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Model 3 delivery estimator

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Wiki, Sep 25, 2016.

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  1. smak

    smak Member

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    This is never never ever happening.
     
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  2. vinnie97

    vinnie97 #WalkAway

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    As a mountain time first day nonowner, end of March is now estimated for delivery of RWD so about a month delay from prior and August 14 for AWD. I love the idea of more range, but the price is already stratospheric...
    So you anticipate the rated range to be 358 miles for AWD? Is this based on mathematical calculations or some released EPA data?
     
  3. WileyTheMan

    WileyTheMan Peanut Gallery Member

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    Tesla has to figure out the best way to maximize deliveries. That's their primary goal. If starting deliveries earlier the Canada is a way to do it, they will, but I don't think doing that is a better option than getting more cars out to California residents and those in geographically close states.

    Honestly I hope I'm wrong.
     
  4. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    I'm pretty sure they are moving Canadian LR and AWD deliveries ahead of US SR deliveries. That seems clear and in keeping with their general goals. There are both US and Canadian AWD deliveries with a Mid-2018 estimate, but generally only existing owners in the US have a mid-2018 estimate for AWD, whereas it seems like many (most?) Canadian orders do. That's the only part that's not clear. First production Canadian orders are still generally behind first production US orders.
     
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  5. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Supporting Member

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    This Canada theory seems like a non-starter to me. Tesla is very bad at giving estimates, yes. But I don't believe they actively lie about them. In order to believe that they're going to flat-out stop US deliveries of the 3 for months starting next month seems to me like it strongly implies that the updated estimates some folks just received are not possible likely at all, doesn't it? Then there's also the balancing act between the goodwill they'd receive in Canada / from some US folks with the fury they'd get from US folks that would otherwise have taken delivery during those months and now will not.

    I like the idea of pushing out the credit, but this seems like a lot of conjecture on the basis of very little concrete evidence. I guess we'll see.
     
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  6. smak

    smak Member

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    How can you have MAR-MAY, APR-JUN windows for US people if they aren't delivering cars in the US in May?

    Tesla's own estimates contradict this 10 week Canada stop. You can't just take one estimate and ignore all others.
     
  7. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    Not at 75mph conditions he stipulated. ;) Remember, generally the faster you are traveling the more it favours the lower air drag M3.

    He's got a chart compiled from various sources including extrapolations of the M3 D models based on the mileage increases that Model S models saw shifting to D. Here's an old version I found but I'm pretty sure he's got a newer one based on more current data.
     
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  8. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    If you look at the screenshot here, it shows Mid-2018 for AWD for a Canadian reservation holder who reserved on 30 April 2017. However, it shows Late-2018 for California owners who waited in line. I can't think of any different explanation other than Tesla will try to postpone the 200K date. For a while, I thought this could be a typo but Electrek published this article and Tesla didn't make any corrections.

    I would add that option if it was easy to do.
     
  9. vinnie97

    vinnie97 #WalkAway

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    Fair point, Noire, I was using the officially rated range, which is based on a combination of driving conditions. The range increase would naturally vary depending on driving conditions (less drag resulting in a smaller delta).
     
  10. kengchang

    kengchang Member

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    They won't be stopping delivery in the the US but they will allocate majority of Model 3 to Canada as 200K appraoches in the Q2
     
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  11. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    The lower granularity of the modeling means more wonkiness near edge conditions but it's a lot harder to code that level of complexity for granularity into the spreadsheet.
     
  12. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    I don't see any law that says they can't ship some AWD deliveries to Canada before the US. They want to start shipping to Canada in the middle of the year to continue to ship only first production and AWD orders through the end of the year with no SR orders. Since most Canadian orders are AWD the delivery centers there will be under utilized unless they prioritize more AWD deliveries to Canada. There. Highly speculative, but far far more likely than Tesla stopping all deliveries in the US during a period when they've just said they are delivering a ton of cars.
     
  13. favo

    favo P3D+ owner

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    The bottom line is even Tesla probably doesn't yet know for sure if something like sending a bunch of cars to Canada can maximize the tax credit for US buyers, without an undue pause to US deliveries. It will probably depend a lot on how the ramp is going.

    If they have great confidence in the new battery production line coming in next month from Tesla Grohmann Automation in Germany, it might make sense. Until then, not much improvement in ramp up, but after, quite a big jump. If they send several slower weeks' production off to Canada (and maybe a few faster weeks), then go back to the US at the faster rate, everybody wins. I'm assuming there might be a bit of a delay getting the line installed, plus finishing and incorporating AWD tooling/process.
     
  14. ACPark

    ACPark Member

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    Seems on Android the sheet is different. On PC everything works as you described. On android the drop downs are different for some reason on my phone. Eg. Step 6 Says "Model 3 LRD or SRD still. vs. on PC entries are different, Model 3 LRD and Model 3 LR
     
  15. suwaneedad

    suwaneedad Member

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    OK @Troy, I'm going to end up "half agreeing" with you here, now having read Fred's article.
    I suspect pointing the delivery firehose in the direction of Canada has everything to do with the earnings release comment about selling the highest margin Model 3s first. That would mean that as soon as AWD exists, and can be feathered into the existing ramping production process without submarine-ing said ramping production process, then indeed AWDs will become the priority production model, to the US, to CN...wherever there are buyers for it because it is presumably a higher gross margin (per vehicle) vehicle than a mere First Production 3LR RWD.

    That said, I don't believe the above scenario means that CN deliveries of AWDs and RWDs will suddenly take precedence over US deliveries of same, primarily for the reason that this course would render the delivery estimate updates published to reservation holders earlier this week as materially wrong in many cases, when issued.

    In short, I am betting that pulling forward CN First Prod and RWD estimates to mid-2018 is more about's Tesla's announcement to bias toward highest-margin vehicles first (AWD), and its history of introducing to CN as its second market behind the US (which would explain moving up to 'mid-2018' on the CN First Prod, yet without putting a specific three month range on it as US reservations have). I don't see a plan to divert in order to kick the 200,000th US delivery to July 1, in other words.

    But hey, my opinion won't even buy you a cup of coffee. So we'll just have to sit tight. My bet would be we will see non-owner invitations in the US begin to go out within the next week as you had been projecting recently, as well as owner invites in CN. Those would give Tesla a place to continue to deliver 1000 RWD units/wk while we all wait for AWD to be something other than a prototype, as well as beginning to knock out some of the (small) RWD demand coming from CN. It'll also help firm up the deferral/order book for AWDs as those begin to come off the production line at who-knows-when point in time.

    "Mid-2018" in Tesla-speak can mean September 30, with a straight face no less! My guess is that as long as Tesla is delivering AWDs in quantity to CN and the northern US by Fall (first snowfall, and partial tax credit), those buyers will be generally quite content.
     
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  16. UZJedi

    UZJedi Member

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    This is my thinking as well and why I have a hard time really buying this Canada first theory. Perhaps it could be a contingency plan if production doesn't ramp enough by a particular date. A tactic to make the most of further production delays. But as a definitive strategy this early in the game I just don't believe it. I suspect there are still too many unknowns for Tesla at this point in the ramp to aim so precisely at a moving target.

    I may have missed it, but have we confirmed that Canadian non-owners are seeing mid-2018 estimates? Could it be that they just want to satisfy Canadian owners?
     
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  17. smak

    smak Member

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    As far as I know Tesla has only shown early, mid, and late as ranges of deliveries. That to me means 3 months, 6 months, and 3 months.

    I would take almost all the 3 month windows over "mid 2018"
     
  18. suwaneedad

    suwaneedad Member

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    I'm not following you; I've had a three month range on my First Production window from Tesla for months. Feb-Mar, then Mar-May, now Jun-Aug.
     
  19. SMAlset

    SMAlset Active Member

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    I assume it might be easier to do Canadian deliveries when the weather is more favorable as well on top of getting sales logged while still stretching out the US 200K limit timeframe. If they can time it right (with the battery automation worked out and the factory meeting production goals), they can get more owners the Federal credit depending on when exactly that 200K is reached.
     
  20. ACPark

    ACPark Member

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    Canadian non-owner, day one line waiter. I have Mid 2018 for Current production and AWD.
     
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