Model 3 Launch Day Options & Prices based on latest info 3/24/17

[farzyness]

Going to give a stab at figuring out what options/prices will be for Model 3 once the configurator opens. These assumptions are based on the latest tweet storm Elon just put us thru as of 3/24. Specifically taking into account these primary points:

- The maximum battery capacity for the Model 3 will be 75 kwh
- The Model 3 will be a less advanced, less "techy", less premium car than the S
- At launch, Tesla will be looking to optimize ramp-up by simplifying the options people are able to purchase as much as possible (i.e. no P model, no dual motors, etc.)

Based on these, this is the chart that I can come up with:

Discuss!

 

[182RG]

I might be inclined to remove 'Sound System', and maybe even 'Seat/Trim' upgrades. Wheels and paint are easy from a Supply Chain and ease of manufacturing perspective.

My guess is they are starting to 'Osborne' the Model S, (and with the stupid speculation around a Model Y), probably the Model X as well. I'll bet order demand is starting to taper off on both the S and X, and they are out of levers to pull to increase it, as they get closer to the 3.

I applaud this move.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'll take a base model with EAP/FSD/glass roof please. I never wanted the P or D, I was worried that I have to wait till H2 '18 but Elon's tweets this morning is looking good.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

+$10k for the 75 is too much unless there's significant extra power on the 75.

 

[dndcruz]

+$10k for the 75 is too much unless there's significant extra power on the 75.

Maybe 6-7 k upgrade is more reasonable , will there be 2 or 3 battery sizes ?

 

[Electricfan]

I was hoping for a car with good features for 35K - like TACC and emergency braking. I'm very interested to see what they offer. If they truly want it to be a car for the masses, they can't make it cost 45K to get a decent car. If they do give it some advanced features for a low price, they'll have the demand they want. If they get the demand and hence volume up, they can make money on it, at least that's how I hope it goes.

 

[mikevbf]

I would hope some kind of cold weather package with seat heaters and such would be available from the start. We do not all live in warm climates.

Less essential for most, but really nice would be air suspension. If air suspension is not available right away, maybe it could be introduced around the same time as AWD.

I remember Elon saying after the Model X launch that he wished he had not offered all the bells and whistles from the start, but instead had introduced them slowly after all the core features were proven in the manufacturing process. My guess is this is the approach he will take with the Model 3.

 

[sandpiper]

...
My guess is they are starting to 'Osborne' the Model S, (and with the stupid speculation around a Model Y), probably the Model X as well. I'll bet order demand is starting to taper off on both the S and X, and they are out of levers to pull to increase it, as they get closer to the 3.

I applaud this move.

I agree. I'll be honest... I'm one of those sitting on the fence. I'm ready to pull the trigger on a 100D, but I won't do it if there's a tech upgrade in the offing. And so I want to see what's happening with 3 before I make a decision.

And I'm sure I'm not the only one who's looking and this before making a decision.

 

[mtndrew1]

I'm in for:

55 kWh
Premium paint (silver)
Premium trim (white vegan seats please!)
EAP
Sound (which I think will be more like $1,500 to match other automakers)

$46k. Bring it!

 

[Sonny Daze]

I might be inclined to remove 'Sound System', and maybe even 'Seat/Trim' upgrades. Wheels and paint are easy from a Supply Chain and ease of manufacturing perspective.

I would agree there may be no seat/trim upgrade and would also question if there will be EAP with only the center screen. May be full autonomy or nothing.

 

[ecarfan]

I would agree there may be no seat/trim upgrade and would also question if there will be EAP with only the center screen. May be full autonomy or nothing.

I am as certain as I can be -- given that I have no inside info and don't work for Tesla -- that the 3 will have an EAP option. I see no compelling case for arguing that you need a display directly in front of you for EAP to work. Every 3 will be built with full AutoPilot hardware. At the Model 3 launch last year Elon stated every Model 3 will be Autopilot capable.

I also think the 3 will come standard with "textile" type seats (similar to the S/X) and will have optional leather seats available in more than one color. Basically every high volume production car currently made has that option.

For course every production car made has an instrument display directly in front of the driver. But Elon has made clear that the 3 will not have such a display.

 

[Sonny Daze]

I am as certain as I can be -- given that I have no inside info and don't work for Tesla -- that the 3 will have an EAP option. I see no compelling case for arguing that you need a display directly in front of you for EAP to work. Every 3 will be built with full AutoPilot hardware. At the Model 3 launch last year Elon stated every Model 3 will be Autopilot capable.

When he made that statement there was no Enhanced Autopilot and Full Self Driving distinction. They now call it Full Self Driving Hardware and I don't even know if it says Autopilot anywhere anymore. Checking a center screen is fine now and again, but constantly watching to see what cars are detected, or if is following the lines or the car ahead, or if it is available or not, as well as warnings seems a little too much in my opinion, which is all this is, obviously.

 

[ikjadoon]

View attachment 219616

What is up with those $3000 wheels? $900 per wheel? Even BMW doesn't charge that much on their 3-series. No way it's $3000 (the price of full self-driving) to upgrade the wheels.

 

[strykeroz]

Was air suspension excluded in the statement as well?

 

[Sonny Daze]

Was air suspension excluded in the statement as well?

Not specifically, but it looks like they are going to spend as little as possible to build this car. I wouldn't hold your breath.

 

[Grendal]

I don't see anything too outrageous. Nice chart. It certainly gives us all something to speculate on while we're waiting for our Model 3.

 

[Chopr147]

Nice chart. Gives me something to think about.
I am torn right now but have time to think it through. I thought of delaying the 3 but may buy earlier than I need to for the tax credits. I'm talking $10k with the NY credit. And what? Let my daughter drive it to school? Heck no! I'll garage it if I have to