Model 3 depreciation (AKA when will I be able to afford a used Model 3?) ;-)

[T-Will]

Just curious what people think the depreciation will be on the $54,000 black Model 3 Long Range RWD with Autopilot? What will it be going for in 1, 2, 3, 4 years? When might we see these in the mid $30,000’s?

I know this exact model isn’t available anymore, and have seen these on the used market for around $49,000 (under 10k miles with VIN around 5000), so they seem to be holding their value pretty well. Personally, I hope as production increases, more will be available on the used market.

 

[cab]

Probably not as soon as you would like, but sooner than you think. If the rebate does drop at year end, and Tesla does not drop the price accordingly, then that keeps the value of used cars a bit higher (since those sellers know the new cars get a reduced rebate).

On the upside for you, I think the availability of the cheaper Mid-range and possible introduction of the short range car will push used prices down as folks will likely cross-shop and many will likely prefer a new "whatever" over a used ride.

Finally, a Model 3 anomaly. I think there are an inordinate number of buyers for this car who stretched WAY beyond their means to pick one up. They undoubtedly still love their rides (mostly), but I suspect many will (after the "new" wears off) be faced with the harsh reality of a car and insurance payment that is world's away from what they are used to with that Civic or Midrange Accord they used to have. Those folks may be forced to give up their rides. Of course, most are likely upside down... 'Murica.

 

[StellarRat]

Maybe, you have to keep in mind that not buying gas and much lower maintenance costs will also play into their calculations.

 

[cab]

Maybe, you have to keep in mind that not buying gas and much lower maintenance costs will also play into their calculations.

If they drive a thousand miles a month what's that? Maybe $110-$140 a month (ignoring that electricity isn't free) as compared to a Civic or Accord at say 28 mpg. No oil changes only goes so far and given how Tesla's tend to eat (expensive) tires, that likely consumes a lot of that benefit. When comparing new for new, both cars have warranties that shield the buyers from the big hits in the early years. There is a reason these folks were driving Civics and Accords and not 3 series and A4s.

For the record, I know there are lots of folks who can afford these cars, but I still see an awful lot of young folks picking them up...this makes Dave Ramsey sad (or pehaps glad since he knows he has a gig for life).

 

[Twiglett]

I wouldn't expect a significant used market until either the Y is available or leases start expiring, but they have to be widely available.
Short version - don’t hold your breath.

 

[voip-ninja]

Just curious what people think the depreciation will be on the $54,000 black Model 3 Long Range RWD with Autopilot? What will it be going for in 1, 2, 3, 4 years? When might we see these in the mid $30,000’s?

I know this exact model isn’t available anymore, and have seen these on the used market for around $49,000 (under 10k miles with VIN around 5000), so they seem to be holding their value pretty well. Personally, I hope as production increases, more will be available on the used market.

Mid 30's? Very soonest is probably about 2 or 2.5 years away based on current pricing.

 

[timk225]

If I decide to sell my 3 after 3 years and with 50,000+ miles, I'll still want $40K+ for it, because it's awesome and in demand.

Any black car will be worth less, because black paint is ugly.

 

[Forcelite]

Many Buyers who used to buy mid $20-30k cars are buying new model 3’s in the mode $55k. Tesla themselves have said this due to the amount of lower priced car they are getting for trade ins. Also, look at the amount of people that are asking for longer financing.

You can’t tell me that there are not allot of people that where excited and pulled the trigger on a way more expensive car then they planned.

 

[KenF]

If Tesla offers the mid-range RWD on a 3-year lease starting at around $500/mo, as is rumored, there will be a lot of used vehicles available for sale in three years.

 

[T-Will]

Just came across this M3 with Autopilot for $48K (through a dealer).

Autotrader - page unavailable

 

[Zorg]

Within 12 months, I expect that north America supply will be plentiful and therefore the 3 will start to follow a normal depreciation curve. So your $50k car will be worth low 30s within 2 years, and that doesn't take into account Tesla improvements that will further depreciate older cars.

 

[Glamisduner]

about one more year. Mine has already depreciated like $18,000 and I don't have it yet.

 

[LyftupX]

Right now all used sellers are asking way too much.

I’d say 2 years you can get one you want for $30k with north of 50k miles on it.

 

[Scott7]

I’d say 2 years you can get one you want for $30k with north of 50k miles on it.

50k miles?! The percentage of owners putting 25k miles per year has to be single digits.