Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[bschmer]

I will beat you I'm at 63 i think I can get to atleast 68 days

Any VIN date that's beyond your original stated estimate is just wrong IMO. I wonder what kind of pressure it would take to change the "You'll get your car when you get it" attitude? Will Elon's bonus bubble need to burst before they stop focusing on fitting as many deliveries as possible into this quarter? The reality is that if they just took the hit one quarter and then delivered cars as they were ordered, they'd likely deliver the same number of cars overall, even with local delivery optimizations.

I went back through the spreadsheet and non-USA orders for 1Q20 are lower than 4Q19 when you look at the pro-rated numbers:
Quarter -- Orders -- Non-USA -- Percent Non-USA Orders
1Q20* -- 676 -- 122 -- 18.0
4Q19 -- 1161 -- 147 -- 12.7
3Q19 -- 553 -- 91 -- 16.5
2Q19 -- 677 -- 159 -- 23.5
1Q19 -- 272 -- 62 -- 22.9
* Numbers doubled to reflect being only halfway through the quarter.

These numbers seem to suggest that we're suffering more from what I'll call the "Tax credit hangover" than overseas orders. Delivery times will more likely normalize with additional lag when new models start shipping.

So long term, maybe they don't need to change the attitude, although it would be nice if they did try to make amends for folks that waited longer than originally 'promised'....

 

[bschmer]

The end is near!!! I finally see my VIN in my source code... It only took 67 days!!!!

What are we going to do with our lives now that we don't have to constantly check for our VINs?!?!?!?

 

[Imaginathan]

2020 Model 3 SR+ MSM / Black 19" ordered 12/20
Received the text the other day as well indicating it will built within 2 weeks, looks like its a SoCal fulfillment. Everyday I get in my beat up 03 4runner and I ask her please last me just another few weeks.

We’re cramming in the ‘06 Corolla, I feel ya!

 

[Imaginathan]

lol I am at 57 hopefully i am not get to 60 lol

72 here lol

 

[bschmer]

What are we going to do with our lives now that we don't have to constantly check for our VINs?!?!?!?

Just scheduled my delivery. 3/5/20, exactly 6 weeks from the text that said "Delivery in 1-6 weeks" so grand total of 61 days from order to delivery if delivery stands as scheduled.

 

[jmatero]

Will be interesting to see how Rivian and Lucid handle order tracking next year. I ordered a Ford almost 10 years ago and they had it nailed so I’m sure Mach-E will

Just scheduled my delivery. 3/5/20, exactly 6 weeks from the text that said "Delivery in 1-6 weeks" so grand total of 61 days from order to delivery if delivery stands as scheduled.

Glad you have a date! Congrats! In the auto world, 8-12 weeks is a normal wait time for custom order cars so you're around the 8.5 week mark. Don't remember what they quoted you at order time. Until they perfect the system, they should just say:

"Current average delivery time is X-X weeks. We're experiencing a high volume of orders, so your delivery time may take longer. Check your account online or speak with your SA for updates on your order status"

Things will improve next year when Germany is building for Europe and China is running at capacity.

 

[ofcorona]

I am sure Tesla logistics team has this down to the point in cost / delivery times.
It just makes more sense to make the quotas to start with east to west with batch productions. So If Tesla is already making a spec, I would think they will fulfill all spec orders starting East to West.

 

[gargantila]

Just scheduled my delivery. 3/5/20, exactly 6 weeks from the text that said "Delivery in 1-6 weeks" so grand total of 61 days from order to delivery if delivery stands as scheduled.

Congratulations!!! I just did the same! Mine is scheduled for Thursday

No more VIN checks but soon I'm guessing we'll be checking the Tesla app multiple times a day to see how things are going with the car

Is it Thursday already?!?!?

 

[boink717]

Earlier there was some debate on how cars are allocated for around the world shipping during the quarter. I recently listened to an interview with Elon on the podcast 3rd Row Tesla where this topic is covered. The entire interview is long, but mostly interesting. The bit about shipping cars is towards the end, so if you want to skip ahead go to 3:06:45:

Basically, he states the logistics of shipping all their cars from one plant created these quarterly cycles where they'd spend the first 6 weeks building cars for Europe/Asia, the next 3 weeks for the east coast then the last 3 weeks of the quarter building for the west coast. I know this was mentioned by others here, but hearing it directly from Elon should clarify some of the debate on this.

Congrats to all those getting their cars!

 

[ofcorona]

Earlier there was some debate on how cars are allocated for around the world shipping during the quarter. I recently listened to an interview with Elon on the podcast 3rd Row Tesla where this topic is covered. The entire interview is long, but mostly interesting. The bit about shipping cars is towards the end, so if you want to skip ahead go to 3:06:45:

Basically, he states the logistics of shipping all their cars from one plant created these quarterly cycles where they'd spend the first 6 weeks building cars for Europe/Asia, the next 3 weeks for the east coast then the last 3 weeks of the quarter building for the west coast. I know this was mentioned by others here, but hearing it directly from Elon should clarify some of the debate on this.

Congrats to all those getting their cars!

Thanks for the video!
Will be watching it after work!

 

[bschmer]

Congratulations!!! I just did the same! Mine is scheduled for Thursday

No more VIN checks but soon I'm guessing we'll be checking the Tesla app multiple times a day to see how things are going with the car

Is it Thursday already?!?!?

Wow, that's a great VIN to delivery time! Congrats!

 

[bschmer]

Will be interesting to see how Rivian and Lucid handle order tracking next year. I ordered a Ford almost 10 years ago and they had it nailed so I’m sure Mach-E will


Glad you have a date! Congrats! In the auto world, 8-12 weeks is a normal wait time for custom order cars so you're around the 8.5 week mark. Don't remember what they quoted you at order time. Until they perfect the system, they should just say:

"Current average delivery time is X-X weeks. We're experiencing a high volume of orders, so your delivery time may take longer. Check your account online or speak with your SA for updates on your order status"

Things will improve next year when Germany is building for Europe and China is running at capacity.

Right, if they hadn't said 4-7 weeks up front, that'd be a different story. And if 4-7 weeks always means 7 weeks, then you should just say 7 weeks. And you'd better hit it to boot.

I've never ordered a car before so this has been a completely new experience for me and honestly, I really thought that my expectations would be exceeded or at least met, not failed to have been met. And since those expectations were set by Telsa, they had full control over their own success in meeting them.

Counting down the 16 days until delivery.....

 

[IDRVSLO]

Earlier there was some debate on how cars are allocated for around the world shipping during the quarter. I recently listened to an interview with Elon on the podcast 3rd Row Tesla where this topic is covered. The entire interview is long, but mostly interesting. The bit about shipping cars is towards the end, so if you want to skip ahead go to 3:06:45:

Basically, he states the logistics of shipping all their cars from one plant created these quarterly cycles where they'd spend the first 6 weeks building cars for Europe/Asia, the next 3 weeks for the east coast then the last 3 weeks of the quarter building for the west coast. I know this was mentioned by others here, but hearing it directly from Elon should clarify some of the debate on this.

Congrats to all those getting their cars!

Can someone make this a sticky?

 

[gargantila]

Right, if they hadn't said 4-7 weeks up front, that'd be a different story. And if 4-7 weeks always means 7 weeks, then you should just say 7 weeks. And you'd better hit it to boot.

I've never ordered a car before so this has been a completely new experience for me and honestly, I really thought that my expectations would be exceeded or at least met, not failed to have been met. And since those expectations were set by Telsa, they had full control over their own success in meeting them.

Counting down the 16 days until delivery.....

I think when they say 4-7 weeks... they are giving a really general estimate and if you live in the right region at the right time in the quarter you may end up getting your car in 4 weeks... otherwise it ends up being closer to 7 weeks. But, they should either look at the location you're logging in from or your delivery location choice and be able to give you a much better delivery estimate.

In my case they said 2 weeks delivery back on December 12th... and it'll be 70 days when I finally get my car... so I don't know where they pulled that 2 weeks estimate out of

 

[ofcorona]

I think when they say 4-7 weeks... they are giving a really general estimate and if you live in the right region at the right time in the quarter you may end up getting your car in 4 weeks... otherwise it ends up being closer to 7 weeks. But, they should either look at the location you're logging in from or your delivery location choice and be able to give you a much better delivery estimate.

In my case they said 2 weeks delivery back on December 12th... and it'll be 70 days when I finally get my car... so I don't know where they pulled that 2 weeks estimate out of

I think they were trying to push your vehicle for Q4 results. Then Jan starts the intl orders. Just look to be a misfortune event for you.

 

[jmatero]

Earlier there was some debate on how cars are allocated for around the world shipping during the quarter. I recently listened to an interview with Elon on the podcast 3rd Row Tesla where this topic is covered. The entire interview is long, but mostly interesting. The bit about shipping cars is towards the end, so if you want to skip ahead go to 3:06:45:

Basically, he states the logistics of shipping all their cars from one plant created these quarterly cycles where they'd spend the first 6 weeks building cars for Europe/Asia, the next 3 weeks for the east coast then the last 3 weeks of the quarter building for the west coast. I know this was mentioned by others here, but hearing it directly from Elon should clarify some of the debate on this.

Congrats to all those getting their cars!

Ok, Elon validated exactly what Tesla Sunnyvale SAs told me last week. Makes sense. "Local production stops the wave"

Until there is direct competition (from outside Tesla) they're not hyper focused on wait time system/communication improvements. Heck, in a few weeks that team won't even be at their desks. They'll be delivering cars day and night to SF Bay Area homes.

 

[vanca]

It's too bad that short term (quarterly) financial reporting is being allowed to negatively impact the customer experience.

 

[gargantila]

I think they were trying to push your vehicle for Q4 results. Then Jan starts the intl orders. Just look to be a misfortune event for you.

They even gave me a delivery date back in December... so I think I got screwed by Elon's NYE Freemont delivery event...

But then again lots of other people didn't get their cars at the end of the year... Tesla should have been able to adjust that estimate on their ordering page on the fly based on the amount of orders they were receiving and given us a more realistic estimate... Their estimates messed me up big time since I had to first extend my Q50 lease and then ended up returning it at the end of January (when they told me it'll be coming in 2 weeks when I spoke with them on January 27th)...

If they don't want to change their ordering process... they could build some delivery calculator page that you put in your config info and delivery location and get a realistic estimate and then go to the ordering page if you decide to buy it... it shouldn't be too hard for a self driving auto maker company to do...

 

[bschmer]

I think when they say 4-7 weeks... they are giving a really general estimate and if you live in the right region at the right time in the quarter you may end up getting your car in 4 weeks... otherwise it ends up being closer to 7 weeks. But, they should either look at the location you're logging in from or your delivery location choice and be able to give you a much better delivery estimate.

In my case they said 2 weeks delivery back on December 12th... and it'll be 70 days when I finally get my car... so I don't know where they pulled that 2 weeks estimate out of

Their keister ;-)

 

[bschmer]

It's too bad that short term (quarterly) financial reporting is being allowed to negatively impact the customer experience.

Agreed. And it shouldn't take competition for them to adjust the way they do business. Customer satisfaction comes in many forms and first impressions are lasting....