Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[kbM3]

I previously reasoned that Canada wouldn't have enough takers (of LR+RWD+PUP) in order for it to make a difference in keeping Tesla below 200k U.S. deliveries for Q2. My current best estimate for Tesla at their current pace and predicted ramp-up is ~230k total U.S deliveries at end of Q2. Of those, ~36k would be Model 3 deliveries. 30k seems like way too many vehicles to "play games" with.

But significantly pushing up AWD changes that to enter the realm of possibility.

I have some spreadsheets where I looked at various scenarios working with these assumptions:

Estimated number of Canadian reservation holders: 42,000 - 50,000
% who want standard range: 42%
% who want long range: 58%
% who want AWD: 80%
% who want RWD: 20%
% who want PUP: 45%
% who want future performance edition: 13%

Using these numbers, you only get ~2k who really want the First Production vehicles. Then I assigned percentages on what % I thought would be willing to compromise on these to take earlier delivery (e.g., 20% - 35% of those who want standard range would take long range if they had to, maybe 20% for RWD vs AWD). That could potentially bump the number up to ~5k - 8k.

But if Tesla did the following, they can greatly increase those numbers to get into the neighborhood of 30k:

* Cut off U.S. Model 3 deliveries (probably to 5% - 10% of normal levels), redirecting to Canada
* Introduce and deliver AWD in Q2 in significant volume (adds 8k - 16k more Canadian customers)
* Offer non-PUP variants (adds probably another 3k - 5k Canadian takers)

The above combined with minor Model S/X redirections overseas and elevated levels of inventory stockpiling could keep them barely under 200k for end of Q2.

The motivation to do this is clear: Make sure you don't hit 200k until you've reached closer to 5k / week for Model 3 production to maximize the number of U.S. customers qualifying for the full tax credit. Customers qualifying for the full tax credit are more likely to pay for add-ons / options they wouldn't otherwise select without help from the tax credit. Should help margins signficantly.

I was thinking the same way until I realized that Canada estimates show mid-2018 for the current production as well (screenshot). I mean they are not only trying to deliver ~14K AWD cars to Canada but the ~3K RWD as well. That shows some serious dedication. That doesn't mean 200K US in early July 2018 instead of late April is going to happen but we should try to calculate how likely it is to succeed. We are back to optimistic scenario vs pessimistic scenario. I will look into this in detail.

I’m weighing in with the others that delaying 200k to Q3 just doesn’t square with U.S. delivery estimates of Q2 to all line waiters and even early online like myself.

 

[Troy]

I have updated the calculations again. I increased the production rate from 1,350 to 2,400 in Q1 and from 3,500 to 4,800 in Q2 after Tesla clarified something about battery module production bottlenecks. Check out the Electrek article here.

By the way, it is interesting that Tesla's estimates show Mid-2018 for half of the owners in the US but late-2018 for the other half and only late-2018 for non-owners. On the other hand, it shows mid-2018 for all Canada orders. This split between Mid-2018 and Late-2018 for US owners shows that these are not just some lose placeholder terms but they are based on actual calculations. I assume Early, Mid and Late mean the following:

Early 2018: Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr
Mid 2018: May, Jun, Jul, Aug
Late 2018: Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec

When Tesla made the changes, we deleted all Tesla.com estimates from the invites spreadsheet to have only new data. That turned out to be a good idea. You can see the data here. 11 owners have entered their latest Tesla.com AWD estimates. 6 of them are Late-2018 and 5 are Mid-2018.

 

[schonelucht]

I have updated the calculations again. I increased the production rate from 1,350 to 2,400 in Q1 and from 3,500 to 4,800 in Q2 after Tesla clarified something about battery module production bottlenecks. Check out the Electrek article here.

Is the Canada play still viable if the ramp is that much better?

 

[Troy]

Is the Canada play still viable if the ramp is that much better?

It looks difficult. Here are the new numbers:

Q1 2018:
21,870 production
16,582 deliveries

Q2 2018
47,833 production
41,151 deliveries

Edit: These are for the Model 3 only.

 

[smak]

I'm not following you; I've had a three month range on my First Production window from Tesla for months. Feb-Mar, then Mar-May, now Jun-Aug.

I'm saying there have been three month ranges like DEC-FEB, MAR-MAY etc...

And their have been non specific ranges, like EARLY 2018, MID 2018 and LATE 2018.

I'd much rather have MAR-MAY or APR-JUN then "MID 2018" Probably even MAY-JUL and JUN-AUG if there are such things.

Mid 2018 is a 6 month period, and those are all 3 month periods.

 

[schonelucht]

It looks difficult. Here are the new numbers:

Q1 2018:
21,870 production
16,582 deliveries

Q2 2018
47,833 production
41,151 deliveries

Total or just M3? Either way, it's difficult indeed. I really don't know what to make of it.

 

[Sonny Daze]

I can't think of any other reason for Tesla to move all Canadian estimates for First Production and AWD from Late 2018 to Mid 2018 and then move most US AWD estimates back to Late 2018 except to extend the US tax credit windows. Yes, there is a new focus on higher margin cars, but there are plenty of those buyers in the US. In addition, I don't think they are going to attempt this without making it happen. They are in control of the sale of the vehicles, so they can continue producing cars without delivering them if need be.

Edit: I would think the Canadian builds would start later than Troy suggests because of the number of March-May and April-June First Production delivery estimate windows in the US and I don't know if I agree with the idea of a complete shutdown of US deliveries for weeks.

 

[gregincal]

I'm not following you; I've had a three month range on my First Production window from Tesla for months. Feb-Mar, then Mar-May, now Jun-Aug.

Yes, and you used to have "Early 2018" as your SR estimate. Which do you think will be more accurate? As wrong as the 3 month windows may be, the Early, Mid, Late estimates seem like total guesses.

 

[ACPark]

I can't think of any other reason for Tesla to move all Canadian estimates for First Production and AWD from Late 2018 to Mid 2018 and then move most US AWD estimates back to Late 2018 except to extend the US tax credit windows. ...

NAFTA potentially ending could be another reason to concider.

 

[gregincal]

I can't think of any other reason for Tesla to move all Canadian estimates for First Production and AWD from Late 2018 to Mid 2018 and then move most US AWD estimates back to Late 2018 except to extend the US tax credit windows. Yes, there is a new focus on higher margin cars, but there are plenty of those buyers in the US. In addition, I don't think they are going to attempt this without making it happen. They are in control of the sale of the vehicles, so they can continue producing cars without delivering them if need be.

Edit: I would think the Canadian builds would start later than Troy suggests because of the number of March-May and April-June First Production deliver estimate windows in the US and I don't know if I agree with the idea of a complete shutdown of US deliveries for weeks.

There are plenty of buyers in the US, but there are buyers in Canada too. How do you know that the cars sold in Canada won't be higher margin for some reason. I just don't see what everything else being equal Tesla has to deliver to the US first. I think it's really unlikely that they will delay the 200K limit into Q3 and I just don't buy the argument that people can't think of another reason for the estimates. That doesn't mean there isn't one. The first production estimates clearly show that Tesla is going to continue delivering lots of cars in the US through June and for at least the next 3-5 months is going to deliver only to the US, which just doesn't square with this theory.

 

[ummgood]

March 13th! I'm ready!

 

[ℬête Noire]

NAFTA potentially ending could be another reason to concider.

True, Tesla might be nervous about getting caught up in that mess. Maybe they are concerned if they don't start moving now they'd not be able to pivot delivery plans fast enough to get through the bulk of sales in the 6 month window that'd start running if the Trump administration decides to initiating termination of NAFTA because of the stalled talks with Canada. *shrug*

 

[Sonny Daze]

...I just don't buy the argument that people can't think of another reason for the estimates. That doesn't mean there isn't one.

Agree, but I can't think of a better one.

How do you know that the cars sold in Canada won't be higher margin for some reason.

I believe they will be, that's what their delivery estimates say will be available (not SR RWD). It was suggested (here or somewhere) that was a reason cars might me going to Canada sooner, but I don't see them going to the trouble to shift cars to Canada for this reason. I believe they have to go to some trouble to build cars specifically for Canada. I don't think they can just say let's start shipping cars up north.

The first production estimates clearly show that Tesla is going to continue delivering lots of cars in the US through June and for at least the next 3-5 months is going to deliver only to the US...

True, but not as many as they had initially intended, which is why First Production estimates got pushed back 3 months in the US.

I'm open to other reasons, just don't see a good one at this point.

Edit: I could add that Elon had tweeted some time ago that Tesla might manipulate sales to extend the credit, but I have sworn off Elon tweets.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I believe they will be, that's what their delivery estimates say will be available (not SR RWD). It was suggested (here or somewhere) that was a reason cars might me going to Canada sooner, but I don't see them going to the trouble to shift cars to Canada for this reason. I believe they have to go to some trouble to build cars specifically for Canada. I don't think they can just say let's start shipping cars up north.

There can be a few quirks. Years back when we moved to the US, to bring our Infiniti G35x with us I had to pull out a fuse to disable the daytime running lights so that the movers could load it on the moving truck. I kept in my pocket and put back in as soon as we unloaded it at the other end but Infiniti had certified that model w/o running lights in the US, while Canada had required them on all new vehicles at the time.

However surely someone at Tesla has been working on ironing out any regulation issues already? They had already planned to start shipping to Canada within 6-8 months anyway.

 

[Dr. J]

There can be a few quirks. Years back when we moved to the US, to bring our Infiniti G35x with us I had to pull out a fuse to disable the daytime running lights so that the movers could load it on the moving truck. I kept in my pocket and put back in as soon as we unloaded it at the other end but Infiniti had certified that model w/o running lights in the US, while Canada had required them on all new vehicles at the time.

However surely someone at Tesla has been working on ironing out any regulation issues already? They had already planned to start shipping to Canada within 6-8 months anyway.

It's possible the regulatory systems are more harmonized now. After all, the US finally got day running headlights! (How many years after they were required in Canada?)

 

[03DSG]

It's possible the regulatory systems are more harmonized now. After all, the US finally got day running headlights! (How many years after they were required in Canada?)

Unswitched DRL’s (daytime running lights) were mandated on all new vehicles, domestic and imported, in Canada on January 1,1990 so 28 years ago. With mph/kph, Deg F/C etc easily switched on screen about the only thing different required now are the French ‘do this/don’t do that’ stickers..........

 

[RedOctober]

It's possible the regulatory systems are more harmonized now. After all, the US finally got day running headlights! (How many years after they were required in Canada?)

One reason they may want to hit Canada, specifically Ontario is because they offer $14,000.00 rebate and Tesla sells a lot of cars there. Ontario goes to the polls in June and the other front running political party said if they get in they are going to cancel the EV incentives. Maybe they want to allow the people from Ontario to configure their cars and get them in case there is a change in the EV incentive program. I know if it opens up to me in the next month I’m not waiting and ordering what I can just in case. $14,000.00 is a huge rebate to lose.

 

[Falkirk]

I'm wondering if Tesla really didn't try to extend the time before hitting 200k, why would they move forward Canadian reservations then? It was already late 2018 with no hint of it being sooner and I'm sure once they hit the 200k they will focus mostly on US orders to help max out the credit for customers.

 

[ℬête Noire]

One reason they may want to hit Canada, specifically Ontario is because they offer $14,000.00 rebate and Tesla sells a lot of cars there. Ontario goes to the polls in June and the other front running political party said if they get in they are going to cancel the EV incentives. Maybe they want to allow the people from Ontario to configure their cars and get them in case there is a change in the EV incentive program. I know if it opens up to me in the next month I’m not waiting and ordering what I can just in case. $14,000.00 is a huge rebate to lose.

Wow, didn't know about that. That'd be a huge motivation to get shipments in early. Even if it didn't impact which Q the 200K US deliveries mark happened, every vehicle to Ontario would be about 50% more rebate cash to customers than the same vehicle in the US.

 

[EVNow]

Interesting. Your update pushed my LR date waaay back, much farther than Tesla's new estimate.

To get to the correct estimate you should take Tesla estimate and add one Musk Quarter to it.