Tesla could lock range on the battery and then unlock it for a fee post sale. There are many ways to sell the car for $54999.
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Model 3 LR not currently available to order (USA) [posted 08.12.2022 --Its back! 05.02.2023]
- Thread starter michael805
- Start date
If one ordered M3 RWD is it easy to switch to LR . I want to see the option if one wants to switch from RWD to LR if somehow 7500 rebate can be applied to LR but not to RWD.
Also how easy to delay the delivery if delivery is scheduled in Nov or Dec 22.
If RWD somehow do get the rebate then the delivery has to be in 23 not 22 for sure.
Also how easy to delay the delivery if delivery is scheduled in Nov or Dec 22.
If RWD somehow do get the rebate then the delivery has to be in 23 not 22 for sure.
At what stage one can refuse the delivery before its too late and transaction has to be completed.
Reducing the price of the M3LR below $55K is as easy as it was to raise it above $55K in the first place. The margin on that car is pretty substantial. I think the real core difficulty with making a tax credit compliant car is the battery material and construction criteria. I'm not even sure if the credit can be cut in half if one of the criteria is met but the other is not. It is just not possible to reformulate the battery chemistry in 5 months. So I think this seems like Tesla taking advantage of the backorder to put a break in the process to update the M3. I have a M3 RWD on order... I'm hoping they open up 2023 ordering before my car gets delivered since I'm likely going to want to change to the 2023.
I think since MY production is increasing at the Austin factory they didn't have the same need to closer ordering for the MY.
I think since MY production is increasing at the Austin factory they didn't have the same need to closer ordering for the MY.
Will they allow you to change from RWD to LR if 2023 ordering opens before you get your RWD.
donʻt the battery requirements take effect in 2024? car needs to be manufactured in NA, but i think they have a year to get the battery up to snuff...
in 2024 the LFP M3 RWD might not qualify, but i think it will in 2023...
but then again, who knows? i donʻt think anyone in congress knows yet...
in 2024 the LFP M3 RWD might not qualify, but i think it will in 2023...
but then again, who knows? i donʻt think anyone in congress knows yet...
I wrote a detailed post on Reddit explaining my theory, but here's a short version.
Tesla runs into an issue if the M3 LR gets the $7500 credit and the RWD does not as the prices would be near identical after the credit. It does not make sense for them not to take full advantage of the tax credit for both vehicles, which they can easily do with a small price change and battery swap.
To solve for this, they need to sell through their existing CATL LFP packs in the RWD. To do this, simply stop taking LR orders so force people to go with the expensive Performance model or the RWD version (Most will choose the RWD over the P).
Once they sell through the RWD LFP Packs, they open the LR back up under $55k bringing the consumers price down to $47500 but allowing Tesla to keep their incredible margins. Next, they change the M3 RWD variant to a smaller 2170 pack to qualify as well and keep the price at $47000 but the consumer pays $39500.
This puts the effective price for both vehicles back in line with their 2021 prices but Tesla's profits stay strong, even as material and commodity prices continue to trend down.
The battery specifications go into effect in 2023, the only part that goes into effect in 2024 is if the materials are sourced from a "Country of concern", which if they are, completely disqualifies the vehicle.
They shut down Canada orders of LR for the same reason, they need to sell through all the LFP Packs. It wouldn't make sense for them to keep the LR open.
Tesla runs into an issue if the M3 LR gets the $7500 credit and the RWD does not as the prices would be near identical after the credit. It does not make sense for them not to take full advantage of the tax credit for both vehicles, which they can easily do with a small price change and battery swap.
To solve for this, they need to sell through their existing CATL LFP packs in the RWD. To do this, simply stop taking LR orders so force people to go with the expensive Performance model or the RWD version (Most will choose the RWD over the P).
Once they sell through the RWD LFP Packs, they open the LR back up under $55k bringing the consumers price down to $47500 but allowing Tesla to keep their incredible margins. Next, they change the M3 RWD variant to a smaller 2170 pack to qualify as well and keep the price at $47000 but the consumer pays $39500.
This puts the effective price for both vehicles back in line with their 2021 prices but Tesla's profits stay strong, even as material and commodity prices continue to trend down.
The battery specifications go into effect in 2023, the only part that goes into effect in 2024 is if the materials are sourced from a "Country of concern", which if they are, completely disqualifies the vehicle.
They shut down Canada orders of LR for the same reason, they need to sell through all the LFP Packs. It wouldn't make sense for them to keep the LR open.
Evpowerdan
Member
Wow, that’s some elabrate speculation. My simple version is, Tesla smart people knew what was in the IRA bill for EV’s, so they are waiting for clarity on the mess of super vagueness in the bill. The details of the bill can be changed before it’s signed by the president.
Other MFG’s are scrambling with the new bill and Europe MFG’s noted its in violation of the as it reduces ev adoption by limiting which vehicles and mfgs are eligible. Then others are stating the bill is not inline with the World Trade Organization rules that the USA currently has in place with other countries.
Maybe Tesla working on a solution for every model 3 (besides the P) to qualify, thus keeping customers happy while getting the rebate.
This is most likely the reason. There are only so many 2170 cells to be had and Berlin and Austin are starting to use a significant amount of them. Tesla originally planned for these plants to use the 4680 cell, but the ramp up is taking longer than anticipated. This is why Texas has started to use 2170 packs from Nevada for Texas MYLR. If I were Tesla, I would also prioritize MY over M3 due to higher profit margin and longer lead times.
No the battery requirements start in 2023, and start ramping up, by 10% if I recall correctly, in 2024.
No he can not. He signs or he vetos. Both House and Senate passed the bill. There’s no more changing.
2024 has the no battery minerals from “foreign entities of concern” which basically wipes out the tax credit for every single EV. The percentage is the least of the concerns.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Simple profit maximization during times of constrained resources. The 3LR is likely Tesla’s least profitable vehicle. Flip a switch on the website and all of a sudden you can sell the same car for thousands more minus the cost of putting the red underline badge on the trunk.
I think Tesla is far less concerned about the US tax credit than people on here want them to be. They’ve proven for some time now that they’re doing just fine without it. So long as demand remains where it is they have little incentive to water down their product/profit to meet some arbitrary eligibility threshold.
I think Tesla is far less concerned about the US tax credit than people on here want them to be. They’ve proven for some time now that they’re doing just fine without it. So long as demand remains where it is they have little incentive to water down their product/profit to meet some arbitrary eligibility threshold.
Congress could, in theory, change the bill by passing new versions of it through both the House and Senate again, and send the new bill to Biden. The new bill could even have language that says that if signed, it supercedes the old. But I don't think there's a way Congress can "un pass" a bill, so if Biden wants to sign the old bill and not the new one, that's out of Congress' hands. The only way Congress could take back the original bill over Biden's wishes would be to pass a new one rescinding the old one with veto-proof majorities in both houses.
If that theory is true, then that suggests that the motors for the P model aren't really performance binned, and all of them actually meet the performance requirements if not for the software power control.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Why? Anything that doesn’t meet the performance model requirements will end up in a LR Y, again for a substantial premium vs. a LR 3.
idk if the LR is the least profitable, but i do agree that Tesla is probably the least concerned about the tax credit of all the manufacturers. theyʻve raised prices in the last year by $10k and still have super long wait times...they donʻt need the tax credit right now to get ppl to buy their cars. in 5 years? maybe. but not right now...
Starting 1/23 If one get a delivery of M3 RWD will that gets a $7500 rebate or not ?
If one orders today the RWD expected delivery date is Nov - Jan 23 .
I am sure everyone wants to get there in January rather in Nov or Dec .
Nobody knows at this point. But I think it will be a no because the battery is from China.
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