I'll just remind people that in the Secret Tesla Master Plan Elon talked about them building "an affordable car" that was going to be a "sporty 4 door family car". Was he talking about the Model 3? No, that was his description of the Model S. The Model 3 was described as "an even more affordable car".
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I'll just remind people that in the Secret Tesla Master Plan Elon talked about them building "an affordable car" that was going to be a "sporty 4 door family car". Was he talking about the Model 3? No, that was his description of the Model S. The Model 3 was described as "an even more affordable car".
Yeah, as I quoted above it was just the affordable car, not the even more affordable car. The fact is that Tesla makes the cars they feel will be excellent and leaders in their price range. The Model 3 is not suddenly going to be a car that everyone will be able to afford, nor is it meant to be. It's just part of the evolution of pushing EVs into the mainstream. If I hear one more person say that a car that will start at 35K for a stripped down base model is going to be a car for the masses I might scream.
It took Toyota about a decade to reach the masses with the Prius, IMO. Tesla unleashed the Roadster in 2008 and should be well underway with the 3 by 2018. Of course, Tesla is also a new company with not nearly as a diversified product line as Toyota, but Tesla could do a lot worse than hitting $35k by 2018 as far as long-range BEVs are concerned. I would also hope it wouldn't take yet another 5-10 years (a reference to the aforementioned CPO Model 3 remarks) to get a new 200+ mile model with Prius-level pricing.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
God.
What planet are you people from...?
The Toyota Prius has sold over 100,000 units in the United States every year since 2005. The least it ever sold was a small amount over 20,000 units its first year of release in 2002. The next year it moved 24,000. By 2004 it had crossed 50,000 units for good.
Truthfully, any vehicle that exceeds 30,000 units per annum sold in the US is mass market. There are long established traditional automobile manufacturers for whom every vehicle they sell in the US barely crests a 30,000 unit total -- combined. Almost every passenger car in the top twenty-five for 2014 sold at least 100,000 units. And the BMW 3-series outsold the Prius in 2014.
So claiming that the Tesla Model ≡ will not be mass market because of its starting price is woefully inaccurate, considering the sales goal.
Damn.
What planet are you people from...?
The Toyota Prius has sold over 100,000 units in the United States every year since 2005. The least it ever sold was a small amount over 20,000 units its first year of release in 2002. The next year it moved 24,000. By 2004 it had crossed 50,000 units for good.
Truthfully, any vehicle that exceeds 30,000 units per annum sold in the US is mass market. There are long established traditional automobile manufacturers for whom every vehicle they sell in the US barely crests a 30,000 unit total -- combined. Almost every passenger car in the top twenty-five for 2014 sold at least 100,000 units. And the BMW 3-series outsold the Prius in 2014.
So claiming that the Tesla Model ≡ will not be mass market because of its starting price is woefully inaccurate, considering the sales goal.
Damn.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Depends on your definition of "mass market". To me mass market is between $20k and $30k in the US now. Largest selling sedans and small SUVs/CUVs are priced in this range.
Ofcourse, it makes little difference what someone thinks of "mass market". If Model 3 can sell in excess of 100k a year in the US, I'd consider it a great success - that will force all OEMs to get into EV market. It will be the proverbial tipping point - and that is all that matters.
I'm from Planet Indigent due to some chronic health issues and poor decisions. 
I agree with EVNow's range for mass market, and that was what I meant when I said "reach the masses." My main fault is I thought the original Prius was priced much higher than the level it currently is, and doing a little research reveals the first model in the NA market was already in the low 20ks, so I apologize for starting with a faulty premise due to misinformation.
I agree with EVNow's range for mass market, and that was what I meant when I said "reach the masses." My main fault is I thought the original Prius was priced much higher than the level it currently is, and doing a little research reveals the first model in the NA market was already in the low 20ks, so I apologize for starting with a faulty premise due to misinformation.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Mass market may conceivably be defined by either price point or units sold.
I prefer to go by units sold.
There are some cars that cost less than $20,000 or $30,000 to start, that sell less than 20,000 units per year. Just because a car is inexpensive doesn't mean it will sell in great numbers. The BMW 3-Series outsells numerous vehicles that cost less than it. Heck, so do the Camry and Accord.
I prefer to go by units sold.
There are some cars that cost less than $20,000 or $30,000 to start, that sell less than 20,000 units per year. Just because a car is inexpensive doesn't mean it will sell in great numbers. The BMW 3-Series outsells numerous vehicles that cost less than it. Heck, so do the Camry and Accord.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Bovine feces. Have they ever refused somebody's cash?
Ferrari driver Prius driver or 85 Plymouth Voyager driver. Everyone is welcomed at a Tesla store to buy a Model S.
Not everyone can afford a Model S. Not everyone will be able to afford a Model 3 either.
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He described the Roadster as high priced low volume car.
The Model S as a mid priced medium volume car.
And Model 3 as a low priced high volume car.
People buying Versas,Fits, and similar will not think Model 3 is low priced nor affordable.
And neither VW nor Toyota will consider Model 3 high volume.
At least not before 2025. If Red's predictions of millions being sold prove correct then high volume.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Take a look at this list:
2014 Year End U.S. Passenger Car Sales Rankings - Top 157 Best-Selling Cars In America - Every Car Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
Since this is for passenger cars, no pickup trucks, or SUVs are listed. Some cars may or may not be considered CUVs, but are shown for reasons outlined in the notes below the chart.
As I mentioned before, 22 of the top 25 passenger cars sold at least 100,000 units in the US. The #26 car was the Chevrolet Camaro, with 86,297 vehicles sold during 2014. Some of the cars the Camaro outsold were:
I would think that those cars qualify as 'mass market'. But the BMW 3-Series, which by virtue of its starting price does not qualify as 'mass market' for some here, sold 142,232 units and came in at #16 for 2014 US sales.
My point is that if the Fremont facility finishes 2017 with a 300,000 unit capacity... And 100,000 of that is reserved to be split between Model S and Model X production... That leaves 200,000 capacity to be used by Model ≡. If production only reaches 70%, that means 140,000 units built during 2018. If 40% is delivered to US Customers that makes for 56,000 units sold.
That amount would have been enough to take the #40 spot during 2014 (moving the Chrysler 300 down a notch). I believe those are conservative numbers. I am certain that Tesla Motors will be more aggressive with US sales from the outset. So that would be a range of 60% to 80% of 2017-2018 production going to the US. Or 84,000 to 112,000 happy customers on these shores. And even that is a low ball figure, from my perspective.
2014 Year End U.S. Passenger Car Sales Rankings - Top 157 Best-Selling Cars In America - Every Car Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
Since this is for passenger cars, no pickup trucks, or SUVs are listed. Some cars may or may not be considered CUVs, but are shown for reasons outlined in the notes below the chart.
As I mentioned before, 22 of the top 25 passenger cars sold at least 100,000 units in the US. The #26 car was the Chevrolet Camaro, with 86,297 vehicles sold during 2014. Some of the cars the Camaro outsold were:
#27 Dodge Dart
#33 KIA Forte
#37 Ford Fiesta
#38 Ford Taurus
#39 Honda Fit
#44 Dodge Avenger
#54 KIA Rio
#58 Volkswagen Golf
#33 KIA Forte
#37 Ford Fiesta
#38 Ford Taurus
#39 Honda Fit
#44 Dodge Avenger
#54 KIA Rio
#58 Volkswagen Golf
I would think that those cars qualify as 'mass market'. But the BMW 3-Series, which by virtue of its starting price does not qualify as 'mass market' for some here, sold 142,232 units and came in at #16 for 2014 US sales.
My point is that if the Fremont facility finishes 2017 with a 300,000 unit capacity... And 100,000 of that is reserved to be split between Model S and Model X production... That leaves 200,000 capacity to be used by Model ≡. If production only reaches 70%, that means 140,000 units built during 2018. If 40% is delivered to US Customers that makes for 56,000 units sold.
That amount would have been enough to take the #40 spot during 2014 (moving the Chrysler 300 down a notch). I believe those are conservative numbers. I am certain that Tesla Motors will be more aggressive with US sales from the outset. So that would be a range of 60% to 80% of 2017-2018 production going to the US. Or 84,000 to 112,000 happy customers on these shores. And even that is a low ball figure, from my perspective.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
RobStark
Well-Known Member
MartinAustin
Active Member
THIS.
The Model S competes with every other car right now. There was a survey on this forum a year or two ago that asked owners what car they had previously driven, and I think 3% of them said Honda Civic. (myself included) Many more were Prius owners as you can imagine, many were Audi & BMW owners, etc. etc.. The Model S, being the only product from Tesla right now, becomes the object of desire for anyone who wants a long-range, high performance BEV.
It's normal for a Prius owner to buy another Prius. It's normal for a Honda Civic owner to buy another Civic. Or perhaps, Elantra, Mazda 3, etc. etc..
The fact that, for some people, the Tesla Model S is so compelling that they will blow their previous budget out of the water and spend the money to get the Model S shows clearly that it not only competes with every other car on the market, but in some cases it can win.
Today's shareholder meeting graph that shows how it outsells all the current high-end sedans on the market... shouldn't be so surprising. That owners of much cheaper cars are moving to the Model S - should at least be thought-provoking.
Once the Model 3 comes out for $35,000 (with the Model X starting around $80,000), the way Tesla's product range competes with the rest of the market will bifurcate. Model S and X will compete with expensive cars only... Model 3 will compete with everything in its price range and below, including cheaper CUVs. Honda Civic owners et. al will, in all likelihood, no longer buy Model S... they'll buy Model 3.
I was glad to hear Elon make this unequivocal statement...so you guys could stop arguing about it. ;-)
It makes sense to me to have the Model 3 base be single motor and have a dual motor option.
Nomad
Member
Looks like I have to eat crow here. I was wrong about the Model 3 coming with dual motors by default.
Looks like I have to eat crow here. I was wrong about the Model 3 coming with dual motors by default.
Really no reason to do a dual motor on the entry level car. That choice would just make it difficult to justify a premium model 3. Now they will be like the BMW 3 series. Going from a basic car to a high performer. Except that Tesla will beat BMW in performance at every price point. The Tesla line will go from $35K to $135K, hitting every price point. A nice strategy.
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