lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
insaneoctane
Active Member
I'm not thrilled by all this latest news. but, doesn't Tesla appear to still be within their delivery guidance per the estimator? I was hoping 2017, but the delivery estimator shows NOV 2017 thru JAN 2018 for me....
If you assume nothing else goes wrong before then, sure. If you’ve been in manufacturing before you’ll know that something will probably go wrong next week and delay it further. That’s the problem with schedules laid out for design and production. They generally assume everything goes perfectly. As soon as anything happens your schedule is shot. Then you reschedule assuming everything from that point on goes perfectly..
This is how a Boeing 787 takes twice as long to get to certification as originally planned.
Garlan Garner
Banned
That's absolutely Ludicrous isn't it?
Yet folks keep excusing both He and Tesla all of the time.
Garlan Garner
Banned
How can anyone tell? They wont say anything about how many employees vs line waiters vs west to east location or anything.
McHoffa
EV.network
he never promised FSD in 3-6 months, he said that's when self driving features would move beyond EAP features. He was still way off, but he definitely was not talking about FSD. He sad FSD was about 2 years off. The original question was:
"At what point will "Full Self-Driving Capability" features noticeably depart from "Enhanced Autopilot" features?"
McHoffa
EV.network
I'm pretty bummed. Not getting it this year means I'll owe $6-7k in April instead of getting $500-1500 back. That will eat my down payment, so if I can't get December, I'll probably have to push out to May. Also means the tax credit might be gone for me (and others hoping for this year) since congress may very well scrap it.
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
PJFW8
Red Menace may hurt me
McHoffa
EV.network
Because that’s possibly 200,000 Teslas next year times $7500 and 200,000 times $3750 that the government has to give back to the taxpayers, or $2.25 billion. That’s a pretty big loss for the government.
I thought I read that scrapping it was on the table.
Az_Rael
Supporting Member
AEB was disabled for all the 2.5 AP cars. Based on the recent posts in the giant thread about it, it’s still not enabled.
Tesla Turns Off AEB In New Cars Produced Since July
PJFW8
Red Menace may hurt me
Good point. Considering Congress does not seem agree on anything, they probably won’t be able to agree to repeal this program. That is my hope anyway.
Garlan Garner
Banned
It almost looks like the Model 3 is Tesla's first car.
People keep saying that they have done this same thing over and over before.....therefore ....... just accept it.
People keep saying that they have done this same thing over and over before.....therefore ....... just accept it.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
The point is taken but, the math's off though. It wouldn't be 200,000 x $7,500 next year. All of the Tesla Roadster, S, X and the few 3s that have ever been sold (and will be sold the rest of this year) in the US will count towards the initial 200,000.
See Federal Tax Credits for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Cars (look for Phaseout).
I'd think somewhere around 40,000 Teslas may get the full credit next year. And, from thereon, it's by the quarter and not by number sold.
Personally, I don't think Congress will bother with this one.
Now that it's about to end for Tesla, but will still be available for all the other manufacturers, I believe there will be a lot less calls to scrap it.
My concern is that is will be scrapped as part of the sweeping “tax reform” plan that the republicans are pushing. Luckily their current plan looks to be as awful and moronic as everything else they’ve tried to do so hopefully it has no chance of getting the 60 votes necessary to pass the senate (unless they pull some maneuver and only need 50 votes).
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
I don't think they're excusing him, just accepting reality. If Toyota was coming to market with a $45k, 300+ mile, EV sport sedan this year, I might spring for that, even if it looked like the current Prius (I would have to think a lot about it though).
But everyone, Toyota included, is years, or even decades behind Tesla. People excuse production delays, some problems with quality (I think the 3 will be better than the S/X), and partially finished UIs/features because Elon is the only one willing to build a competitive EV.
If someone did it better than he does, I'm sure he would bow out and invest his time in something else to help humanity. Unfortunately for us, the established players in the auto world can't find their EVs in the dark with both hands.
^ Like a few have mentioned, delay in EV adoption likely because of:
Unionized ICE and transmission assembly workers
Significant improvements in battery technology down the road-- density, chemistry and range
Lack of charging network
Letting Tesla test the water/market
I doubt Toyota and other very flexible car makers will not be able to catch up. Maybe 1-2 seconds slower going 0-60, no SCN, less cool exterior design, sometimes crappy dealership service but other than that, I don't see a lot of hindrance.
It's not as if Tesla and Panasonic owns all the lithium and cadmium minerals on Earth.
Unionized ICE and transmission assembly workers
Significant improvements in battery technology down the road-- density, chemistry and range
Lack of charging network
Letting Tesla test the water/market
I doubt Toyota and other very flexible car makers will not be able to catch up. Maybe 1-2 seconds slower going 0-60, no SCN, less cool exterior design, sometimes crappy dealership service but other than that, I don't see a lot of hindrance.
It's not as if Tesla and Panasonic owns all the lithium and cadmium minerals on Earth.
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