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Model 3 for my 43rd birthday
- Thread starter nexsuperne101
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Kira
Member
This forum is so therapeutic. I'm a nurse, so I should know. 
I think I can now confess to having a countdown timer on my computer at work for this same purpose @nexsuperne101 Mine is slowly making its way down to my birthday on Sept 27th, 2018. 839 days to go here!
I think I can now confess to having a countdown timer on my computer at work for this same purpose @nexsuperne101 Mine is slowly making its way down to my birthday on Sept 27th, 2018. 839 days to go here!
pinski
Not Ludicrous
I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but I think you might end up disappointed. If you were in the US, I think you'd have a good shot, but since you're across the pond, that may be a little aggressive an expectation.
Is there any precedent for this reasoning with previous releases? I was wondering myself when international shipments may start going out on the M3 if they indeed start US deliveries Q4 2017.
It would seem reasonable to think he might get his car if he ordered within a day or two of reservations opening. Elon is expecting to build 100K cars in 2017 and an average of 125K/quarter in 2018. That would be over 400K by 8/8 -- as many as there are cars reserved about now.
I don't think many believe he'll hit that target, but even if he comes in more realistically at 25K in 2017, 50K in Q1, 75K in Q2, 100K in Q3 -- do you really think the first 250K cars built go to USA? That would basically be filling ALL preorders from the US before touching a single one in another country.
It would seem reasonable to think he might get his car if he ordered within a day or two of reservations opening. Elon is expecting to build 100K cars in 2017 and an average of 125K/quarter in 2018. That would be over 400K by 8/8 -- as many as there are cars reserved about now.
I don't think many believe he'll hit that target, but even if he comes in more realistically at 25K in 2017, 50K in Q1, 75K in Q2, 100K in Q3 -- do you really think the first 250K cars built go to USA? That would basically be filling ALL preorders from the US before touching a single one in another country.
@flamingoezz good comment.
Once initial US deliveries are done there should be many pipes out of the tank, the fattest of course will be remaining US deliveries but there will be several other thin ones drip feeding other regions of the world and that is what I expect will happen.
Once initial US deliveries are done there should be many pipes out of the tank, the fattest of course will be remaining US deliveries but there will be several other thin ones drip feeding other regions of the world and that is what I expect will happen.
The way it was phrased was that those closest to the factory would be the first to get their M3, but all the other countries would quickly and simultaneously follow with deliveries.
After all, there's not much point buying a Tesla if they give everyone in the USA their one first.
If push comes to shove and if it's not looking hopeful for my birthday, then I will be in a position to get a 2016 Model S on a CPO.
One way or another, I will have a Tesla for my present
After all, there's not much point buying a Tesla if they give everyone in the USA their one first.
If push comes to shove and if it's not looking hopeful for my birthday, then I will be in a position to get a 2016 Model S on a CPO.
One way or another, I will have a Tesla for my present
JeffK
Well-Known Member
You have to understand in the US right now there's a time constraint on a tax credit to Tesla buyers. The only way to maximize the benefit is to saturate US deliveries while it's still valid. Remaining excess can go to countries with similar time constraints first then the rest of the world.
US deliveries should be easily saturated within a few months at full production rate to fulfill US preorders and then the rest of the world.
pinski
Not Ludicrous
Anything is possible, of course, but given Tesla's track record and lack of experience at this level of mass production, I very highly doubt our friends overseas will be seeing their cars before Q4 2018. And those who see them Q4 2018 will be the earliest reservations who already own Teslas. The Model 3 has at least been designed to ease the conversion from LHD to RHD, so that should minimize much of the retooling effort (if any). Additionally, Elon has said that deliveries in the US would be focused to take full advantage of the federal tax credit. Depending on how that window falls, that could lessen the focus on overseas deliveries for a significant chunk of time.
I suppose I'm just dubious as to whether or not the Fremont factory will be running at as high a capacity quickly as some of you seem to think it will. For what it's worth, I hope you're right
.
Kira
Member
We shall see --- I ordered online on April 1st in the evening (it took me awhile to convince my husband....sigh) The birthday countdown is just another way to distract myself at this point
With lets say 300K preorders in the first 2 days (i think a generous estimate), and 65% of those being in the US. Even if they delivered every day 1 & 2 USA order before thinking of making cars in other countries, that would only be around 195K. Elon thinks they will do that by like end of February.
If Elon sticks by his timeline (not likely judging by past releases) or he starts distributing internationally before they fulfill a majority of US preorders, you have a shot. Didn't notice though that you're from UK. That might make the odds lower due to the manufacturing differences.
OK OK, now do me....I'm #350K or so overall -- USA, east coast, non-owner or employee, budget 50K. Any shot at Dec 2018?
If Elon sticks by his timeline (not likely judging by past releases) or he starts distributing internationally before they fulfill a majority of US preorders, you have a shot. Didn't notice though that you're from UK. That might make the odds lower due to the manufacturing differences.
OK OK, now do me....I'm #350K or so overall -- USA, east coast, non-owner or employee, budget 50K. Any shot at Dec 2018?
pinski
Not Ludicrous
Right now, Tesla is currently on track to exit the second quarter manufacturing about 2,000 cars per week. That's in line with their current goals and is a little over 100,000/yr. That's a very far cry from 500,000/yr. Elon said that July 1, 2017 is the deadline for internal and supplier parts, but also called it an impossible date, so I don't see them starting to build before Q4 2017. We all know there's going to be setbacks, manufacturing may start and stop if a problem is identified and needs corrected. Let's assume that their maximum production capacity for the first two quarters of production is 50% and the Model S and X still hold steady at 2,000 units per week as they are at the end of Q2 2016. Half capacity translates to 250,000/yr or roughly 5,000/wk, or 3,000 Model 3's per week. That means for Q4 2017 and Q1 2018, roughly 78,000 Model 3's will be built. Elon seems to think they can build 100,000-200,000 in 2017, but I just don't see that happening.
I think in Q2 2018 and Q3 2018, they'll have a good shot of getting to 75% capacity, or 375,000/yr, or about 7,500/wk, 5,500 of which will be Model 3 (holding the same 2,000/wk S+X). That would mean for Q2 and Q3 2018, they'd be able to manufacture roughly 143,000 Model 3's, bringing their total production of the Model 3 to about 221,000. At this point, entering Q4 2018, I think they'll have a good chance of hitting 100% capacity, 500,000 cars/yr, roughly 10,000/wk and 8,000 of those Model 3's. With that in mind, in Q4 2018, they could manufacture 104,000 Model 3's, bringing the overall total of Model 3's produced to about 325,000 Model 3's. If my completely made-up schedule holds, I think Q4 2018 may be a stretch for you
.If Elon's schedule holds, you have an extremely good chance of getting your car in 2018, maybe even Q3.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Is that the grant thing that's supposed to expire March 2018? That's cutting it a little close.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
If your suppliers (who are used to mass production) come through in the quantities desired and you've built a manufacturing line to handle 8000 cars per week, why would you be producing at 50% capacity?
Many efficient manufacturing lines have two speeds: full speed or stopped.
Elon's impossible deadline for "mass production capability" is July 1st... even if that's delayed by 3 entire months you'd still potentially have nearly 100,000 cars leave the factory by the end of 2017.
Looking at history, I don't think we should assume production will go smoothly. Yes, Elon has learned some lessons -- making manufacturing easier + having capability to make parts that vendors fail to get to him on time, but I think its a little optimistic to think that Tesla will be at 100% of its goal WHILE expanding its manufacturing 5x.
I would not be surprised if a single car is not built in October. I would not be surprised if they are not producing at the rate they expect by end of Q3 2018. Can Tesla improve on their previous launches -- I think so. I am hopeful that they can be near their expectations, but I'm not going into it with that mindset that 'they will'. Elon listed off reasons for delays before -- ranging from vendors not hitting goals to cargo containers being in the middle of a shoot out. Nobody can anticipate the next year and what will happen with hundreds of companies and hundreds of thousands of people involved in getting this car built. Let's just keep our fingers crossed.
I would not be surprised if a single car is not built in October. I would not be surprised if they are not producing at the rate they expect by end of Q3 2018. Can Tesla improve on their previous launches -- I think so. I am hopeful that they can be near their expectations, but I'm not going into it with that mindset that 'they will'. Elon listed off reasons for delays before -- ranging from vendors not hitting goals to cargo containers being in the middle of a shoot out. Nobody can anticipate the next year and what will happen with hundreds of companies and hundreds of thousands of people involved in getting this car built. Let's just keep our fingers crossed.
pinski
Not Ludicrous
Admittedly I'm not in manufacturing, but I think we both know it's more complicated than that. Suppliers could be an issue, staffing could be an issue, the employees could vote to unionize and become UAW. Maybe they have designs on multiple lines? Maybe the tooling is delayed on one of them? My comments weren't saying the line was running at 50%, but that production was 50% of overall estimated capacity at Freemont. If one supplier falls behind, that'll slow the line. If enough staff are not available for any reason, you may not be able to run three full shifts, which will limit production. Maybe they'll unionize and some or all will hold out? Who knows? There are many variables that will rear their ugly heads as production gets ramped up. I think expecting the lines to run at 100% right off the bat is very naive.
Genshi
Member
Depending on how that US tax rebate timing shakes out, it's a distinct possibility Tesla MIGHT actually deliver some cars overseas early on in order to avoid breaking that 200,000th car barrier until the first day of the next quarter. They could just store the cars, but depending on cash flow it's possible they'd sell overseas so they could get the sale on the books but not increment the tally of US cars sold.
Not saying it's terribly likely, but it is clear they'll likely be paying close attention to when that 200,000th car goes out, and delaying it until the early days of a new quarter. Whether they stockpile US cars for shipment on the first day of a new quarter or just count on the production line to function at the level they're building toward is up in the air.
If they're confident in their production line ramp to 500k/year speeds by the end of 2017, there's no reason to stockpile cars because they could (theoretically) deliver in the neighborhood of 100k cars/quarter even at the beginning of 2017. That would clear the whole (current) backlog in a year, offering the full rebate in or 50% of it for all US customers. And that's assuming that the large bulk of that 373k is US customers. It's possible there's a significant chunk of that going to China/Europe/Canada/et al.
Not saying it's terribly likely, but it is clear they'll likely be paying close attention to when that 200,000th car goes out, and delaying it until the early days of a new quarter. Whether they stockpile US cars for shipment on the first day of a new quarter or just count on the production line to function at the level they're building toward is up in the air.
If they're confident in their production line ramp to 500k/year speeds by the end of 2017, there's no reason to stockpile cars because they could (theoretically) deliver in the neighborhood of 100k cars/quarter even at the beginning of 2017. That would clear the whole (current) backlog in a year, offering the full rebate in or 50% of it for all US customers. And that's assuming that the large bulk of that 373k is US customers. It's possible there's a significant chunk of that going to China/Europe/Canada/et al.
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