Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[ℬête Noire]

Except it doesn't just say AWD..

Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
Choice of 220 or 310 mile range

Mid 2018

I know exactly the text. I've been looking at it, too, for a very long time. There is a perfectly reasonable interpretation of it that the SRD won't ship at the start of that period. Given Telsa's roll-out history, and in their Q4 call stated their intention is to keep gross margins up, it is more likely than not that only LRD ships for the first while.

While SRD "Mid-2018" is possible, of course, it isn't even close to a lock or what you think you've been promised.

 

[Waiting]

Non-owner ordered this morning. Calif line waiter in Newport Beach, reserved at 10:13 am. Troy's estimate has me at Feb 28 for order, Mar 24 Delivery. Tesla says 3-6 weeks for delivery. Looks like Troy is spot on!

 

[gregincal]

Except it doesn't just say AWD..

Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
Choice of 220 or 310 mile range

Mid 2018

So when orders for AWD open up and they are only offering LR configurations, you can start a bunch of threads complaining how you were mislead. I believe they are indicating when AWD production will start and separately indicating that AWD will eventually be available in either config. Tesla has a long history of doing stuff like that.

 

[Kenypowa]

So when orders for AWD open up and they are only offering LR configurations, you can start a bunch of threads complaining how you were mislead. I believe they are indicating when AWD production will start and separately indicating that AWD will eventually be available in either config. Tesla has a long history of doing stuff like that.

It is possible as mid 2018 spans a few months. Perhaps LR AWD will be made before SR AWD but both still falls under mid 2018.

 

[Cintoman]

Non-owner ordered this morning. Calif line waiter in Newport Beach, reserved at 10:13 am. Troy's estimate has me at Feb 28 for order, Mar 24 Delivery. Tesla says 3-6 weeks for delivery. Looks like Troy is spot on!

Whoa....is this the first word of a non-owner getting invited to configure?

--Cintoman

 

[geoffreak]

Whoa....is this the first word of a non-owner getting invited to configure?

--Cintoman

There are many reports all over the forums and subreddit today of non-owners receiving invites.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Non-owner ordered this morning. Calif line waiter in Newport Beach, reserved at 10:13 am. Troy's estimate has me at Feb 28 for order, Mar 24 Delivery. Tesla says 3-6 weeks for delivery. Looks like Troy is spot on!

Wait. Wait, I had something for this......

 

[GDNTX]

@Troy - Thanks for all your work on the estimator, but I have a question - I'm a Non-Owner, reserved Online, Central Time in the US, 21:30 hours. If I enter that in the estimator I get that I am Global reservation number 74,000 and should configure on 4/17/2018. If I only do one thing and change the "online" to "In Store" my place drops to number 122,963 and won't configure until May 20. Are there other factors in play here with that number being such a big difference?

How and what time do you figure the two queue's becomes one? Do all in store reservations fit ahead of online regardless of time or vice versa? Or once the online reservations went live do you figure that everyone from that point forward became one queue regardless of which method was used to sign up?

I know at one time you asked for time in local time zone if you ordered online and Pacific time if you ordered in a store (or vice versa) but it seems that just changing from online to In Store I wouldn't drop that far, I'd figure I'd either remain the same place in line or move up for an In Store reservation. Is there still something calculating that two hour difference that shouldn't be just because of the location I select?

 

[insaneoctane]

@Troy, would you please confirm some of my math based off your spreadsheet? Now that non owners are getting invites ....

In the US there were approximately 12K line waiters. That is approximately 12 weeks of production at today's rate. But, you are predicting only 43% of US reservationists choose the currently available LR configuration. 11,869 * 43% = 5,103 line waiters who want the currently available configuration. Therefore if Tesla only delivers to the US, the line waiters will be "done" in 5 weeks?

Details :
I plugged in the time when stores opened and got:
US position 11,869
Then I plugged in time right when online reservations went live (7:08p):
US position 24,240
24,240-11,869=11,869 US line waiters Now, if there are additional lines waiters after the online system went live, they are missing. Also any employees or owners who decide to configure now will take away from the available production, but this close enough for me....

 

[ℬête Noire]

@insaneoctane

5ish weeks at this week’s est. production rate. However the estimate being used is that they’ll edge up somewhat, probably putting it closer to 4 weeks. The expected larger jump is late Mar/early Apr.

EDIT: Going from memory, tough to track down the graph because i’m on my phone right now.

 

[Troy]

I'm a Non-Owner, reserved Online, Central Time in the US, 21:30 hours. ... If I only do one thing and change the "online" to "In Store"

You need to enter online because you reserved online on the 31st. The Estimator corrects the time zone differences for in-store reservations on day 1. Let's assume you enter 31st March 2016 and in-store and one of these reservation times:

10:00 am Pacific Time
10:00 am Mountain Time
10:00 am Central Time
10:00 am Eastern Time

In each of these 4 cases, your place in the reservation queue will be the same. Why? Because it's fairer this way. Otherwise, line-waiters in Eastern states would be in front of the queue just because of their time zone. I assumed Tesla would do the right thing.

 

[jtri]

Troy your estimator had me configuring on the 27th. Boston store 10:04 AM order. I can configure now! Thanks for all you do

 

[JustinA1]

You need to enter online because you reserved online on the 31st. The Estimator corrects the time zone differences for in-store reservations on day 1. Let's assume you enter 31st March 2016 and in-store and one of these reservation times:

10:00 am Pacific Time
10:00 am Mountain Time
10:00 am Central Time
10:00 am Eastern Time

In each of these 4 cases, your place in the reservation queue will be the same. Why? Because it's fairer this way. Otherwise, line-waiters in Eastern states would be in front of the queue just because of their time zone. I assumed Tesla would do the right thing.

Doesn't it seem like thats exactly what happened though? Looking at the invites from today, it seems to just be ordered by PST and heavy on non-West Coast, and not adjusted as you suggest.

 

[Troy]

In the US there were approximately 12K line waiters.

Is there a good source for this? I'm calculating 68,000 reservations at 7:08 pm PST based on the hidden reservation numbers. That's about 37K reservations in the US including employees and 34K excluding employees. There is a big difference between this number and your 12K number.

 

[Troy]

Doesn't it seem like thats exactly what happened though? Looking at the invites from today, it seems to just be ordered by PST and heavy on non-West Coast, and not adjusted as you suggest.

So far, 66 non-owners have reported receiving an invite today and 28 are from California. Considering that about half of Teslas in the US are sold in California, this looks correct. Line waiters from Eastern states are not in the front of the invite list just because of their time zone. Each number on the map represents 1 invite. Ignore the numbers.

 

[PoitNarf]

@Troy Just wanted to thank you again for all of your work on this. Makes the waiting part of this just a little less frustrating. Very curious to see how the rest of my timeline plays out. So far I’m 5 days ahead of your config invite estimate. We’ll see how close your modeling is to my actual delivery date which according to your estimator the last time I checked was April 3rd.

 

[insaneoctane]

Is there a good source for this? I'm calculating 68,000 reservations at 7:08 pm PST based on the hidden reservation numbers. That's about 37K reservations in the US including employees and 34K excluding employees. There is a big difference between this number and your 12K number.

If you look at the bottom of my post, you'll see the math of where I got the twelve thousand number. I got it from your results.

 

[Troy]

I plugged in the time when stores opened and got: US position 11,869
Then I plugged in time right when online reservations went live (7:08p): US position 24,240

Those are production sequence numbers. You can't use those to calculate the number of line waiters because many line waiters don't want the Model 3 LR and many owners who are not line-waiters will be included in the production sequence numbers. If you want, you could explain what you wish to calculate and why so I can look into that.

 

[EVNow]

My guess looking at who can & who can't configure - people who booked till 12:00 noon can configure. Not the ones after 12, like me.

 

[vinnie97]

I reserved at 12:30 p.m. pacific but 11:30 a.m. mountain where delivery will occur (unless pickup ends up being an easier proposition)...no invite as of yet.