Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[noam]

Correct. The reservation date and ownership status never had any effect after you configure. They only provided early access to the configurator. Now the configurator is open to the public. Therefore they are irrelevant. I expect them to be relevant again for SR/SRD and international orders.

Troy,

Do you still believe this relative to how non-P AWD cars are being allocated. The only color that might align to the view that order date is the key factor is red. All others show allocations that seem to indicate something else is at play. It could be distribution center, but that seems unlikely given how many are being allocated to much later orders.

 

[stonelance]

This is what Tesla says: "Delivery time frame will be based on reservation date, order date, delivery location and vehicle configuration."

It sounds like reservation date only mattered for when invites were sent out, which doesn't matter any more, and that makes sense to me. So the remaining factors are order date, delivery location and config. I'm guessing delivery location doesn't matter much once you get outside of CA. From the spreadsheet, the config seems to matter quite a bit. It appears they are making batches of configs, and not all configs are being made at the same time. If you are lucky and ordered a config they are making first, then you could get a car before someone who ordered before you with a config that isn't being made yet (or not many of them are being made).

 

[noam]

This is what Tesla says: "Delivery time frame will be based on reservation date, order date, delivery location and vehicle configuration."

It sounds like reservation date only mattered for when invites were sent out, which doesn't matter any more, and that makes sense to me. So the remaining factors are order date, delivery location and config. I'm guessing delivery location doesn't matter much once you get outside of CA. From the spreadsheet, the config seems to matter quite a bit. It appears they are making batches of configs, and not all configs are being made at the same time. If you are lucky and ordered a config they are making first, then you could get a car before someone who ordered before you with a config that isn't being made yet (or not many of them are being made).

That doesn't explain the data being captured. Look at the White AWD orders. There are six VINs for orders taken before June 27th and four VINs for orders taken after July 6th, with 65 orders between those two timeframes having no assigned VINs. Something beyond order date is contributing to the logic for AWD assignments.

Blue AWDs are even odder. None of the May or June 26th orders got assignements. The only assignments were one each for June 27, June 28, and June 29.

 

[Sneakerhead]

Where did you take delivery and how busy was it?

Costa mesa..i arrived 15 min early but they were only 5 min late. There were people there waiting before me but the wait isnt that long.

 

[stonelance]

That doesn't explain the data being captured. Look at the White AWD orders. There are six VINs for orders taken before June 27th and four VINs for orders taken after July 6th, with 65 orders between those two timeframes having no assigned VINs. Something beyond order date is contributing to the logic for AWD assignments.

Blue AWDs are even odder. None of the May or June 26th orders got assignements. The only assignments were one each for June 27, June 28, and June 29.

I will take a closer look but it is hard to get too much insight in the data, because another explanation is that people did get assignments but just never bothered to update the sheet.

 

[fishh]

With the recent Q2 results, how does this affect the assignment/delivery predictions? Looks like the spreadsheet is accurately reporting around 22k Model 3's produced. Just wondering as a mid-July orderer.

 

[Bokonon]

I will take a closer look but it is hard to get too much insight in the data, because another explanation is that people did get assignments but just never bothered to update the sheet.

Data point: I'm a May 23rd AWD order who is still waiting to hear anything, anything at all over two months later. Rest assured that I will update the spreadsheet as soon as my VIN is assigned (allowing 5 minutes to complete my happy-dance, of course).

 

[evpulse]

Just pulled the trigger on a M3P today in MSM. I was going to go Model S but decided it will work for our family. Hopefully I'll get it before the end of the year. It's saying Oct -Dec delivery timeframe right now.

 

[DARTH VADERic]

At the rate Tesla wants to build Model 3s, a VIN system of max 5 chars in the tracker will roll over in a few more weeks. Looks like the highest VIN assigned in the survey is 738xx. Assuming @Troy will need to update that limitation soon? I think the 6th to last digit for everyone probably is "0" so far. They're really ramping up!

 

[QueenWB]

As a brand new member here who just test drove a M3 last weekend, I have hopeful news for others. I decided to purchase and configured on Sunday - three days ago - and just got an email that my order is ready. I spoke to the sales advisor who sent me the email, and he said that my M3 should be delivered next week. Granted, my order is pretty basic, but I was still shocked, given what I’ve tracked on this site.

RWD, 18 Aero, Solid Black, EAP

 

[bonaire]

With the recent Q2 results, how does this affect the assignment/delivery predictions? Looks like the spreadsheet is accurately reporting around 22k Model 3's produced. Just wondering as a mid-July orderer.

Are you saying that you think that 22k Model 3's were produced in July?

 

[Oloron]

I will take a closer look but it is hard to get too much insight in the data, because another explanation is that people did get assignments but just never bothered to update the sheet.

For another data point re: your post and @Bokonon above, I got my VIN and delivery date about a week ago. However, I got the call/email while on the road for work and between being busy and then slipping my mind when I finally got free, I didn't actually update my entry in the sheet until today. (better late than never?)

Also, for what it's worth, I was around on the boards during the roll-out of Model X deliveries and noticed that people's engagement on the boards began to slow once they got their cars and deliveries became more common. That may be happening a bit now that deliveries for the Model 3 are ramping up.

 

[golfpilot]

That doesn't explain the data being captured. Look at the White AWD orders. There are six VINs for orders taken before June 27th and four VINs for orders taken after July 6th, with 65 orders between those two timeframes having no assigned VINs. Something beyond order date is contributing to the logic for AWD assignments.

Blue AWDs are even odder. None of the May or June 26th orders got assignements. The only assignments were one each for June 27, June 28, and June 29.

It's a little frustrating to see people who ordered 50 days after me, or more, have already recieved a VIN. I was a day 1 reservation. Location and current Tesla owner are the only two things that wouldn't but me at the top of the list. I am a fremont pickup...

 

[kengchang]

It's a little frustrating to see people who ordered 50 days after me, or more, have already recieved a VIN. I was a day 1 reservation. Location and current Tesla owner are the only two things that wouldn't but me at the top of the list. I am a fremont pickup...

Fremont has much longer list of people to go through than other place.

 

[woodisgood]

@woodisgood, 26K looks like a June built. See the chart "VIN vs Month of Manufacture" on the VINs tab, bottom right corner.

Yep, indeed it was! Despite its "age" nothing major wrong with it that I could find so I'm happy.

 

[golfpilot]

I was contacted by the advisor this morning. Got all the financing and stuff completed. How many days from then does it take to get a VIN. When asked, the advisor said he will let me know as soon as one is assigned.

 

[bonaire]

I was contacted by the advisor this morning. Got all the financing and stuff completed. How many days from then does it take to get a VIN. When asked, the advisor said he will let me know as soon as one is assigned.

Are you establishing a loan at this point or waiting on VIN? Don't start a loan until you can touch your car...

 

[jeffco98]

I'm watching Troy's spreadsheet like many of you, I see someone today got a VIN for an AWD Solid Black that was just ordered 10 days ago. Wow...lucky guy

 

[Troy]

I'm watching Troy's spreadsheet like many of you, I see someone today got a VIN for an AWD Solid Black that was just ordered 10 days ago. Wow...lucky guy

Apparently, that was somebody who had a reservation. The R in 10R✓ means reservation. I'm starting to change my mind on this. Having a reservation might have an effect after all.

 

[kiartu]

Apparently, that was somebody who had a reservation. The R in 10R✓ means reservation. I'm starting to change my mind on this. Having a reservation might have an effect after all.

I'm pretty sure it's the highest factor in VIN Assignment/Delivery, after watching the data for a couple months. Someone reserved who hasn't configured is obviously not going to beat someone who has, to a VIN, assuming all other dates the same...

But assuming config dates are similar on an identical build? Oldest reservation beats out older config every time.