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Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

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I'm a non-owner who was a Day 1 reserve holder before reveal in Toronto and i was also bumped up to Mid 2018 for First production cars and AWD cars. According to Troy's estimates, I should have the car in May. I hope this pans out. My car is 17 years old and making awful sounds. It won't last much longer.
 
I hear ya, but consider this: if Tesla had been on Elon's original ramp estimate (hitting 5K/week by the end of December and/or producing the 80K Model 3s in 2017 like some predicted, they might've hit 200K in the first week of January. Since at best it's now going to be 3 months later, or maybe even six, that gives you all that much more time to save additional cash to make up for the $3750 you risk losing. Not sure exactly what your financial situation is, but if you were going to have to finance most of the car's price even with a 6 year loan you might be talking payments of over $500/month. So that's $1500 right there. Are you taking advantage of the delay to save up some more down payment?
yeah i hear what you're saying and i could afford if i wanted too but maybe it's a mental thing. Getting the car delayed again and that resulting in costing me money isn't sitting well with me. I don't really need a new car, i just kinda want one and everything about tesla and the model 3 seemed awesome to me. never having to go to the gas station or get an oil change again?! but maybe ill spend $20k less on new accord i hear they're nice...
 
Edit: Updated my times to 24 hour format vs AM/PM.

Can someone confirm exactly what time reservations online went live on 3/31. I was thinking 21:30 Central, 19:30 Pacific. I was hitting enter and got in quickly, but the confirmation email didn't come until the next day, so it doesn't have an exact timestamp of my reservation. I've slept too many nights since to remember for sure - but need confirmation on the time the online reservations started on 3/31.

Thanks,
 
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I'm a non-owner who was a Day 1 reserve holder before reveal in Toronto and i was also bumped up to Mid 2018 for First production cars and AWD cars. According to Troy's estimates, I should have the car in May. I hope this pans out. My car is 17 years old and making awful sounds. It won't last much longer.
same, minus the 17 year old car!
A lot will depend on Car #200k in the US. If 200k hits in Q2 we might get push back to our original date or worse, as i think they will rush to deliver as many cars in the US with full $7500 tax credit as possible.
 
I hear ya, but consider this: if Tesla had been on Elon's original ramp estimate (hitting 5K/week by the end of December and/or producing the 80K Model 3s in 2017 like some predicted, they might've hit 200K in the first week of January. Since at best it's now going to be 3 months later, or maybe even six, that gives you all that much more time to save additional cash to make up for the $3750 you risk losing. Not sure exactly what your financial situation is, but if you were going to have to finance most of the car's price even with a 6 year loan you might be talking payments of over $500/month. So that's $1500 right there. Are you taking advantage of the delay to save up some more down payment?
Agreed the only reason he's even close is because the model 3 has been very behind schedule
 
@Troy , your estimator seems to be quite fluid. My date has been moving all over everytime I check. Today it's 3 months later than a few days ago. It puts me outside Tesla's recently revised estimate. It appears this movement is based on your current owner RWD take percentage? Unfortunately, I sure hope the tools latest estimate is WRONG!
 
I'm working on a re-design.
@Troy there's a pretty material disconnect somewhere, and if history indicates anything it would be with Tesla not with your sheet. That said, I configured yesterday and Tesla says delivery in 3-6 weeks. Cool. But when I smash that little factoid up against the estimator, things fall apart quickly...estimator says I'm ~20,000 in production sequence with car delivery occurring 4/30, yet CJ's production ramp data doesn't seem to say that 20k cars will have been built that soon, let alone delivered. CJ's sheet also indicates config to delivery times of almost never as long as six weeks, further creating the feeling of a disconnect between Tesla telling me 3-6 weeks from config to deliver, vs what the data in the estimator and CJ's sheet imply. IF (huge if) Tesla is correct about 3-6 weeks, and if I'm really ~20k in production sequence, I believe that means that CJ's sheet is materially underestimating the status of the production ramp. All of this, frankly, is good news.

As an aside, I increasingly think that whether we see white interior next, vs non-owner US invites next, may indicate whether Tesla is sufficiently happy with production quality at this juncture to release Model 3 upon non-owners. If not happy quite yet, we will see white interiors as a stop-gap, to keep Model 3 in the hands of owners for several more weeks while QA continues its improvement journey. All that said, I'm assuming in this that Tesla's seat supplier has thousands of white seats ready to go...which is something that seems like would have leaked by now (seat mfr employee, etc).
 
That would be Tesla.
That wouldn't bode well for "white interior soon"? Even if there were zero part design changes, and all the materials miraculously had exactly the same physical qualities other than colour, even automating with simply a different colour can throw things because of optical sensors.

I still find @suwaneedad 's 2nd paragraph reasoning interesting, though.
 
I was wondering how the new update effects the global sequence number? I moved from about 15k before to 20k now. That is pushing me out about 2 months past my previous estimate by the sheet. Is the increase of people in front of me in line due to new owners (or them giving their reservations to someone else) or is it due to some other data that might not have been accounted for now? Either way I am at the very end of the new window that Tesla puts me in and I know there are hundreds if not thousands in my region who are after me in the same window so if I am in the last 2 weeks it would seem that either Tesla is still not under promising and over delivering or there is some difference in the sheet.
 
Edit: Updated my times to 24 hour format vs AM/PM.

Can someone confirm exactly what time reservations online went live on 3/31. I was thinking 21:30 Central, 19:30 Pacific. I was hitting enter and got in quickly, but the confirmation email didn't come until the next day, so it doesn't have an exact timestamp of my reservation. I've slept too many nights since to remember for sure - but need confirmation on the time the online reservations started on 3/31.

Thanks,

My recollection was that online registration started at 19:30 PT. My own entry was about 19:35.

edit; Google finds this: Tesla Model 3 preorders will begin at 7:30PM PT, an hour earlier than planned

edit2: I remember this because I postponed leaving work in order to place my order.

I actually tried at 7:25 pm PST and even though it was 5 minutes early, I got in:)