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Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet
- Thread starter RubberToe
- Start date
That would be helpful for everyone. Thanks!Both rwd. Should probably just add to tracker
Great! You are in the 92 percent that did not participate. But, 8% of Tesla buyers have been participating and Troy has been extrapolating from there.
jgillispie
Member
Just an anecdote related to this. I saw 8 model 3's(7 visible VINs) at a service center about 4 weeks ago and only 1 of those VINs has been added to either the Troy's tracker or the google site.
Looking at the VIN Queue 2 tab, I'm realizing that none of this is capturing original reservation date. Was that ever captured? For my config (AWD, Deep Blue Metallic) there are about a hundred people who all configed in the few days after the config was opened up, and I'm not sure we have a good sense of how Tesla is balancing original reservation date versus configuration date.
Bokonon
Title-customizing Member
Agreed, I'd like to see the reservation date/time column added back, since it appears that Tesla is keying off of this date for VIN assignment rather than configuration date. While there are other factors driving VIN assignment (namely, configuration ordered vs. the quantity of that configuration produced), reservation date seems to matter much more than configuration date.
Hi Folks:
Seems the spreadsheet is a bit behind wrt VINs Tesla has registered with NHTSA?
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter
Seems the spreadsheet is a bit behind wrt VINs Tesla has registered with NHTSA?
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Hi @Troy - Any color on your July delivery estimate of 6.3k as of July 27? Seems a bit low given 11k in-transit on June 30 and this tweet?
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RTPEV
Active Member
Agree, that seems almost unbelievably low. I think Troy did offer some explanation, but when I picked up my car in Raleigh 2 weeks ago (very small operation), even though they only had room for 3 vehicles at a time, they had staggered appointments to allow a flow of one vehicle delivered every 10-15 minutes. Surely when I was there to pick up my car someone was getting ready to drive #1 away, I was looking at #2 and they just brought #3 in. By the time I left car #1 was gone and replaced with a new one. This pace would allow up to 50 a day, but even if we assume they were "only" doing 25/day, that's still 500-600 just out of little 'ol Raleigh.
Yes, logistics are currently holding them up, but I'd be pretty surprised not to see July #'s, including S & X, around 12-13K. But that's just a gut feel. Clearly Troy has actual data.
Hi @Troy,
Can you try to give me an updated opinion for delivery on my order?
Reserved 3/31/2016 by standing in line at store in Manhattan, NY, delivery to done at Mt Kisco.
Placed my order on 5/24/18
AWD non performance
Midnight Silver Metallic
19 inch wheels
FSD
Black interior
Thank you,
Rich
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Honestly a bit nervous about my delivery after seeing the data. One day from configuration to VIN (7/22 to 7/23/18), and what seems like an older VIN (26xxx). Reservation holder only since April 2018. Makes me wonder what the build date will be.
Hi, everybody.
I have removed the July delivery estimate because it relies on the sample rate which has dropped sharply this month. People who placed an order recently without a reservation are a lot less likely to know about this spreadsheet than those who have been waiting since 2016. We already knew that but now I have looked at the production numbers closer and it suggests that the sample rate might have dropped from 7.3% in June to 2.1% in July.
The production estimate for July is 15,205 units and there are hardly any people left waiting for delivery. Look at how this red line dropped sharply in July. It's heading to zero. It will move closer to zero when I clean up some of the outdated data.
I have now separated RWD and AWD VINs. There is currently only one VIN chart that shows RWD VINs. The other VIN chart will be added later when there is more data. However, I suggest checking out the new production tab. I have just updated it within the last hour. It works based on the separate VIN chart idea.
I have removed the July delivery estimate because it relies on the sample rate which has dropped sharply this month. People who placed an order recently without a reservation are a lot less likely to know about this spreadsheet than those who have been waiting since 2016. We already knew that but now I have looked at the production numbers closer and it suggests that the sample rate might have dropped from 7.3% in June to 2.1% in July.
The production estimate for July is 15,205 units and there are hardly any people left waiting for delivery. Look at how this red line dropped sharply in July. It's heading to zero. It will move closer to zero when I clean up some of the outdated data.
I have now separated RWD and AWD VINs. There is currently only one VIN chart that shows RWD VINs. The other VIN chart will be added later when there is more data. However, I suggest checking out the new production tab. I have just updated it within the last hour. It works based on the separate VIN chart idea.
@tentimesodds, @Bokonon,
The other spreadsheet HERE still has the reservation date and ownership status column. I removed those because they are not relevant but feel free to analyze the data there if you want. HERE is a video that shows how to filter and sort. The VIN rate is 5% for owners and non-owners. That means ownership status is irrelevant. Also, if you sort by reservation date you get fewer VINs on top compared to sorting by configuration date which is what actually counts.
@ValueAnalyst, @RTPEV, @schonelucht,
Check out my previous message about deliveries. The sample rate method is not useful these days. It could be useful again after we have the July numbers, assuming Tesla will release some numbers. However, there are very few people waiting for a delivery.
@ras2645,
Make sure your username appears on the VIN Queue 2 tab. Midnight Silver Metallic, LRD orders are starting to get VINs. You should be on top of that list. You might get a VIN very soon.
@woodisgood, 26K looks like a June built. See the chart "VIN vs Month of Manufacture" on the VINs tab, bottom right corner.
The other spreadsheet HERE still has the reservation date and ownership status column. I removed those because they are not relevant but feel free to analyze the data there if you want. HERE is a video that shows how to filter and sort. The VIN rate is 5% for owners and non-owners. That means ownership status is irrelevant. Also, if you sort by reservation date you get fewer VINs on top compared to sorting by configuration date which is what actually counts.
@ValueAnalyst, @RTPEV, @schonelucht,
Check out my previous message about deliveries. The sample rate method is not useful these days. It could be useful again after we have the July numbers, assuming Tesla will release some numbers. However, there are very few people waiting for a delivery.
@ras2645,
Make sure your username appears on the VIN Queue 2 tab. Midnight Silver Metallic, LRD orders are starting to get VINs. You should be on top of that list. You might get a VIN very soon.
@woodisgood, 26K looks like a June built. See the chart "VIN vs Month of Manufacture" on the VINs tab, bottom right corner.
Hi, everybody.
I have removed the July delivery estimate because it relies on the sample rate which has dropped sharply this month. People who placed an order recently without a reservation are a lot less likely to know about this spreadsheet than those who have been waiting since 2016. We already knew that but now I have looked at the production numbers closer and it suggests that the sample rate might have dropped from 7.3% in June to 2.1% in July.
The production estimate for July is 15,205 units and there are hardly any people left waiting for delivery. Look at how this red line dropped sharply in July. It's heading to zero. It will move closer to zero when I clean up some of the outdated data.
I have now separated RWD and AWD VINs. There is currently only one VIN chart that shows RWD VINs. The other VIN chart will be added later when there is more data. However, I suggest checking out the new production tab. I have just updated it within the last hour. It works based on the separate VIN chart idea.
Can you just add in some ratio of people waiting to production estimates? Something that’ll account for the drop off and adjust?
Hi, @shiz. I guess you are using the username Shots in the spreadsheet. If that's not you, you can enter your data here. Then wait for 30-60 minutes and find your username here on the VIN Queue 2 tab. This chart gives you an idea of what's going on.
The table on the right is for the Model 3 P, Midnight Silver Metallic. 14 people have entered their data. 4 of them have received their VINs. There is some randomness with VIN assignments. For example, the two users who configured on 27 June waited for 22 and 24 days for the VIN and somebody who configured on 16 July received their VIN only after 4 days but somebody else who configured on 16 July has been waiting for 12 days. Looking at the VIN rate for P orders, I estimate that you will receive your VIN within 2 weeks.
Tesla is trying to increase AWD production. Looking at the VIN data, I can see that they have switched one of the general assembly lines from RWD to AWD on 19th July and they are making at least 178 AWD Model 3s per day but this number could be higher than I'm calculating with limited AWD data.
The table on the right is for the Model 3 P, Midnight Silver Metallic. 14 people have entered their data. 4 of them have received their VINs. There is some randomness with VIN assignments. For example, the two users who configured on 27 June waited for 22 and 24 days for the VIN and somebody who configured on 16 July received their VIN only after 4 days but somebody else who configured on 16 July has been waiting for 12 days. Looking at the VIN rate for P orders, I estimate that you will receive your VIN within 2 weeks.
Tesla is trying to increase AWD production. Looking at the VIN data, I can see that they have switched one of the general assembly lines from RWD to AWD on 19th July and they are making at least 178 AWD Model 3s per day but this number could be higher than I'm calculating with limited AWD data.
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Hi, @shiz. I guess you are using the username Shots in the spreadsheet. If that's not you, you can enter your data here. Then wait for 30-60 minutes and find your username here on the VIN Queue 2 tab. This chart gives you an idea of what's going on.
The table on the right is for the Model 3 P, Midnight Silver Metallic. 14 people have entered their data. 4 of them have received their VINs. There is some randomness with VIN assignments. For example, the two users who configured on 27 June waited for 22 and 24 days for the VIN and somebody who configured on 16 July received their VIN only after 4 days but somebody else who configured on 16 July has been waiting for 12 days. Looking at the VIN rate for P orders, I estimate that you will receive your VIN within 2 weeks.
Tesla is trying to increase AWD production. Looking at the VIN data, I can see that they have switched one of the general assembly lines from RWD to AWD on 19th July and they are making at least 178 AWD Model 3s per day but this number could be higher than I'm calculating with limited AWD data.
@Troy,
I’ve looked at the Vin2QUE as well, however I can’t make any determination for myself based on the P VIN rate. Can you shed any light on my estimated VIN assignment? Aug-Oct as well. P3D+, 20” Sports, MCR, Black interior all boxes checked. Thank You!
Ski
Troy
I suspect the dual motor versions are being produced faster than your spreadsheet suggests.
My del date for non perf is aug 3rd.
Being east coast-dual motor-non performance-owner I expected it to be late sept but not true.
serial 643xx
Peace and thanks for your long hard efforts to calm excitement and expectations with your spreadsheets.
It's nearly become a full time job crunching numbers.
I suspect the dual motor versions are being produced faster than your spreadsheet suggests.
My del date for non perf is aug 3rd.
Being east coast-dual motor-non performance-owner I expected it to be late sept but not true.
serial 643xx
Peace and thanks for your long hard efforts to calm excitement and expectations with your spreadsheets.
It's nearly become a full time job crunching numbers.
@Skione65, I think you will get your VIN within 3 weeks. There is definitely some movement in the Multi-Coat Red, Performance table.
I think Tesla is now realizing that they need to allocate a larger portion of production to AWD. The contrast between the first and second table below is striking.
@tsla007, I estimate 15,931 units produced in July and I think 2,451 of those will be AWD (LRD or P). I hope Tesla releases the actual number so we can compare.
I think Tesla is now realizing that they need to allocate a larger portion of production to AWD. The contrast between the first and second table below is striking.
@tsla007, I estimate 15,931 units produced in July and I think 2,451 of those will be AWD (LRD or P). I hope Tesla releases the actual number so we can compare.
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