Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[sitter_k]

Thanks for making this, sheet it's fun to update and see how close we can get as time gets closer.
I think this calculator might be a little optimistic but who knows how things will shape up.

One point of contention, I'm in Toronto (Eastern Canada) typically Teslas don't arrive in Canada as early as our US neighbours. If I toggle the location between Canada and US eastern, my delivery date is March 6, 2018 Canada and April 9 for USA EST. Are you using an average for all of Canada, thinking that for example, Vancouver (western Canada) will get priority over someone in say New York City?

 

[ummgood]

@ummgood,
I was able to make use of the hidden reservation numbers after all. I used the list HERE by @zenmaster. The assumption is, the count starts at 350K and after the employee reservations, it was over 360K. Now, I'm using these numbers:

31 Mar 2016 08:00 10,323
31 Mar 2016 10:00 10,839
31 Mar 2016 12:30 32,000
31 Mar 2016 15:30 44,000
31 Mar 2016 19:30 62,000
31 Mar 2016 20:57 115,000

That is good! I wasn't sure if you could use it or not. Don't forget that that number also includes any Model S or Model X orders too I think. So on March 31st it is a pretty good representation of how things ramped up I don't know when the employees started placing orders and how long of a gap there was for others to put in Model S and X orders.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. I made major changes. Basically, I re-created everything from scratch. Try it out and let me know what you think:

Tesla Model 3 Delivery Estimator

Change log:
◘ Added global production sequence number.
◘ Separated background calculations for different regions in the USA. Each region is now processed like a different country.
◘ Added California on its own as a separate region.
◘ When calculating cancellations, it now only considers people in front of you instead of everybody.
◘ When calculating Tesla owners, it now only counts people after you in the queue because those in front of you are already in front. Adding them again would be duplicating that number. Thanks to @FloridaJohn for reporting this problem.
◘ Tax credits info has now been integrated. Instead of giving you a link to read through, it now displays the results of one optimistic and one pessimistic scenario based on your delivery date.
◘ When calculating highly optioned cars that have priority, it now calculates the number of people after you in the queue in the same region. Previously, it would add a fixed delay like 2 weeks.

 

[shrspeedblade]

It's a lot of fun to play around with. Although, I'm not sure going from a 75D to a 75 would push back my delivery from January of 2018 to January of 2019!

 

[Troy]

@shrspeedblade, I'm not sure about it either. I'm looking for more feedback about what happened with the Model X.

@Darryl, can you comment on this? After the owners get their cars, dual motor buyers wait until all performance cars are delivered within that region and then single motor buyers wait until all dual motors are delivered. Do you think it will happen like that?

I separated the trim levels into 3 categories:
1. Performance (includes P75D)
2. Dual motor (includes 75D and 55D)
3. Single motor (includes 75 and 55)

 

[Mark C]

I think this delivery estimator has given a lot of people a way to entertain themselves over the year and a half + / - wait most of us expect from Reservation opening until first deliveries.

I'm going to use my new rule of thumb on how I get mine. The longer I wait on the edge of my seat, the longer it's going to take. So, I'm going to watch others nitpick your delivery estimator and enjoy the show!

 

[melindav]

@Troy -- I've saved a couple different screen shots of my info to see how it compares to the actual
A couple comments, which you more than likely had already considered:

• I would expect some amount of priority per region to the opening weekend reservations. It looks like the spreadsheet is calculating reservations thru Sunday 11:59p to be just over 52%. How would treating these as a category separate from reservations made post 4/3/16 look? I would expect all employees/current owners to still take priority, but not specifically a higher optioned reservation made much later.
• Elon commented, I think in a tweet around the time of the Q2 call, that a current new reservation would still take delivery in 2018 (at that time). However, the spreadsheet gives such a priority to P_D, D configurations that a 'base' reserved the first day on the west coast shows early 2019. Kinda goes back to my 1st comment... Some line in the timeline would need to be drawn to deliver even the lesser models reserved early on. For example, the spreadsheet shows a California plain 55 reserved at 10a on 3/31/16 delivers on 1/4/19 while a California P75D reserved today delivers on 11/8/18, 2 months earlier than the standing-in-line reservation.

 

[msksus1]

thanks for the estimator. I will be interesting how close it is to reality. It gave me what i thought for relative time frame, dec of 17. looking forward to delivery.

 

[Troy]

@melindav,

I agree, the delays are too long if you select a single motor version. Basically, you have to wait until all performance and dual motor versions are delivered in your region. Currently, the estimator works like that but I'm not sure if Tesla would do it this way. I need to look a little more into this issue. What I have done is, I calculated the percentage of D and P versions based on gov.uk data here. It's a small sample size but it is the only data we have. It shows 9% performance version, 79% dual motor and 12% single motor. Gov.uk will publish data for another quarterly in early Dec. I will update the percentages then but I don't expect them to change much. I think Tesla will put all P versions on top of the list in each region no matter how late it was ordered because it's only 9%. However, you are probably right about splitting the D versions.

 

[melindav]

@melindav,

I agree, the delays are too long if you select a single motor version. Basically, you have to wait until all performance and dual motor versions are delivered in your region. Currently, the estimator works like that but I'm not sure if Tesla would do it this way. I need to look a little more into this issue. What I have done is, I calculated the percentage of D and P versions based on gov.uk data here. It's a small sample size but it is the only data we have. It shows 9% performance version, 79% dual motor and 12% single motor. Gov.uk will publish data for another quarterly in early Dec. I will update the percentages then but I don't expect them to change much. I think Tesla will put all P versions on top of the list in each region no matter how late it was ordered because it's only 9%. However, you are probably right about splitting the D versions.

I also think the ratio on the Model ☰ will be more toward the base than the Model S or X. I expect most S/X buyers are not as worried about the added feature's price tag as the Model ☰ buyers will be. What that means in percentages, no idea

 

[N5329K]

I preferred the estimator algorithm from a few days ago. Back then it showed my Model 3 being delivered in July 2018. Now it's showing January 2019.
We shall see.
Robin

 

[FloridaJohn]

Updates are great. I'm still more optimistic than your spreadsheet, but I wouldn't be surprised if you end up closer to correct than me. Your way is more scientific than mine, since I just took a Wild Ass Guess. Your's is more of a Scientific Wild Ass Guess.

You have me receiving my car in Sept 2018, but my guess is around March 2018. So were not too far away and I only typed this into my post so I can go back and see who guessed better when I get my car.

 

[EXOTIC1]

I still think it'll be first quarter 2018 before you'll start seeing any M3 cars delivered in U.S.



Car & Driver mag is saying 2019


Car and Driver predicts Tesla Model 3 will be 2 years late, here’s why they are wrong

 

[Booga]

I still think it'll be first quarter 2018 before you'll start seeing any M3 cars delivered in U.S.



Car & Driver mag is saying 2019


Car and Driver predicts Tesla Model 3 will be 2 years late, here’s why they are wrong

Yeah - I'm not going to be surprised by a delay that pushes a good amount of them into Q1 2018 and maybe just a "trickling" of deliveries Q3/Q4 2017. I'm honestly very flexible regarding when I receive my Model 3 except that I am counting on a decent tax credit. Without the tax credit, I may end up waiting another 5 years before getting a Model 3. The benefit of waiting is likely increased range and a more matured car with higher build quality. The tax credit effectively makes it worthwhile for me to get the car sooner than anticipated and so that's why I stood in line to reserve it on March 31st. I'm expecting it to have more problems than a matured car, but as long as it is all warrantied, I'm okay.

 

[melindav]

I still think it'll be first quarter 2018 before you'll start seeing any M3 cars delivered in U.S.

Car & Driver mag is saying 2019

Car and Driver predicts Tesla Model 3 will be 2 years late, here’s why they are wrong

the Car&Driver prediction was satirical.

 

[evilal]

Awesome tool. A question about delivery region: Where does Ireland fit in? We're RHD so will it be part of the UK "region" or the Other Europe "region"? We're due to get a sales office and service centre Q1 2017 or so I was told.

 

[Troy]

Hi @evilal,
Because it's RHD, Ireland would be same as the UK.

I would expect production start dates to be as follows:

1. North America
USA, California, 20 Oct 2017 (Production start date for non-employee cars)
USA, Pacific excluding California, 3 Nov 2017
USA, Mountain Time, 17 Nov 2017
USA, Central Time, 1 Dec 2017
USA, Eastern Time, 15 Dec 2017
Canada, 2 Jan 2018

2. Left-hand-drive:
China or Hong Kong, 2 Jan 2018
Europe excluding the UK and Ireland, 7 Jan 2018

3. Right-hand-drive:
Australia or New Zealand, 15 May 2018
UK and Ireland, 3 Jul 2018
Japan, 21 Aug 2018

 

[DavidP]

Thanks Troy for the tool!

For the production starts, I don't think they will produce China cars at the same time than the Canada cars. They already told that delivery will be done in North America before moving to Asia and Europe.

 

[Troy]

@DavidP, I agree. I was using Model X data and the dates there are a little unusual. Here are the first Model X delivery dates, average transit times, and the production start dates I calculated:
Canada: 2 Jun 2016, 32 days, 1 May 2016
China: 24 Jun 2016, 50 days, 5 May 2016
Europe: 30 Jun 2016, 47 days, 14 May 2016

I'm not sure what to make of it but I have now adjusted all dates to what makes more sense. New dates can be found on Data1 tab column G here.

 

[Weezer Fan]

According to your tool, I would get my car Feb 26, 2018. I figured it would be July at the earliest. I like yours better

BTW-I had to look up my old posts to see what time I made the reservation. I stood in line in Denver, but couldn't remember the time off hand.