Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I get your point that its not necessarily a lot of money. But the number of people configured no VIN; and VIN no Car would still be interesting:
1) It would have general indication of Teslas expectations for manufacturing and delivery. Should be a stable but slightly growing number. But, what if it wasnt? If the number went way up or way down, it might correlate with something interesting.
2) If production is going up, you are right the number of people in those status should be generally growing but not outrageously. What is the growth rate compared to expected production rate? If Tesla announces 5K per week but not a lot of people in the queue, that would be weird.
3) They are in a well documented financial crunch with net working capital below negative $2.3B. Every dollar counts until they make Model 3 goals for volume and profit. If these numbers balloon, it might indicate they are taping this source of funding. $25 million will soon be a material portion of unrestricted US cash.

I just think the chart would be interesting and would love to see how it has behaved over the last few months and going forward.


The recent deep delivery push back emails make this even more imperative. Is Tesla deliberately stacking up purchase deposits?
 
  • Informative
Reactions: TheDoktor
The recent deep delivery push back emails make this even more imperative. Is Tesla deliberately stacking up purchase deposits?

No... they aren't sending out additional invites either. $3.5k per person who has configured/stuck in limbo is nowhere close to 25 million.

They're most likely stockpiling to hit 200k deliveries in Q3. Assuming 5k/week (and this is Model 3 only), one quarter (~13 weeks) will equal 65k additional people receiving the full credit. If they hit 200k in late Q2, very few people will benefit. If they push it back just slightly, many will benefit.
 
Hey TMC community, I just got an email from my ISA. I configured on 4/13 and got an email last week saying sometime in June. Today I got an email saying June 13th to pick up my car! I'm in Atlanta. Red, aero, PUP. So, two months from config to delivery. My account still does not show a VIN, but I understand that ISA contact means more than VIN. Gonna go open a bottle of champagne. :)
 
Hey TMC community, I just got an email from my ISA. I configured on 4/13 and got an email last week saying sometime in June. Today I got an email saying June 13th to pick up my car! I'm in Atlanta. Red, aero, PUP. So, two months from config to delivery. My account still does not show a VIN, but I understand that ISA contact means more than VIN. Gonna go open a bottle of champagne. :)

Based on recent changes to their procedure, your VIN will show up on 6/6.
 
Wild; our extended family (4 families) have 8 reservations which we configured and delivered 5 to date. Brother waiting for AWD option and still none of our remaining have an invite for them. -- All 1st day in-store or pre-reveal Cali reservations.

Can't complain. love the drive :) RWD giving 3-6 weeks at the moment.
 
Has anyone tried estimating what percentage of Model 3 reservation holders participate in the spreadsheet? Asking for a friend.

Say, someone is listed at 171st in line for the VIN given his choices of color and wheels and the config date. Some of the people in front of him may have gotten the VIN and neglected to update the spreadsheet. And then there is another (larger? smaller?) group of people who configured ahead of him, but never entered their info into the spreadsheet to begin with. So, in the end, is 171 a realistic estimate of the priority, or just a meaningless number to occupy one's mind with while waiting?

https://sites.google.com/view/tesla...orts/waiting-for-vin/midnight-silver-metallic

I asked in a separate thread if any of the people who are listed as having configured on 3/22 or 3/23 are still really waiting for their VIN and did not hear from anyone. They must be busy driving.
 
I asked in a separate thread if any of the people who are listed as having configured on 3/22 or 3/23 are still really waiting for their VIN and did not hear from anyone. They must be busy driving.

I would be almost certain that those people just never updated their information. I tried to convince CJ to filter/archive/adjust old potentially stale data in those lists (i.e. if a certain threshold of people after them had moved along in the process and their data had not been recently refreshed), and understandably he was reluctant to do this. But yeah, there's going to start to accumulate old data at the top of those lists which we will simply have to ignore.
 
I would be almost certain that those people just never updated their information. I tried to convince CJ to filter/archive/adjust old potentially stale data in those lists (i.e. if a certain threshold of people after them had moved along in the process and their data had not been recently refreshed), and understandably he was reluctant to do this. But yeah, there's going to start to accumulate old data at the top of those lists which we will simply have to ignore.
Understood. My question is more this: can we make an educated assumption that unreported VINs and deliveries are roughly proportional to the unreported reservations? Has anyone compared the published sales number with the numbers reflected in the spreadsheet? Does the spreadsheet represent 10%, 50%, 90% of the reservation holders?
 
Understood. My question is more this: can we make an educated assumption that unreported VINs and deliveries are roughly proportional to the unreported reservations? Has anyone compared the published sales number with the numbers reflected in the spreadsheet? Does the spreadsheet represent 10%, 50%, 90% of the reservation holders?

Pretty sure this data is available right within the spreadsheet you are looking at (be it Troy's or CJ's -- each of them has its own thread (at least on M3OC) for meta-discussion related to the database itself). At any rate, the sample size is very small...probably 3% or less.
 
Has anyone tried estimating what percentage of Model 3 reservation holders participate in the spreadsheet?

You can see the sample rates in the table below. You can find this table in Delivery!L56 here. The monthly numbers (1,120, 1,780 etc) were calculated from the Model 3 market share chart Tesla showed during the shareholder meeting. They tweeted the same chart here. To convert that to monthly numbers, I found all the monthly numbers for BMW, Audi etc and recreated the same chart as a transparent chart and overlayed it on top of the original chart here. Of course, the total for January, February, and March is 8,180 which is the number Tesla released for Q1.

The second column shows deliveries buyers have reported. For example, 161 people are reporting a delivery this month. This includes scheduled deliveries that haven't happened yet.

0XiE8hv.png
 
Last edited:
So the queue position number is fairly meaningless.

I don't think it's meaningless. If you follow your position in the queue (I'm 126 in my queue for example) and you see 1-2 cars with your same configuration being assigned each day (check the Latest VIN tab), then you can kind of estimate the number of days until you get a VIN. The catch, as I've been saying, is that there is definitely some stale data in there. So in my case, I figure that between 50 and 80 of those are stale. So really I am only 40 (I just checked and I moved up a whole place today!) days away at this point! (Actually I feel that once we get to the last week of June and they can start the floodgates for July deliveries that it won't be 1-2/day but rather 10-15/day.
 
A question in this vein, can we expect newer reservation makers to use this spreadsheet? Certainly the initial reservation holders are highly engaged in the Tesla community and will be aware of that; however, I would imagine that as the car penetrates the market more deeply, newer reservation holders are less likely to be on these blogs, engage with an online spreadsheet. Thoughts?
 
  • Like
Reactions: MissyMcBee
No... they aren't sending out additional invites either. $3.5k per person who has configured/stuck in limbo is nowhere close to 25 million.

They're most likely stockpiling to hit 200k deliveries in Q3. Assuming 5k/week (and this is Model 3 only), one quarter (~13 weeks) will equal 65k additional people receiving the full credit. If they hit 200k in late Q2, very few people will benefit. If they push it back just slightly, many will benefit.

It would be considered a failure if they only did 65k in Q4....