Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[JSkrehot]

As someone who lives in the North Bay I've thought about doing this, but it's over 3 hours round trip so I'm hesitant unless I'm reasonably assured of seeing one. Did you go to the back side of the factory to watch from the other side of the railroad tracks I assume? How many did you see? Do tell! Just one, the white one from most of the videos people have posted. When I got there there was an S and a X going around at the same time. They then both went away and nobody was out there. I was thinking about leaving and then the 3 came out. The car had 4 people in it, it did a few laps as I watched from my truck. I then got out and walked closer to the fence (yes from the backside with all of the trains) and the driver twice on two separate laps pulled up in front of me and came to a complete stop and allowed me to take pics for say 20 seconds before punching it and doing another lap. I was very pleased.

 

[JSkrehot]

As someone who lives in the North Bay I've thought about doing this, but it's over 3 hours round trip so I'm hesitant unless I'm reasonably assured of seeing one. Did you go to the back side of the factory to watch from the other side of the railroad tracks I assume? How many did you see? Do tell!

ust one, the white one from most of the videos people have posted. When I got there there was an S and a X going around at the same time. They then both went away and nobody was out there. I was thinking about leaving and then the 3 came out. The car had 4 people in it, it did a few laps as I watched from my truck. I then got out and walked closer to the fence (yes from the backside with all of the trains) and the driver twice on two separate laps pulled up in front of me and came to a complete stop and allowed me to take pics for say 20 seconds before punching it and doing another lap. I was very pleased.

 

[JSkrehot]

As someone who lives in the North Bay I've thought about doing this, but it's over 3 hours round trip so I'm hesitant unless I'm reasonably assured of seeing one. Did you go to the back side of the factory to watch from the other side of the railroad tracks I assume? How many did you see? Do tell!

I probably would have done it if I had a 1.5 hour drive each way as you did. I was off on a Thursday though and went over after dropping my kids off at school. I got there around 9 am.

 

[JSkrehot]

Hi, @JSkrehot. There is no error. A small group of RWD buyers who were between 52% and 60% on the reservation queue got pushed from December 2017 to June 2018 after this latest update. The reason is that after AWD production starts, I don't expect any RWD production for at least 5 months because that would be the fair thing to do. On 7 January 2018, the situation will look like this:

• No P cars delivered in California.
• No D cars delivered in California.
• RWD cars delivered to all buyers in California who are in the first 52% of the reservation queue.

It is only fair that they should stop RWD production completely until AWD production reaches the same levels. I expect something similar to happen when Performance production starts. Around 24 March 2018, the situation will look like this:

• No P cars delivered in California.
• D cars delivered to all buyers in California who are in the first 33% of the reservation queue.
• RWD cars delivered to all buyers in California who are in the first 52% of the reservation queue.

Again I assumed Tesla would do the right thing and stop all RWD and D production until P production catches up to D production levels.

As for delays between regions, I used these data points when deciding on those:

• Model X data
• EV registration numbers in each region
• Tesla's service center numbers in each region
• Elon's tweets about EU and left-hand drive production start dates.

Hopefully, we'll all be figuring out exact dates from Tesla by the end of July when they open the configurator.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Hey @Troy ,

Is there anything definitive enough in this ( July Surprise ) to change your Estimator yet?

 

[dsvick]

However, seeing your comments of stopping RWD production "because that would be the fair thing to do," I know that this estimator is HUGELY speculative. Tesla cares none about fair. Tesla took money for 1st gen looking Model S with public not knowing about refreshed face that would be avail the following week. Much of the same with 90 kWh battery buyers who then had the 100 kWh battery available after they could not change their order.

Changing specs and options has to happen sometime so whether they did it one week or the next they would have upset people because there would have always been someone on the other side of the cut off date.

 

[JSkrehot]

Changing specs and options has to happen sometime so whether they did it one week or the next they would have upset people because there would have always been someone on the other side of the cut off date.

They are going to "ramp up," not just stop and make AWD. I'm not getting a P version, however, when they make it available, they aren't going to stop RWD or AWD and focus solely on P, that is just stupid.

 

[boiler81]

They are going to "ramp up," not just stop and make AWD. I'm not getting a P version, however, when they make it available, they aren't going to stop RWD or AWD and focus solely on P, that is just stupid.

Actually based on their strategy to minimize production disruption by focusing on a single model derivative, it very possible they will stop RWD production for AWD, for a period of time. I'm sure after the production lines have gained experience, the may build all models at the same time, but not at the bottom of the learning curve. Also, remember the AWD is the more popular version than RWD.

 

[JSkrehot]

Actually based on their strategy to minimize production disruption by focusing on a single model derivative, it very possible they will stop RWD production for AWD, for a period of time. I'm sure after the production lines have gained experience, the may build all models at the same time, but not at the bottom of the learning curve. Also, remember the AWD is the more popular version than RWD.

There is no learning curve, it's a simpler Model S, they've been making them for some 5 years.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @ModelNforNerd. I'm following Reddit and saw that shortly after it was posted. The comments about the configurator limits and interior color don't affect calculations but this part is interesting:

Trev's source: "the production line is just about ready and will start production ASAP so that several THOUSAND Model 3s are produced and stockpiled for deliveries at the end of July." Source

I think the reason they are stockpiling these cars is that they don't want the missing 1% supplier parts to stop production completely. Elon talked about this in the past. He said this:

Elon: It only has to be 1% and then we either have to make those parts manually at great cost or slow down the production rate. And it’s at great cost. We make something manually, as opposed through mass production, it can be 10, 20, 30 times more expensive. Source

Making the cars without the missing parts and stacking them up in the yard is something Elon talked about in the past. Watch it here. However, this strategy is only possible if the missing parts are less critical. If the missing parts are things that would require disassembling a large part of the car, then they will slow down the production line to the same speed they can make the missing parts manually. If the parts can be easily retrofitted, then production will continue at full speed and cars will be stockpiled somewhere. I think Tesla is preparing for all possible scenarios.

Currently, the estimator shows 45,468 units in 2017. I will do a little more research and see if I should increase that slightly.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

There is no learning curve, it's a simpler Model S, they've been making them for some 5 years.

There IS a learning curve. The line and tooling are brand new, and they've never dealt with this volume before.

It's one thing to say "do this 80,000 times/year " compared to "do this 500,000 times/year".

Because now you're dealing with where to put these vehicles, how to ship them, etc etc etc. Problems multiply exponentially with the increase in volume.

 

[JSkrehot]

There IS a learning curve. The line and tooling are brand new, and they've never dealt with this volume before.

It's one thing to say "do this 80,000 times/year " compared to "do this 500,000 times/year".

Because now you're dealing with where to put these vehicles, how to ship them, etc etc etc. Problems multiply exponentially with the increase in volume.

Don't need to worry about shipping them if they do all of California first. We'd all just pick them up at the factory!!!

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Don't need to worry about shipping them if they do all of California first. We'd all just pick them up at the factory!!!

Well, the first batch to leave California will be testing Tesla's supply chain management. Trains, trucks, warehousing, final delivery to customer.

All of it.

As of next month (maybe Q4 when they start "out of CA" deliveries....) Tesla is running with the big boys now.

 

[JSkrehot]

Hi. I have just finished watching the 2017 shareholder meeting live here. Elon said AWD at the end of this year or early next year. We use early next year. So, no changes needed there. He also said somebody ordering today would get their car at the end of next year. I immediately went to the Estimator to check what it shows and it showed 29 Dec 2018. So, no changes needed there either.

Elon said the configurator will have color and wheel selection and that's it. I'm not sure what that means for the battery selection. Are they going to have only the Model 3 75 initially or is it going to be only Model 3 55 for a while? It would make more sense to start with the 75 because then people who were planning to buy the 55, might switch to the 75 to get their car sooner. However, if Gigafactory production ramp up is not happening fast enough, then it would make sense to start with the 55. Potentially, this could also allow the S and X to switch to 2170 cells sooner rather than later. We have to wait for more information on this.

Troy, this question is for you, however, I welcome any comments. When it comes to the configuator going online, do you think every option the Model 3 could possibly have will be available to choose and it will give you a build date and such or do you think it will be limited? By limited, I mean maybe you can see that it will be an option at some point but you are not able to select it? Also, the configurator is supposed to go online in July. Lets say they open it up to all 400,000 people and the car I configures says I will get it June 1 (because I knew nothing about the Model 3 until April 2, sadly), what happens if I configure my car the first day and say 2 months before they start to build it, they come out with some other options? Am I able to change my configuration without penalty? I ask since I could have like a 11 month wait after configuring. Thanks for any insight.

 

[Troy]

@JSkrehot, when I listen to Elon's exact words here, it sounds like it won't be possible to submit your final configuration if you select one of the trim levels that is not available at launch. Of course, it is entirely possible that the configurator will allow you to save your AWD or P preference but it won't be binding and you will be asked to come back and configure at a later time. To let people configure their D or P versions, they would have to display options that are not available at launch but will be available in January or April 2018. I don't think they would do that.

 

[dsvick]

Changing specs and options has to happen sometime so whether they did it one week or the next they would have upset people because there would have always been someone on the other side of the cut off date.

They are going to "ramp up," not just stop and make AWD. I'm not getting a P version, however, when they make it available, they aren't going to stop RWD or AWD and focus solely on P, that is just stupid.

My comment was directed at your "Tesla cares none about fair" statement when you mentioned changing the face and the battery specs. I wasn't talking about them stopping RWD for AWD. Although it is possible that that is what they'll do, I think that once they begin AWD production they'll continue with RWD as well.

 

[boiler81]

Although it is possible that that is what they'll do, I think that once they begin AWD production they'll continue with RWD as well.

A continuous flow production line only moves as fast as the slowest "cycle time" (unless there are buffers), so introducing the AWD with RWD production continuing on the same line could slow all production to the slowest cycle. I would guess that they may stop RWD for a period of time until AWD ramps up to allow a near parity with RWD build times. I believe Troy's estimator is based on this switch to AWD production only for a period.

 

[JSkrehot]

A continuous flow production line only moves as fast as the slowest "cycle time" (unless there are buffers), so introducing the AWD with RWD production continuing on the same line could slow all production to the slowest cycle. I would guess that they may stop RWD for a period of time until AWD ramps up to allow a near parity with RWD build times. I believe Troy's estimator is based on this switch to AWD production only for a period.

Is there only a single production line or multiple? I see that it is only 1 now.

 

[Booga]

A continuous flow production line only moves as fast as the slowest "cycle time" (unless there are buffers), so introducing the AWD with RWD production continuing on the same line could slow all production to the slowest cycle. I would guess that they may stop RWD for a period of time until AWD ramps up to allow a near parity with RWD build times. I believe Troy's estimator is based on this switch to AWD production only for a period.

Unless they do a specific batch just for AWD. If so, then it doesn't slow down production rates of the RWD models.

 

[EValuatED]

Unless they do a specific batch just for AWD. If so, then it doesn't slow down production rates of the RWD models.

And since we're all musing & speculating... Tesla has said things to the effect of just wanting to make a minimal variable set of initial vehicles to sell and iron out any initial/unexpected quality issues, close to the factory.

AWD is another variable. But, perhaps reasonable to see it as an add-in on the car & line, given the modular approach (of the car and the line). So perhaps the addition of AWD is not a "line stopper."