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@Troy and @ModelNforNerd
Two things to consider based on my Model X reservation/production ramp experience:
Two things to consider based on my Model X reservation/production ramp experience:
- Tesla is likely managing expectations with the estimated dates. When I converted my reservation to an order for my X, I was given an expected delivery range of "Fall 2016". I took delivery in mid-July 2016.
- I don't think the potential lack of RWD orders matters because there will be 1) people converting to RWD to get earlier delivery and 2) new reservations for RWD cars. For example, I have a more or less base Model X. There are people who reserved/ordered after me who got their cars before I did because they ordered the models Tesla was producing at the time.
That and the price now that we have a better idea of what it is. Your AWD performance model is going to cost 70k.
For what it's worth, just prior to yesterday's event Elon said they currently have "over half a million" reservations total. See the second to last paragraph here:
Pared-down electric experience: Driving one of the first Model 3s off the line
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Troy, if you read my post above, any idea why there's such a discrepancy between their estimate and yours? Using yours I show a delivery date of Nov-Dec for the extended battery. Using theirs I'm seeing Mar-May. Even the standard battery puts me in the May-July timeframe. Kind of nuts that we're seeing this much of a disparity.
chibi_kurochan
Member
Well, not September or October. My Tesla estimate says it could come as early as July. Presumably employee orders are earlier. Still not early 2018 as expected and it makes you wonder about the fact that they say AWD deliveries start in "Spring 2018"
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Troy, a few observations ... as a Model S owner with two early 3/31/16 reservations. Hope this helps. 
Tesla SSO - Login
Tesla SSO - Login- Only the first reservation receives priority
- The second reservation receives geographic priority
- Only 1 month improvement for 1st 310 Mile reservation (Oct vs. Nov 2017)
- Only 1 month improvement for 1st 220 Mile reservation (Dec vs. Jan 2018)
- Only 2 month improvement for 1st dual motor AWD reservation (July vs. Sep 2018)
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Foxhound199
Member
It's in the FAQs: Owning one Tesla gets you priority for one model 3. Owning two Teslas gets you priority on two model 3s.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
@Oloron, thanks. I will use this in calculations.
@Ken7, my estimator is not accurate because it was based on what Elon had said in his tweets and last month during the shareholder meeting. Now they are saying completely different things. I hope people understand this and don't blame me for Tesla changing their projections. Some people here implied my estimator was not accurate.
@gregincal, I think I might end up using the employee data and ignoring the rest.
By the way, lots of people were speculating over 238 mi EPA with base version. My estimate was 218 mi EPA. Tesla says 220 mi. Also, I estimated $45,000 starting price for larger battery RWD version. Tesla says $44,000. The longest range is more than I thought but overall I'm happy with my estimates. It is a shame the Estimator turned out to be wildly different because Tesla has changed their plans. Just last month during the shareholder meeting Elon said late 2017 or early 2018 for AWD.
I will check all screenshots added to this thread. Thanks to people who are adding those. Are there people here from Europe? Can you add screenshots, please?
@Ken7, my estimator is not accurate because it was based on what Elon had said in his tweets and last month during the shareholder meeting. Now they are saying completely different things. I hope people understand this and don't blame me for Tesla changing their projections. Some people here implied my estimator was not accurate.
@gregincal, I think I might end up using the employee data and ignoring the rest.
By the way, lots of people were speculating over 238 mi EPA with base version. My estimate was 218 mi EPA. Tesla says 220 mi. Also, I estimated $45,000 starting price for larger battery RWD version. Tesla says $44,000. The longest range is more than I thought but overall I'm happy with my estimates. It is a shame the Estimator turned out to be wildly different because Tesla has changed their plans. Just last month during the shareholder meeting Elon said late 2017 or early 2018 for AWD.
I will check all screenshots added to this thread. Thanks to people who are adding those. Are there people here from Europe? Can you add screenshots, please?
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Troy, I think you did an amazing job with the information that was available. Nobody should be upset by the deltas between yours & Tesla's. You can't read their minds.
I agree this makes modeling tricky.
From your prior comments, I assume you know this, but for others who might not.... Info from earnings calls and shareholder meetings is more accurate than marketing info. Companies (and executives) have way more legal leeway to "manage expectations" with customers than they do investors. Situations can always change, but if current info from an earnings call seems to conflict with marketing info - believe the earnings call.
Reservation made in mid June for Model 3. Took delivery of inventory S100D on quarter end 6/30 and got it a few weeks later.
Was surprised to see Nov-Jan for 310 RWD. Standard RWD at Jan-Mar, and Dual Sep-Nov 18. Going with larger battery. Dual Motor not needed.
Was surprised to see Nov-Jan for 310 RWD. Standard RWD at Jan-Mar, and Dual Sep-Nov 18. Going with larger battery. Dual Motor not needed.
That just reminds me that they have a conference call in 4 days on 2nd Aug 2017 (source). Usually, there is lots of useful information in these conference calls.
$49k for the first Model 3's, per Tesla's website? Somehow I was hoping for $35k. Silly me, wishful thinking. I lined up at 5:30am in Calif, and my estimate is Nov 2017-Dec for a $49k model of Jan-Mar 2018 for a $35k model.
Hey, when will Tesla hit 200k cars in the US? I hope I get some Fed tax incentives if I want a performance version in Sep-Nov 2018, but it doesn't sound like it. That means a performance version will cost me $7.5k more on top of a price bump. How much $$$ is a performance dual motor going to run?
Hey, when will Tesla hit 200k cars in the US? I hope I get some Fed tax incentives if I want a performance version in Sep-Nov 2018, but it doesn't sound like it. That means a performance version will cost me $7.5k more on top of a price bump. How much $$$ is a performance dual motor going to run?
thanks, yes i can see if i follow the link in the FAQ i get that screen! i reserved at 7:25PM on 31 march 2016 and i am not an employee and don't already own a tesla; for the big battery it says dec 2017-feb2018, for the small battery, feb-april 2018, and AWD oct-dec 2018.
so a month or three past what Troy's estimator was saying (17 november if i remember correctly).
so a month or three past what Troy's estimator was saying (17 november if i remember correctly).
I found the video here from last month's shareholder meeting where Elon says AWD at the end of this year or early next year. It looks like they have added 6 months to it. Not sure why.
@InsideScooper, my estimate was $74,000 starting price for the performance version. I will stick with that. Also, I estimate 3.1s 0-60.
@InsideScooper, my estimate was $74,000 starting price for the performance version. I will stick with that. Also, I estimate 3.1s 0-60.
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