Model 3 Design Studio Open

[Ludatik]

I think the Model 3 Design Studio is now open to the general public:

https://3.tesla.com/en_US/model3/design#battery

 

[PhilDavid]

Can't wait to see the first AWD P Models doing 0-60 runs. really curious to see if the actual performance would match a P85D.

 

[Ludatik]

They are still listing the provincial incentives, even for P-AWD.

 

[SD_Engnr]

I think the Model 3 Design Studio is now open to the general public:

https://3.tesla.com/en_US/model3/design#battery

Indeed it is!

 

[CtznSnips]

Do you think it means they are running low on LR, AWD, and performance reservations in North America?

Maybe there are more SR reservations than anticipated

 

[SD_Engnr]

Do you think it means they are running low on LR, AWD, and performance reservations in North America?

Maybe there are more SR reservations than anticipated

SR config has not opened yet.

 

[TesWhisperer]

SR config has not opened yet.

Yes exactly. So what do you think? Does that mean they are running low on LR, AWD, and performance reservations in North America? As more than expected # of them are waiting for SR, which has not opened yet. And Tesla needs more LR orders with higher margin to ramp up production and lower cost for eventual SR availability?

 

[kablammyman]

Im wondering this too...maybe the amount of people who can or want to pay for 60k model 3 has theirs already? Maybe the 35k starting price is the price most people wanted?

 

[SD_Engnr]

Yes exactly. So what do you think? Does that mean they are running low on LR, AWD, and performance reservations in North America? As more than expected # of them are waiting for SR, which has not opened yet. And Tesla needs more LR orders with higher margin to ramp up production and lower cost for eventual SR availability?

No clue. I, for one, am waiting for additional information regarding the AWD versus P-AWD before I confirm my order. I just want confirmation on what EXACTLY you get for the additional $$ on the P-AWD besides the quicker acceleration, and higher topspeed. I imagine that once this is clarified, there will be more orders as folks can get off the fence and confirm the order. Or, at least, there will be one more order after I click on the blue order button...

 

[AnarchyEOD]

Non-refundable deposits... locking up that money! It’s guaranteed!

 

[GenSao]

Do you think it means they are running low on LR, AWD, and performance reservations in North America?

Maybe there are more SR reservations than anticipated

I don't think they are running low on demand for the the higher trims [LR ($49K), LR-D ($53K), and P-LR-D ($64K)] per say. Lets say out of the 410,000 remaining reservation holders, about 20% (rounded down) are interested in the higher trims in the US. Of the 100,000 orders, lets assume a conservative 5,000 production/delivery rate. This would mean there is about 5 months of orders remaining.

Tesla is maximizing profit for the 3rd and 4th quarter for 2018. They are allowing everyone to order cars with high margins first. The $7,500 Federal Tax Credit will expire at the end of the year. Consumers are aware of this and likely justify getting the higher trim to qualify for the tax credit.

I imagine (and hope) configurations for SR will open up sometime in October or November for Delivery in December 2018. The usual priority for the LR version should prevail: 1) Tesla Employees/Insiders, 2) Ex. Tesla owners, 3) 1st Day Line Waiters (Non Owner), 4) Previous (Non Owner) Online reservations, and finally 5) new orders.

I am hopeful for those that reserved over two years ago can get their car this year!

 

[CtznSnips]

I don't think they are running low on demand for the the higher trims [LR ($49K), LR-D ($53K), and P-LR-D ($64K)] per say. Lets say out of the 410,000 remaining reservation holders, about 20% (rounded down) are interested in the higher trims in the US. Of the 100,000 orders, lets assume a conservative 5,000 production/delivery rate. This would mean there is about 5 months of orders remaining.

I don't follow your math, 20% of 410,000 is only 82,000.

82,000 orders at 5000 per week is about 16 weeks, and there are 24-25 weeks left in the year. So according to your assumptions, they are low on higher trim reservations.

 

[clove503]

I don't know if they are low on interest/orders as much as they are trying to maximize profit for this year by allowing everyone to now jump in front of the SR reservation people. They want to boost those margins before they get a little tighter with the standard battery.

 

[Thomas Edison]

I'm worried that this means someone today can order a P with EAP and push my placed order that's lower margin back. Potentially pushing me to a lower tax credit.

 

[TesWhisperer]

I don't know if they are low on interest/orders as much as they are trying to maximize profit for this year by allowing everyone to now jump in front of the SR reservation people. They want to boost those margins before they get a little tighter with the standard battery.

Or get this. Both. Both low on orders and wanting to maximize profit. They’re not mutually exclusive no?

 

[drj3]

In 2016 62% of Tesla's sales were in the US. If 62% of the 470,000 reservations were in the US that makes 291,400 US reservations. When Nissan introduced the Leaf in 2010 they got 20,000 pre-orders at $100 each and had about 50% of those who pre-ordered actually take delivery. Let's say Tesla gets more like 80%. That leaves 233,000 US reservations who will convert to orders. If 50% of reservations holders either are not ready to order or are waiting for other options (short range, other interior colors, no PUP) you get about 116,000 ready to order. Subtract the cars already delivered and you are down to about 92,000. At current production levels they can build that many in 18 weeks. Makes perfect sense to allow anyone in the US who wants the current production models to order before adding more international markets or switching production to other models. At least from a shareholder perspective.

 

[ebmcs03]

Let’s open all premium orders to international reservation holders and interests, exhaust those orders before releasing the $35k version!

 

[GenSao]

I don't follow your math, 20% of 410,000 is only 82,000.

82,000 orders at 5000 per week is about 16 weeks, and there are 24-25 weeks left in the year. So according to your assumptions, they are low on higher trim reservations.

Whops, a brain fart on my part. My assumption of 20% is a guess. It could be 25% or 30%...

Do consider Tesla says up to 5 months for delivery of any of the higher trims. So working the other way, 5 months approximately equals 22 weeks. 22 weeks x 5,000 per week = 110,000 reservations/orders fulfilled. 110,000 / 410,000 outstanding orders = 27% of orders are LR, LR-D, or P-LR-D.

 

[CUBldr97]

So whats the point of a reservation now?

 

[diplomat33]

So whats the point of a reservation now?

Your reservation will still give you some priority.