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Model 3 official test drives coming this year.

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Keith909man, Jun 15, 2017.

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  1. Keith909man

    Keith909man Member

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    IMG_4328.jpg Tesla is now pushing out notifications on upcoming test drives late this year on the Model 3! Honestly didn't think that would be an option any time soon.
     
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  2. 03DSG

    03DSG Member

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    More anti-sell hard at work. As well I can't see it on either the US or CDN Model 3 page.
     
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  3. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    Is it anti-sell? Or are they looking to damp expectations that regular people will actually see cars in 2017?

    This goes a long way to reinforce my "gut feeling" schedule for production ramp up, that I'm copying from another thread.

    July: NADA, except some hand built RCs as they have now. Tesla may claim that they're off of the line, but that's a bit fuzzy. These cars will be a mix of hand & machine assembled, using some production components and sub-assemblies and some prototype parts.
    August: Same as July, but a higher proportion of assy and parts from production processes.
    September: 100 - the first cars completed almost entirely on the actual production line, with all going to key employees
    Month of October: 500 - employees
    Month of November: 1000 - employees
    Month of December: 2000 - employees and California
    Month of January: 5000 - California
    Month of February: 10000 - Start of general release
    By June 2018, you'll see production of about 5,000 per week.
     
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  4. jsrawa

    jsrawa Member

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    This would be bad news for Tesla. The 3 is make or break and this would most certainly break.
     
  5. Thomas Edison

    Thomas Edison Member

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    I don't really see it as antiselling. It just means they want to fill customer orders before they pump out another 1000-2000 cars that will be not for sale.



    When I went into the Tesla store 4 months ago they said they were expecting test drive cars before Christmas. Not that what a Tesla store employee says really means much. Apprears to be legit in this case.
     
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  6. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    #6 sandpiper, Jun 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2017
    I don't think it would break the company. I think the market has already built in an expectation that the car will be late. Certainly Tesla doesn't have a track record of meeting any of their deadlines, so I don't know why anybody who follows the company would expect otherwise.

    EM and crew had set a July deadline for production as milestone for the project team. And they clung to that as a means to not let-up the pressure. But now, as July rolls around, they need to switch to managing customer expectations. If they're telling early reservation holders that they can have a "test drive" late 2017, what does that imply for when they'll actually get a car? I'm not hearing a 2017 delivery in that statement.

    What I've predicted is that the first real deliveries (i.e. non-employees) would be in Feb 2018. Given that a Model S used to have a 3 month lag from order to delivery, a Nov/Dec test drive and a Feb delivery sounds pretty much on spot.
     
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  7. 206er

    206er Member

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    it's really tough to say what this means given their stated West -> East delivery plan - perhaps trying to curb expectations for East Coast and International buyers, and/or those who have not yet placed an order?

    I think that not being able to have a decent number of base $35k Model 3 West Coast deliveries on the books before the end of 2017 would be a back look for Tesla. But I'm a 3/31/16 early morning reservation holder in Seattle who expects my car before the end of 2017, so of course I think that!
     
  8. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    I sincerely hope I'm wrong and that you get it! :)
     
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  9. jgillispie

    jgillispie Member

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    It will be interesting to see if this means the M3 AWDs arrive around the same time the first MS AWD leases start coming back. They could try pushing more reservation holders up to CPOs.
     
  10. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    #10 sandpiper, Jun 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2017
    Edit: Sorry, I missed the bit about the AWD 3s in December.

    No, there's no chance. The AWDs will be summer 2018 at the earliest. I could see them trying to push a bunch of the reservation holders who want/need AWD up to an early P85D CPO. I've got one of the first P85Ds off of the line, and I'll be lease returning it in December.

    It's an awfully nice car and is wonderful to drive in the winter! And it'll be a good while before you get a 3 that performs like this thing does.
     
  11. 206er

    206er Member

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    How would you rate your leasing experience with Tesla? I see a lot of naysayers on this site who are quite down on Tesla leasing, but that's because they're likely comparing it to ICE leasing which has largely been a dishonest ploy by manufacturers to begin with.
     
  12. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    This just doesn't fit with their capital expense at all. Just 3 weeks ago they signed off on the $216M tooling purchase to make the batteries for the M3. Why buy the tools now if mass production isn't until Dec/Jan, 6-7 months from now? I'm certainly not ruling out any unforeseen delays that Tesla doesn't know at this moment. But for Tesla to make the purchase on the tooling, they must have some confidence that they will need the capacity very soon.
     
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  13. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    I had no complaints; the process was straightforward and open. They were a little conservative on the residual, but I was okay with that. If, come end of lease, the car is worth more the buy out value, I can just buy it out and either trade or sell it to recover the difference.
     
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  14. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    IIRC Tesla started delivering MX to customers before having them widely available for test drives. My interpretation is that by late 2017 Tesla will have enough M3 coming that they can spare some for test drives.
     
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  15. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    Selling a significant number of Model 3's at less than cost will probably 'break' Tesla Motors. It is likely that when Model 3 production ramps up, MS/X sales will decline, which could create a double whammy of losses at time when money is rushing out the door for factories, AV, inventory parts, tooling, Superchargers, etc. Ramping up is something that needs to happen when profitability is guaranteed for the M3 program.
     
  16. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    I don't know the terms for the tooling, but if they're buying it now, it'll take a few months to deliver. And then they need to install, commission and do the part production approvals. It seems to be pretty much in-line with a serious ramp-up near the beginning of 2018.
     
  17. N5329K

    N5329K Member

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    No sign of this on my Tesla page yet, but it's really good news. The ingress/egress evolution, cockpit checkout and test drive are mandatory items for me.
    Robin
     
  18. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    I disagree, I think ~3 month (not 6month) is typical for industrial machines delivery/installation time. The hundreds of "alien dreadnought" robots at Fremont factory had something like 15-20 wk installation schedule. I expect the battery tooling order to start getting filled in ~2 month time (end of July), and ramp up to completion in another 2 months (end of Sep), so by beginning of Q4 Oct I think Tesla will crank out a lot of cars.
     
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  19. pikachu

    pikachu Member

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    This. I don't think cars not being available for test drives is a sign that they wont be delivered until then. There are probably a lot of people on the list willing to order the car without a test drive and one can always test drive the S to get a general feel of how the car handles.
     
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  20. Trips

    Trips Member

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    If they are building cars at a rapid pace in November/December it might be better to hold some back. They do not want to hit 200,000 sales at the end of a quarter. If they have cars sitting around they might as well get people back into the store and give them a chance to tryout their future purchase.
     

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