Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[Zhelko Dimic]

ok look, I am all about constructive criticism, and admit I rarely come to this specific forum (or any non investor forum on TMC) and i was probably exaggerating about how many/few reasonable bulls there are out there (I know there are plenty of smart people here, and i came here to find them and have spoken with many), and maybe you dont like my posting style which is fine


but please qualify the above? Don't just make stuff up to discredit me.


Also, if you think the Tesla Bull cheerleaders are annoying, you should try and sift through some of the bear stuff. As a pro EV guy and left leaning individual on most issues, the conservative demographic that hates EV are BRUTAL to have to sift through/block


edit: Thanks for the follow recs, i will definitely do that (not sarcastic)

I've probably mischaracterized what I've seen. There was a certain shifting of weight that I noticed with you, like balancing on the ball, perhaps answering portion that were easier to attack while omitting ones that were not. Perhaps it was couple of answers that were lashing outs and made you look like a typical stocktwit bear. In this case, I am almost certainly guilty of recognizing part of behaviour from low-level shorts and placing you in that category too quickly. But there was something, or I wouldn't have said it.
I apologize though, morphing wasn't the right word (English is my third language).
I'll have to admit that this discussion is not important enough to me, so I won't try to sift though your posts to find proof and specific offending wording though
Finally, I said what I said that without any malice, Emphasis was on what I think is your confirmation bias.

And just so you understand that I try to stay balanced, I'll partially agree with you that I feel Musk is sometimes skating very close to being misleading. I may go even a bit further if I were not on this forum
But he's doing it out of (*selfish) altruism, so I'm ok with it.

*Selfish altruism - we're programmed to feel good when helping others, so even altruism is in a way selfish as it makes us feel good. Just ask my wife; she sells 'feel good' factor for millions of $ to people that want to protect environment and have no other way to use up money. She gets individual pledges literally in $millions. Plenty of those people in the world...

 

[ken830]

Is there a similar spreadsheet to track AWD/Performance invites?

 

[Troy]

@ken830,

You have 3 options:
1. Scroll down on the 'VIN Queue 1' tab.
2. Also, you can use filters. See this video. Then try it out on the All Entries tab column S (trim level): Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet
3. Here is a pre-saved filter. You can bookmark this link: Model 3 Invites, AWD and P

 

[sundaymorning]

2. Production has been slow. The green line here shows the total units produced. The rate dropped after 15th May. They made about 1,000 units per week from mid-May to mid-June.

In case you are wondering, didn't Elon say 500/day (3,500/week) during the shareholder meeting? Not exactly. He said the production line has demonstrated the capability. Here is a video that shows the exact phrase. That statement was technically correct. However, at that time, they were actually making only 144 units per day for the last 3 weeks.

Troy I am having a bit of a hard time understanding this, can you help explain to me how you extrapolated only 1k a week mid May thru mid June when your data below shows we had a higher reported deliveries in May/June than April? Does the chart below for 684 deliveries for USA include all SX3 or just Model 3? Thanks.

 

[sundaymorning]

In addition, I don't think the slow production is intentional. There are lots of people who configured more than 60 days ago and still haven't received VINs. That wasn't the plan.

Another question Troy. Allow me to lick your brains a bit.

“There are lots of people who configured more than 60 days ago and still haven't received VINs.”

When you say “lots” is it a majority or minority? Are they AWD customers or just long range?

“That wasn’t planned.”

Can you elaborate on this a bit so I can understand the situation a bit better? Thanks.

 

[Troy]

can you help explain to me how you extrapolated only 1k a week mid-May thru mid-June when your data below shows we had a higher reported deliveries in May/June than April?

There are two aspects to your question.
1. Sometimes deliveries can be higher than production because there is a delay between production and delivery. Imagine Tesla made lots of cars last month but no cars this month. In this scenario, we would see very low deliveries for the last month and very high for this month because the cars produced last month would be delivered this month.

Check out the production and delivery numbers for this quarter: Tesla Q4 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
They made 22,140 Model S&X (24,565 S/X/3 - 2,425 Model 3 = 22,140 Model S&X)
They delivered 28,320 Model S&X (15,200 MS + 13,120 MX)

In other words, they delivered 6,180 more Model S and X than they produced in Q4 2017. Therefore higher deliveries than production can happen.

2. In this instance, production in May is not actually lower than April despite the 1,000/week from mid-May thru mid-June. Between 1-15 May production was 2,700/week. Therefore total production in May is actually higher than April. You can see the monthly production numbers in the Production tab around cell S2 here. The reported deliveries are for the Model 3 only.

Another question Troy. Allow me to lick your brains a bit.
“There are lots of people who configured more than 60 days ago and still haven't received VINs.”
When you say “lots” is it a majority or minority? Are they AWD customers or just long range?

The red line here shows people who are waiting for a VIN. The sample rate changes between 7% and 11%. If we assume 10%, then it means currently there are 805*10= 8,050 people who are waiting for a VIN. Tesla needs to send out new invites before the red line drops close to zero.

“That wasn’t planned.”
Can you elaborate on this a bit so I can understand the situation a bit better? Thanks.

Production was slow from mid-May to mid-June. Some people think this was intentional. I don't think so. I don't think they would send out large batches of invites to 20K people and then slow down production intentionally and watch some of those people wait for 2 months or longer just to get a VIN when the Model 3 configurator was displaying delivery in 3-6 weeks.

 

[ponzu]

Alright, I have to ask. On the first page, there are links to at least two sets of reports: @Troy's, which you all know and love and @chojn1's, which for some reason I had been dialed in on until the last moment. But at the very least I assume they are driven by the same spreadsheet. Okay, there are several mirrors of the spreadsheet to shoulder the load, but it should be the same data, correct?

I was going to write a post on how I was still #160 in line for VIN on this report (@chojn1's) Tesla Model 3 Invites - Midnight Silver Metallic when the email came, and how this proves that the data behind the reports is not very accurate, and people with high queue numbers should not take them literally. Most of this has already been stated. I went to give that reports one final look to post good info, and noticed that I am still on it at #156. I clicked on the link to view/update my entry Model 3 Invites (as listed on the report) and confirmed that my entry had not been updated. I then clicked on the link from the first page of this thread Model 3 Invites #1 (Troy: There are a few identical files to avoid overcrowding) and verified that my entry has been updated, as I remember doing.

So, is it known that @chojn1's reports are running off a wrong/stale spreadsheet, or would he like to look into it, or is there a synching process that's broken somewhere, or what? The numbers on the report ARE moving, so the spreadsheet it runs against is not completely abandoned. But something just does not add up.

 

[RTPEV]

Alright, I have to ask. On the first page, there are links to at least two sets of reports: @Troy's, which you all know and love and @chojn1's, which for some reason I had been dialed in on until the last moment. But at the very least I assume they are driven by the same spreadsheet. Okay, there are several mirrors of the spreadsheet to shoulder the load, but it should be the same data, correct?

I was going to write a post on how I was still #160 in line for VIN on this report (@chojn1's) Tesla Model 3 Invites - Midnight Silver Metallic when the email came, and how this proves that the data behind the reports is not very accurate, and people with high queue numbers should not take them literally. Most of this has already been stated. I went to give that reports one final look to post good info, and noticed that I am still on it at #156. I clicked on the link to view/update my entry Model 3 Invites (as listed on the report) and confirmed that my entry had not been updated. I then clicked on the link from the first page of this thread Model 3 Invites #1 (Troy: There are a few identical files to avoid overcrowding) and verified that my entry has been updated, as I remember doing.

So, is it known that @chojn1's reports are running off a wrong/stale spreadsheet, or would he like to look into it, or is there a synching process that's broken somewhere, or what? The numbers on the report ARE moving, so the spreadsheet it runs against is not completely abandoned. But something just does not add up.

No, CJ's reports are running off a fork of the data, as are Troy's spreadsheets. They are not stale. I could make the same argument that Troy's spreadsheets are stale (because I, for instance, updated CJ's database, and not Troy's when I updated my info for VIN & delivery date). Yes, this does mean that both sets of data have to be taken with a grain of salt, and like you, I noticed that the queues for VIN (for certain configs anyway) are incredibly long because there is a lot of data out there that almost certainly is no longer valid. I have tried to suggest to CJ an approach to "cancel out" the suspect data (even if done on the side without actually deleting the suspect entries) but he wasn't interested. Troy at least is making an attempt to account for old data.

Anyway, you can read the entire drama about the split of the databases elsewhere. But the long story short (apologies if I don't get it perfectly correct) is that neither of them started the original database, but CJ took over maintenance of it, and Troy then stepped in to do his spreadsheet and statistical magic. But then something happened between the two of them that caused Troy to lock CJ out of the spreadsheet. Basically at this point the database forked. Some people update only Troy's, some people update only CJ's, some people update both, and some apparently decided to just go away and not update either.

I personally am in the camp of updating only CJ's. The reason is that I have seen's Troy's "downvote tirade" here on TMC and personally witnessed some very strange behavior on Troy's part when I complimented CJ on an enhancement he made once and Troy kept arguing with me that a new view he added to his spreadsheet was better than what CJ had done (in my opinion it wasn't even close). Keep in mind I wasn't complaining in the least about Troy's work, but I felt that I was being attacked because I liked something that someone else (whom Troy considered a "rival") did. To me, this led me to put more credence into CJ's side of how the split went down as I can see how Troy would have become upset and highly protective of the data, even though it can't really be said that it was "his".

So I may be in the minority. I know Troy has quite a few people under his spell because of the magical ability of his estimator to predict invite dates--which in my opinion is a simple "trick" similar to how any download or copy progress bar will always be amazingly accurate when it says there is 1 second left). So it may be that more people are updating Troy's data. But in my opinion, CJ is a more reasonable custodian of the data and more willing to be open to sharing it, vs. keeping it locked up (or under threat of locking it up), and therefore I won't update Troy's data because I don't consider it legitimate any more. (Plus, I think CJ's site is faster and provides better information and is not constantly changing every time you go look at it, so you have to hunt for the data you saw yesterday).

 

[Troy]

Hi, @ponzu. The two projects are not connected in any way. There is no synch process. There are two different Google forms. On top of the spreadsheet, it shows my name. Therefore there shouldn't be any confusion. To edit your data, click on the Edit link next to your username.

 

[ponzu]

Some people update only Troy's, some people update only CJ's, some people update both, and some apparently decided to just go away and not update either.

Oh boy. Certainly didn't mean to stir up the controversy, but thank you for taking the time to both clarify the data setup and the history behind it. I don't mind updating CJ's spreadsheet now that I know what's up.

And now I can finish that post I was going to write for the still waiting.

I was ranked #160 on the VIN wait report for my color and wheels when I got the VIN. As more people get theirs and fewer than 100% will update the spreadsheet, the numbers will get higher and less meaningful. Take the progress of the queue as a hopeful, if relative, measure of your own march toward the coveted VIN. Maybe start posting your final wait position with the rest of the info you share to give others a perspective.

 

[ponzu]

Hi, @ponzu. The two projects are not connected in any way. There is no synch process. There are two different Google forms. On top of the spreadsheet, it shows my name. Therefore there shouldn't be any confusion. To edit your data, click on the Edit link next to your username.

Respectfully (and with many thanks for your work), I entered my data once, but it found its way into both sets of reports. So the forking the previous poster described must have occurred after I entered my data in April 2018. Is that not accurate? I am now aware of the need (or the option) to update my data in both places for the benefit of those who will come after me.

 

[Troy]

@RTPEV,
If you want to download the data for your own analysis, you can open the Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet and then on the top menu select File > Download as > Excel. I'm not sure if the other version offers this option but in my version, this feature has always been available and it was never disabled.

@ponzu, the split happened on 2nd May 2018.

 

[RTPEV]

Oh boy. Certainly didn't mean to stir up the controversy, but thank you for taking the time to both clarify the data setup and the history behind it. I don't mind updating CJ's spreadsheet now that I know what's up.

And now I can finish that post I was going to write for the still waiting.

I was ranked #160 on the VIN wait report for my color and wheels when I got the VIN. As more people get theirs and fewer than 100% will update the spreadsheet, the numbers will get higher and less meaningful. Take the progress of the queue as a hopeful, if relative, measure of your own march toward the coveted VIN. Maybe start posting your final wait position with the rest of the info you share to give others a perspective.

Agreed on the decreasing relevance of those numbers. It's a very useful metric, but getting less useful every day.

FWIW, I was #123 on the queue for Blue/Aero at the point I got my VIN.

 

[SMAlset]

@chojn1, just got our invite today, but not on Google to make changes. Can you update for me? BTW our delivery estimate dates with the latest change a week or so ago are now: 1st--(March-May) although ready to configure now with 3-6 weeks to delivery; Standard--Early 2019; AWD--Late 2018.

Haven't made decision yet but thinking we may defer to the AWD. Hoping will have more info on that version soon. We'll talk about it tonight.

For everyone waiting, glad to see invites going out again!

@SMAlset,
Congrats on the invite.
Your entry is updated.
You lucky ^$#%$#^%$#!

@chojn1 Was able to order our AWD Model 3 today, came to update my record but don't see my entry anywhere to update it?! Saw it back on 2/14 when you updated it. Not on google. Is the entry lost now?

 

[glhs272]

Model 3 AWD ordered last night.

 

[Off Shore]

Model 3P ordered this afternoon.

 

[Nvbob]

Model 3 AWD LR ordered yesterday evening.

 

[Troy]

On Reddit people are reporting that the configurator is now open to everybody from USA and Canada. There is a thread about it here.

Edit: This appears to be correct because I'm getting lots of entries in the invites spreadsheet. It will take 30-60 minutes until the sheets update.

Don't wait. Configure now. This will have a big effect on deliveries. After you configure, remember to enter your data here.

 

[Zaxxon]

My second reservation, placed last month, is now open, so that appears correct.

 

[Mrr82]

On Reddit people are reporting that the configurator is now open to everybody from USA and Canada. There is a thread about it here.

Edit: This appears to be correct because I'm getting lots of entries in the invites spreadsheet. It will take 30-60 minutes until the sheets update.

Don't wait. Configure now. This will have a big effect on deliveries. After you configure, remember to enter your data here.

I don’t get it. I’ve read that but I can’t do it. I reserved on day 3. Do I need to change something, my preference is set on AWD