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Hi, everybody. Here are the reasons why you see much later times than before:
To understand the reasons better, open the Data tab here and scroll down while watching columns E to L. If your car enters production before 28 March 2018 when they start production for Canada, then you won't see too much delay.
- Tesla estimates they will hit 2,500/week by the end of Q1 and 5,000/week by the end of Q2. I'm using 1,345 and 3,500 based on the NHTSA VIN chart which is the more optimistic VIN chart between the two VIN charts. Check out the charts here. In my version, Q1 production is 14,800 units.
- For the Canada idea to work, I allocated all production from 28 March 2018 to 10 June 2018 to Canada.
- I assumed AWD production will continue for the US immediately after they are done with Canada in Mid-June 2018. AWD is close to half of production.
- Because AWD production starts in June in my version, I expect more interest in AWD. Therefore I have increased the percentage of AWD orders. Many people decided to switch to RWD because of tax credits but they don't need to switch anymore.
To understand the reasons better, open the Data tab here and scroll down while watching columns E to L. If your car enters production before 28 March 2018 when they start production for Canada, then you won't see too much delay.
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This is not an error. In my version, US Model 3 production completely stops from 28 March 2018 to 10 June 2018 because of Canada production.
In my version, I have used 24,299 orders from Canada which is 4.8% of 503,000 active global reservations. However, this still occupies 100% of Model 3 production from 28 March 2018 to 10 June 2018 because of the slow production rate in Q1.
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ℬête Noire
Active Member
Thank you, about what I suspected.
The upshot of that is that even though your estimate of my delivery slipped about a quarter past where I had previously expected it to fall in July(after adjusting for using VIN based estimate vs Tesla supplied projections) all the way to Oct, IF your estimate is correct because of those assumptions, I'll still be about the same place in regards to the tax credit as it'll shift a Q further into the future, too.
P.S. The thing about the Tesla projections is they are probably not going to be smooth curve between the points they give, even if they hit them. Especially if they hit them. For example the doubling of production with that single full-auto line shipping in from Germany.
The upshot of that is that even though your estimate of my delivery slipped about a quarter past where I had previously expected it to fall in July(after adjusting for using VIN based estimate vs Tesla supplied projections) all the way to Oct, IF your estimate is correct because of those assumptions, I'll still be about the same place in regards to the tax credit as it'll shift a Q further into the future, too.
P.S. The thing about the Tesla projections is they are probably not going to be smooth curve between the points they give, even if they hit them. Especially if they hit them. For example the doubling of production with that single full-auto line shipping in from Germany.
All selections seem to put Canada in Nov for delivery. Is this intended? Assumed the allocation of production to Canada would move some configs like AWD for Canada earlier.
For me, quite a discrepancy between Tesla estimate and Troy's estimate (Apr 1, 2016 1900 pst online non-owner east coast):
Was first production Mar - May 18 (Troy had me at mid June)
Now first production Jun - Aug 18 (Troy has me at Dec 24th)
I'm guessing the wide discrepancy is because Telsa is not projecting out estimates based on a production stop for Canada push. If it turns out there actually is a Canada push, I'm guessing I'll be close to Troy's projection all things being equal. Does not bode well for me for the full Tax credit.
You would actually get $7,500 for deliveries until 31 Dec 2018 if the Canada idea works. The spreadsheet estimator shows both scenarios in rows 27, 28.
By the way, I recommend checking out delivery estimates for the AWD version as well. When AWD starts production, there is going to be huge interest. This car is expected to have 23 miles more range than the S100D at 75 mph. Also, it will have better than 4.7s 0-60 because the RWD version has 4.7s.
suwaneedad
Member
I guess I'm not seeing this Canada Play as clearly as many others are. So you've seen enough evidence that the production will be diverted from US buyers to CN buyers in order to flip the 200000th US delivery to at least 7/1/18? This surprises me, but naturally I have a tendency to trust your instincts on these things so I'm just sitting here surprised that you've gone All In on the CN Play in the delivery estimator tool.
I can understand that Tesla would want to do so on the down low so as not to raise the ire of Washington; it just seems unlikely that they'll pull it off given the lack of an AWD Model 3 at present (let alone thousands to satiate CN demand), and so on. @Troy, I don't suppose there's a way for you to build a toggle switch of sorts into your estimator, so the user could determine whether they're gambling on the CN play happening, or the CN play not happening. Anyway, what I'm most interested to hear from you is how you got confident that channeling future deliveries to CN (or, outside the US...particularly when considering S/X volume) is the path being taken by Tesla.
An additional reason that I don't believe the CN play, is that while it would lend credence to the optimistic updated delivery estimates for CN reservation holders coming from Tesla, it would simultaneously mean the updated delivery estimates for US reservation holders were materially wrong at the time of release (for example, mine having been pushed out the requisite three months, to Jun-Aug, when Nov-Jan would have been the more appropriate update from Tesla in the "CN First" scenario).
Thanks as always. This stuff fascinates and impresses me from my perspective of a Tesla shareholder. And drives me nuts from the perspective of a non-owner reservation holder who simply wants his First Production delivered asap. I need a lobotomy.
I firmly agree with Troy on Tesla is going to push delivery to Canada to make $7500 last until Dec 31st. It makes sense due to Canadian RSVP got bumped from late 2018 to Mid 2018 on First Production and AWD. If the ramp is as successful as Tesla hope for, expect to see huge in transit in Q2 as they hold the delivery until July 1st.
Troy,
Yeah I did see rows 27, 28. My pessimism stems from the fact that Tesla would have to execute the Canada scenario perfectly and ramp precisely according to your data for me to hit the full refund. Time will tell! AWD puts me into January so full refund would be out.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Yup, with these shifts I'm now more curious than ever what they'll announce on pricing and package for the AWD.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Remember that they have control of the timing of handing over the vehicles, because it is Tesla employees right up to the physical turnover to the customer.
suwaneedad
Member
It's about time for us to start wondering whether Tesla can count to 200,000 accurately.
That, in itself, will be an interesting subplot, should they try to stick the landing and not accidentally deliver the 200,000th car on June 30 somewhere in the US.
That, in itself, will be an interesting subplot, should they try to stick the landing and not accidentally deliver the 200,000th car on June 30 somewhere in the US.
Exactly. They just updated the projections! To think that any speculation is more accurate than Tesla's estimator means you have to believe Tesla is willfully and purposefully misleading hundreds of thousand reservation holders. I see no motivation for them to do that, especially if their supposed actions are in the reservation holder's interest.
Tesla should do 199500 instead of 199999, don't want a single car to ruin it
HOPE. That's what you need if you want a Model 3 with $7.5k tax credit.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
A key thing to keep in mind is that it wouldn't be stopping production, it's diverting delivery elsewhere (Canada for the M3, worldwide for the S & X) and towards the end potentially delaying delivery by an extra week or two.
I'm still not convinced this is happening, at least not exactly as described, but I do find it at least plausible.
I love this. People are taking the extremely thin evidence of Mid-2018 estimates for Canadian AWD (which could easily mean July/August if it means anything at all) to mean that Tesla will deliver all Q2 production to Canada, and conveniently ignoring that there are an enormous amount of US first production orders that have a March-May estimate, as well as a lot that have April-June, and Canadian first production orders have only the same vague Mid-2018 as Canadian AWD. If you are going to use Tesla's delivery estimates as evidence for something, you can't pick and choose which delivery estimates to trust and which ones to ignore. And if you insist on doing that, it seems to me the more specific ones have more weight than the vaguer ones.
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