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Model 3 delivery estimator

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Wiki, Sep 25, 2016.

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  1. insaneoctane

    insaneoctane Active Member

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    Do they really need 5,000 more reservations,or do they just need to be willing to sit on one weeks worth of forecasted Q2 production at the very end of Q2?
     
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  2. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    I agree there is no reasonable explanation for bringing AWD to Canada sooner than the US other than Tesla is trying to make a play. My problem here is that the only way to make it work is a large miss on the S/X or a failed ramp on the 3. If both go more or less to schedule then surely you must agree it's mission impossible based on the data? But then there is the shareholder letter and conference call in which Tesla confirmed that both S/X orders and Model 3 targets of 2.5k (Q1) + 5k (Q2) are on track. I just can't square the two. Or maybe Tesla is really willing to stockpile a lot more cars than imaginable? Like 10k model 3 on lots across America? That'd be about 500M in frozen capital. Need to see how much uncommitted lending capacity there is on the warehouse line in the annual report next week.
     
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  3. smak

    smak Member

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    Actually there is a reasonable explanation, in that the vast majority of Canadians want AWD. So in the scenario that they want to ship a certain amount of cars to Canada in order to delay the 200k, it would be silly to offer RWD cars, and have 75% of the Canadians they offer them to defer.

    There have been many numbers of guesses as to how many Canadians reserved, but it's entirely possible that offering RWD to every Canadian reservation wouldn't even get to the number of cars Tesla would need.
     
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  4. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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  5. DavidP

    DavidP Member

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    #1585 DavidP, Feb 9, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
    Just to inform you that our Canadian estimate shows Mid-2018 for AWD with Short range or Long range version.
     
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  6. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    I do wonder if that's just artifact of how they chose to format it, and that the SRD vs LRD availability will be staggered. If they are trying to bump margin up, given AWD is supposed to be <$5000 option, does a $39,000 SRD have more gross profit margin than a $44,000 LR?

    Interesting. Your update pushed my LR date waaay back, much farther than Tesla's new estimate.
     
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  7. pxthree

    pxthree Member

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    Hey Troy, to help you with your updates.

    Current Model S owner, M3 Reservation Jan. 15, 2018 in VA.

    First Prod: Late 2018
    Stand. Batt: Early 2019
    DMAWD: Late 2018

    Your current, updated, sheet shows as delivery for the Long Range as being in March 2018
     
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  8. S3XY

    S3XY Active Member

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    Yes, you're right. AWD will go to Canada first.
     
  9. T34ME

    T34ME Active Member

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    Although my Tesla revised window shows Apr-Jun, your delivery estimator shows mid-August. For the time being, your delivery estimator is the one I have most faith in. I am copacetic with that delivery date. Not a big deal for me to wait an additional six months for an opportunity to drive the FUTURE.
     
  10. suwaneedad

    suwaneedad Member

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    @Troy, what logic changes did you make that would have pushed my global production sequence number from 56k in prior version, to 136k? (East coast non-owner, 4/1/16 11aPT, LR). I'm asking a generic question here, just providing my specifics as an example of the head-scratcher.
     
  11. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    I'm in pretty much the same spot. I haven't tried to follow through all the spreadsheet's logic yet, but I suspect it is largely driven by adding in the new mid-2018 Canadian shipments.

    Given that the new Nov 9 (IIRC) date Troy's giving me so far out from Tesla's brand new May-Jul, he might be making some assumptions that differ from Tesla's plans. Which is going to end up the more accurate? *shrug* I'm going the the strategy of resigning myself to sometime Q4, seems best path for one's own sanity. ;)

    P.S. The good news is that it appears that current owners entering the queue now aren't going to leapfrog us longtime non-owner registrants.
     
  12. seattlite2004

    seattlite2004 Member

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    So US folks that want AWD will be screwed out of the full tax credit......this sucks.
     
  13. TJtv

    TJtv Member

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    100k for the full YEAR does not equate to 25k per quarter. They said in the letter that: "As we indicated heading into Q4, production of Model S and Model X during the quarter was limited to 22,137 vehicles due to reallocation of some of the manufacturing resources to Model 3 production"

    It would be foolish to think that the production capacity for model s/x would immediately go back above that 22k number that they produced in Q4.
     
  14. TJtv

    TJtv Member

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    Alternatively, maybe since the order is so recent it just hasn't had time for the system to come along and bump up its priority.
     
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  15. ariaga

    ariaga Member

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    On the contrary, Tesla prioritizing Canada in Q2 could help them hold off on hitting 200k U.S. deliveries by one quarter, which would allow them to maximize the number of U.S. recipients of the full tax credit.

    Any American holding out for AWD should be praying that Tesla plays games to make the full credit last through December 31 2018. Prioritizing Canada while they ramp up production could play a big role in that.

    If I have to choose between a) Getting my Model 3 three months later with $7500 credit, or b) Getting my Model 3 three months sooner with $3750 credit, choice a) is a no-brainer.
     
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  16. Sonny Daze

    Sonny Daze Member

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    Unless this strategy can push the full tax credit back to 31 Dec. That's what Troy is trying to determine.
     
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  17. lupend88

    lupend88 Member

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    Non owner / Day 1 at 12:46pm / Oregon / First Production

    For some reason it says I will get my car in late June, but if I adjust the time by just 1 hr sooner (11:46am), it shows early April.

    How does one hr difference in reservation time convert to a near 3 months difference in delivery?
     
  18. ariaga

    ariaga Member

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    #1598 ariaga, Feb 9, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
    3 months does seem excessive, but I would expect one hour (during the morning) to make a pretty significant difference for deliveries that occur before they've reached full production rates. During the first morning hours, they were getting anywhere between ~50 and ~150 U.S. reservations per minute once you normalize everyone within their respective time zone. So one hour could mean a difference of 3,000 - 9,000 spots in line. And if you assume an average production rate of 2,000 / week (which they have not come close to reaching yet) and 70% conversion rate of invitees accepting a First Production vehicle, that would equate to a range of 1 - 3 weeks difference in delivery times.

    There's a lot of room for error though.

    EDIT: Fixed estimates on number of reservations per minute
     
  19. suwaneedad

    suwaneedad Member

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    80,000 Canadians want a Model 3? Isn't that pretty much the entire adult population of Canada? (J/K...it's 1% of Canadian households. Feels really high to me.)
     
  20. ummgood

    ummgood Member

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    Maybe @Troy could look at this? I tried it out and am getting the same as you did. I also tried the same thing by switching my reservation up by one hour and only saw I would get the car 4 days sooner.
     
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