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Not to skew your data ....
I'm in the Midwest and a non-owner, may dates are:
Nov 17 - Jan 18 for the immediate production
Jan 18 - Mar 18 for the base
July 18 - Sept 18 for AWD
I'm also a day one line waiter so that probably has a lot to do with it.
Up until today the Estimator was telling me early 2018 (East Coast, non-employee, non-Tesla owner). Now it's showing early 2019.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Thanks, @melindav. That's very interesting. I feel now good about my predictions. On 29 July, I had a theory and made a prediction based on that:
Then the next day we saw May 2018 and I made another prediction:
Now, on the form results, I see April 2018. Here is my third prediction: We won't see March 2018 for AWD. The earliest AWD will remain April 2018. If we see March 2018, then it means I need to increase cancellation rate. Currently, I have set it at 15%.
Then the next day we saw May 2018 and I made another prediction:
Now, on the form results, I see April 2018. Here is my third prediction: We won't see March 2018 for AWD. The earliest AWD will remain April 2018. If we see March 2018, then it means I need to increase cancellation rate. Currently, I have set it at 15%.
Last edited:
Model S M.D.
Ludicrous Radiologist
Ordered online, 3/31/16, current Tesla owner, Texas
First production: October-December 2017
Standard battery: December-February 2018
Dual Motor AWD: June-August 2018
My second reservation I made right after the first one presumably doesn't give me priority since I only own one Tesla. Here is the info as a data point:
First production: November-January 2017
Standard battery: January-March 2018
Dual Motor AWD: July-September 2018
Looks like my Tesla ownership gave me about a 1 month head start/advantage?
First production: October-December 2017
Standard battery: December-February 2018
Dual Motor AWD: June-August 2018
My second reservation I made right after the first one presumably doesn't give me priority since I only own one Tesla. Here is the info as a data point:
First production: November-January 2017
Standard battery: January-March 2018
Dual Motor AWD: July-September 2018
Looks like my Tesla ownership gave me about a 1 month head start/advantage?
diamond.g
Active Member
fluxemag
Member
Reserved 8/14/16, Tesla owner, West coast.
First production: October-December 2017
Standard battery: December-February 2018
Dual Motor AWD: July-September 2018
First production: October-December 2017
Standard battery: December-February 2018
Dual Motor AWD: July-September 2018
JSkrehot
Member
Troy...Tesla has me delivery estimate for the long range as Feb-Apr. Any idea when I will be invited to the actual configurator? Do they only invite a couple months in advance since there is such a backlog? Thanks.Thanks, @melindav. That's very interesting. I feel now good about my predictions. On 29 July, I had a theory and made a prediction based on that:
Then the next day we saw May 2018 and I made another prediction:
Now, on the form results, I see April 2018. Here is my third prediction: We won't see March 2018 for AWD. The earliest AWD will remain April 2018. If we see March 2018, then it means I need to increase cancellation rate. Currently, I have set it at 15%.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
S owner since 2013. Bought in CA, but now live in NM.
Reserved Model 3 online at 7:44pm PT 3/31/2016.
Tesla tells me my delivery estimate is Oct-Dec 2017. I'm surprised by that.
Reserved Model 3 online at 7:44pm PT 3/31/2016.
Tesla tells me my delivery estimate is Oct-Dec 2017. I'm surprised by that.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
The first non-employee cars aren't being delivered until October. Sounds like you're right where you're supposed to be.
Interesting. Wonder why the Tesla gods have smiled on me?
I am east coast and didn't reserve till May and I am Nov '17-Jan slot
Just a heads up for anyone who might be having the same problem as me. I put down my deposit last week and was expecting a later delivery date than most given the date of my deposit but I was showing early 2019 regardless of configuration despite being a Tesla owner and living in California.
I called Tesla today just to ask if there was some sort of glitch as I don't think there's another existing owner in California reporting a 2019 delivery date, regardless of when they slapped down their deposit. Sure enough, there was a glitch. Despite my M3 reservation clearly showing in my Tesla account right next to my P85D, the agent on the phone said that they had two separate accounts for me in the system, both with the same email address but that the Model 3 was on it's own and not showing me as an existing owner. They merged the accounts and the agent stated that should fix my wacky delivery date since the reservation will now show me as an existing owner. I'll update with the new reservation date if anyone cares.
I called Tesla today just to ask if there was some sort of glitch as I don't think there's another existing owner in California reporting a 2019 delivery date, regardless of when they slapped down their deposit. Sure enough, there was a glitch. Despite my M3 reservation clearly showing in my Tesla account right next to my P85D, the agent on the phone said that they had two separate accounts for me in the system, both with the same email address but that the Model 3 was on it's own and not showing me as an existing owner. They merged the accounts and the agent stated that should fix my wacky delivery date since the reservation will now show me as an existing owner. I'll update with the new reservation date if anyone cares.
Garlan Garner
Banned
And I thought it was strange that Chicago was considered to be in the Midwest.
This whole country must be in the west. Where does east start?
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