated S with the 2170 cells 3 months ago to drive demand for the S before the 3 is released.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

They should have released an updated S with the 2170 cells 3 months ago to drive demand for the S before the 3 is released.

The 18650 contract with Panasonic doesn't run out until the end of the year, I believe.