Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Foxhound199]

Not that it makes that big of a difference, but I really hope the time stamp isn't even part of the equation, and your relative order at each location is the factor. I only say this because I was annoyed to learn that the Tesla store across town opened at 9:30 and mine opened at 10:00.

 

[Big Dog]

us line-waiters are all counting on you Troy. (no pressure!)

 

[Troy]

Not that it makes that big of a difference, but I really hope the time stamp isn't even part of the equation, and your relative order at each location is the factor. I only say this because I was annoyed to learn that the Tesla store across town opened at 9:30 and mine opened at 10:00.

I'm pretty sure the time of your reservation, as it was recorded on the Tesla.com database, is what matters. Store employees had computers in front of them where they entered data to a page on Tesla.com that wasn't public yet. If you go to a Tesla store and want to order a Model S or X, they will just open the normal Tesla.com website and walk you through the online steps. It's identical to placing your reservation yourself.

A few hundred people reserving before 10 am is not going to make much difference considering that Tesla expects to reach 2,500 units/week (357/day) by the end of Q1 and 5,000/week (714/day) by the end of Q2. When I created the Estimator in 2016, I also found out about a few stores opening before 10 am. The estimator has a small quota for these people since then. Here is a screenshot from the Data tab, column AC. It shows estimated 265 existing reservations excluding employees when the stores opened at 10:00. If somebody has a better estimate, let me know.

 

[nvx1977]

@Troy now that you compressed the axes on the VIN graph (on the Model 3 Invites spreadsheet), can you set the dot size to 2px radius?

 

[pmich80]

Hey Troy, I thought the idea was that Tesla would divert deliveries to Canada between April and the end of the June. I had a delivery initially set for May but now it's been delayed until mid July. What's changed your views of shipments to Canada to later?

 

[nvx1977]

@Troy now that you compressed the axes on the VIN graph (on the Model 3 Invites spreadsheet), can you set the dot size to 2px radius?

Thanks @Troy !

(also weird to be quoting myself)

 

[Troy]

What's changed your views of shipments to Canada to later?

In the screenshot below look at the second part that shows data from the estimator spreadsheet. User chihuahua's Tesla.com estimate shows Late-2018 for AWD even though the reservation was on 1st Apr 2016. This was submitted on 15th February 2018. At that time when I started working on version 2.0, that was the latest data. Also, that entry is more specific for the first production. It shows May 2018 - July 2018 instead of the usual Mid - 2018. This looks like the latest version of the Tesla.com estimate. The calculations were based on that. I have now revised the calculations again for Canada.

If people want to submit more data for Canada, the invites spreadsheet now accepts data from Canada even if you don't have an invite yet. The idea is that people will update their entries at each step. I also collect Tesla.com data on the spreadsheet estimator here.

 

[FlyNavy01]

My data seems to be a bit of an outlier (entry #294 on the Tesla Estimates tab), and it may or may not help with the understanding of how Tesla is prioritizing.

I'm a non-owner and pre-ordered 3/31/16 at ~12:10pm eastern time, however I am taking delivery in my home state of Oregon. My First Production estimate has always been ahead of all the other east coasters that I've seen, and presumably even ahead of the folks who were in front of me in line from what I can tell. I believe this is because my Tesla account has my Oregon address for delivery location.

My original First Production estimate was Oct-Dec 2017, then bumped to Nov-Jan 2018, and most recently it now says Feb-Apr 2018. I've only seen one or two other non-owners who share this time frame on reddit, and even the 10:05am California reservationists seem to mostly all have Mar-May 2018. I'm not sure if this helps at all, but I believe it is the combination of delivery address and my reservation being the equivalent of ~9:10am west coast time, putting me ahead of most of the California reservations. If this is true, I may be one of the first non-owners to get an invite? Doesn't matter too much unfortunately for me as I'm deferring for the performance model, but we'll see what happens.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

My data seems to be a bit of an outlier (entry #294 on the Tesla Estimates tab), and it may or may not help with the understanding of how Tesla is prioritizing.

I'm a non-owner and pre-ordered 3/31/16 at ~12:10pm eastern time, however I am taking delivery in my home state of Oregon. My First Production estimate has always been ahead of all the other east coasters that I've seen, and presumably even ahead of the folks who were in front of me in line from what I can tell. I believe this is because my Tesla account has my Oregon address for delivery location.

My original First Production estimate was Oct-Dec 2017, then bumped to Nov-Jan 2018, and most recently it now says Feb-Apr 2018. I've only seen one or two other non-owners who share this time frame on reddit, and even the 10:05am California reservationists seem to mostly all have Mar-May 2018. I'm not sure if this helps at all, but I believe it is the combination of delivery address and my reservation being the equivalent of ~9:10am west coast time, putting me ahead of most of the California reservations. If this is true, I may be one of the first non-owners to get an invite? Doesn't matter too much unfortunately for me as I'm deferring for the performance model, but we'll see what happens.

Will be looking forward to hearing from you about your config within the next two weeks.

 

[FlyNavy01]

Will be looking forward to hearing from you about your config within the next two weeks.

Hope so! I will update as soon as it happens.

 

[Blissedout]

The new version is up. This is a completely new version that works differently. SR and SRD have been added. Also, you can now select two trim levels.

Model 3 Delivery Estimator 2.0

This one does much better on my configuration date.

 

[Dave B]

The new estimator putting me into early April instead of late May makes me happy.

Now to hope that Tesla hits close to that date.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

The new estimator putting me into early April instead of late May makes me happy.

Now to hope that Tesla hits close to that date.

I almost feel that @Troy had been lulled by tesla promises on earnings call. I want to state that based on exciting vin reports, they're still in 8k vin range. Meaning under 1k/week until now production rate. I thinks my m3 getting delivered in April (according to estimator) is optimistic. Originally, I've been really hoping (optimistically) for December delivery and look where that got us. At this point, we should be seeing 9-10k vins assignments today/this week for April delivery to happen. Fingers crossed that automation line will kick in soon and that all factory gates type issues are addressed so production can commence again at above 1k/week rate!

 

[insaneoctane]

While probably the easiest way to model it, @Troy's tool assumes linear growth between stated or observed milestones. Reality shows Tesla tends to make big step changes as bottlenecks are fixed. For example, we are getting about 1,000 per week right now. Once the battery equipment from Grohmann arrives and gets online, it jumps big time. Now, I know Tesla send a letter out saying they can hit 2,500/week without that equipment, but who believes that? I am just saying that the model appears to be more linear and reality through bottlenecks appears to be more step....
I am still using and an impressed with troy's estimator!

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. Calculations have been updated.

@insaneoctane, see my message here. This was one of the changes I made last week. The estimator is set to 1,050/week until the end of this month. In the screenshot, the first column shows the weekly production numbers I have entered. The second column automatically calculates production totals since inception based on the first column. The third column shows the production numbers Tesla has released. Q1 and Q2 numbers are set to 10% lower than Tesla's projections.

 

[Big Dog]

loving the new calcs, as I'm back into a March delivery date....

 

[suwaneedad]

Hi, everybody. Calculations have been updated.

@insaneoctane, see my message here. This was one of the changes I made last week. The estimator is set to 1,050/week until the end of this month. In the screenshot, the first column shows the weekly production numbers I have entered. The second column automatically calculates production totals since inception based on the first column. The third column shows the production numbers Tesla has released. Q1 and Q2 numbers are set to 10% lower than Tesla's projections.

@Troy on the recent earnings call, I thought Tesla was pretty clear that they would not BEGIN to invest in capacity beyond 5k units/wk until they'd first achieved 5k units/wk. I took that as a MAJOR capex update, in that they for the first time were signaling that they'd not be betting on the come as heavily as they've been in the past. If my takeaway is correct, that'd imply a plateau at 5k units/wk for some period of time while addl capacity is added, then a resumption of volume growth. 3-6 months plateau at 5k/wk??

 

[ZeApelido]

Too big of a production jump in March.

 

[Troy]

@suwaneedad, I would need to see the exact wording they have used. The video is here. You can give me links to a specific time in the video if you want. Alternatively, if you click CTRL+U on this page, you could search the transcript and show me an exact quote. Otherwise, this will have to wait until I listen to the conference call again. There is a question after 36:33 and Deepak says the following:

Deepak: that [$3.5 billion in 2018] includes completion of the payments that we still have to make on the capacity we are putting in place now as well as significant investment in our required up front for the next phase of Model 3 production to 10,000 plus per week.

 

[sreams]

Too big of a production jump in March.

Not necessarily. It shows 2250/wk in April, and Tesla's current outlook is to hit 2000-2500/wk my the end of March.