Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[kiartu]

That's why the sheet is driving me a little crazy watching it. We don't have reservation date (though the 'I have a reservation' data point is helpful none the less).

 

[kiartu]

Granted. I've ONLY been watching AWD/P... I can't speak to the RWD's at all ;P

 

[shiz]

#troy do u follow model 3 vin on twitter? it appears the highest vin is up to 89,000+ and most of the new ones are AWD-P

 

[299792458]

Any history showing time from VIN registration to assigning or delivering that VIN to a customer?

 

[Troy]

@shiz, I follow NHTSA VINs closely. I actually don't use the data posted on twitter because it's not specific enough. Check out the tweets here that show how the user posts the data and how I need the data to be specified. I need to know exactly where RWD and AWD start and end. Therefore, I do my own checks. Below is a screenshot of my spreadsheet.

 

[Troy]

Any history showing time from VIN registration to assigning or delivering that VIN to a customer?

That data is too random to be useful. Tesla is intentionally randomizing Model 3 VIN assignments. Therefore trying to guess when the VINs they acquired today might end up in customer cars is not possible. It could be 1 week later or 11 weeks later. They only randomize Model 3 VIN assignments but not Model S or X. Here is how Model X VINs look like. Notice how the VINs reported by buyers form a straight line.

Now, look at the RWD Model 3 VINs below. The blue dots are all over the place. For example, on 23rd April, Tesla acquired VIN 28K from NHTSA. They started to assign 28K VINs to buyers on 3rd May and continued until 16th July. During those 11 weeks, they also assigned VINs below and above 28K. What does it all mean? It means Tesla doesn't want people to track Model 3 production easily.

The AWD VINs they acquired could mean they are planning to increase LRD&P production. I'm watching all the data closely and will update the Production tab when necessary. Currently, the Production tab is up to date and no changes are needed.

 

[Benihect]

How can I edit my submission. When I attempted to do an edit it added a second entry for me instead.

I reserved June 10th, 2018
original order was July 6th, 2018 for MSM, AWD, EAP
edited order 08/02/18 to MSM , PM3, no PUP

 

[kengchang]

@Troy Maybe you can add another question asking Did Test Drive convinced you to place order?

 

[Benihect]

@shiz, I follow NHTSA VINs closely. I actually don't use the data posted on twitter because it's not specific enough. Check out the tweets here that show how the user posts the data and how I need the data to be specified. I need to know exactly where RWD and AWD start and end. Therefore, I do my own checks. Below is a screenshot of my spreadsheet.

Two questions are you saying most of today’s 9K or not retail vehicles for customers ?

Second question is there a way you could add column on tracking for reservation date ? With the AWD orders being majority of orders would be cool to see how they are filling.

 

[SPIKE's M3AWD]

Troy is awesome. I calculated my delivery date right after he posted in back in Sept of 2016, The Troy Estimator was incredibly accurate. My delivery was on Aug 4. The Troy Estimator calculated Aug 8. My Delivery advisor actually told me Aug 10 but I was able to move it up a week.

 

[Orizu]

@Troy

Not sure how to read the spreadsheet. When would you estimate my VIN assignment/delivery? Details here:

Vancouver, BC


Reservation - June 5th, 2016...

Original (non- performance) notification to order received - Apr 26th, 2018...

Performance Model ordered - July 2nd, 2018 (missed the June 27th email - went to junk mail grrrr)...

Stated delivery date - Aug to Oct 2018...

VIN notification - TBC...

Delivery date - TBC...


Spec:

Obsidian Black...

Performance Upgrade w/black interior...

Enhanced Autopilot...

Thanks!

 

[Troy]

Not sure how to read the spreadsheet. When would you estimate my VIN assignment/delivery?

There is no estimate. spike09 was talking about a different project of mine called the Model 3 Delivery Estimator. That tool is not useful anymore for LR/LRD/P orders from North America. However, European buyers and SR/SRD buyers can find it here.

@Troy Maybe you can add another question asking Did Test Drive convinced you to place order?

I'm not sure about that but I will think about it if you explain the idea behind it in more detail.

Are you saying most of today’s 9K are not retail vehicles for customers?

I'm sure almost all of them are for customers. Somebody asked when the 10,528 AWD VINs Tesla acquired on 4 and 5 August will end up in customer cars and whether there is historical data about that time. I said, there is not data and Tesla is intentionally randomizing VIN assignments making this kind of data completely useless.

Is there a way you could add a column for reservation date?

The question about the reservation date creates too many technical challenges. There is already a question asking whether or not somebody has a reservation. This is a mandatory question and it is better than an optional question asking about the reservation date.

Entries with a reservation have the letter R in the VIN Queue tab. Also, all entries with a reservation are on top of the table, followed by entries without a reservation. This gives the reader an idea about what is going on.

 

[Wubbles]

Has any analysis been done to determine the delta between VIN registertration vs VIN assignment? For example mine (545XX) was registered on 6/28. A month later was when an ISA reached out to me with a VIN assignment and with good news that the vehicle was in transit to its delivery location.

 

[tentimesodds]

Has any analysis been done to determine the delta between VIN registertration vs VIN assignment? For example mine (545XX) was registered on 6/28. A month later was when an ISA reached out to me with a VIN assignment and with good news that the vehicle was in transit to its delivery location.

I was just thinking about this concept and looking up recent reported VIN assignment dates versus the dates those VINs were registered. Looks like it's around 3-4 weeks between registration and assignment. Happy to be corrected by people more in the know.

Another thought I had was that Troy's spreadsheet is covering a good percentage of the total customer base. A quick calculation shows that Troy's sheet has about 5-6% (give or take) of the RWD deliveries that have been made to date. If that percentage holds (a large assumption), then the 849 total AWD or AWDP waiting for a VIN in Troy's sheet would represent roughly 14-15K VINs overall. About 13,500 dual-motor VINs have been registered since Saturday, 8/4. This leads me to believe that most of the AWD and AWDP orders without VINs will be getting them in the next 3-4 weeks.

 

[suwaneedad]

@shiz, I follow NHTSA VINs closely. I actually don't use the data posted on twitter because it's not specific enough. Check out the tweets here that show how the user posts the data and how I need the data to be specified. I need to know exactly where RWD and AWD start and end. Therefore, I do my own checks. Below is a screenshot of my spreadsheet.

@Troy, looks like Tesla currently has registered about 10k 'unused' RWD VINs, and 25+k 'unused' AWD VINs. The significant uptick in AWD VINs registered w NHTSA yesterday (and ~no increase in RWDs) has some pretty compelling and obvious implications. Namely, RWD production is fairly minor these days (no surprise given the US market is still absorbing inventory RWDs built during the June/July ramp to 5k+), and presumably AWD North America demand is high (no surprise) and (less surprising) the Tesla supply chain is able to meet that demand without thwarting the overall 5-6k/wk production target. (I do note that your sheet currently has a production rate of ~2500/wk, and it is interesting that Bloomberg is showing 5500/wk currently. I tend to believe your sheet over Bloomberg, given track record.) I am surprised that Tesla can make the front motors at this pace already. Meanwhile white seats do appear to be in short supply given the VIN assignment trends that are ~all black interiors on the AWDs/P+ configs.

Agree?

 

[Troy]

I added separate versions of the 'Waiting for VIN vs waiting for delivery' charts for each trim level. You can find these on the Delivery tab as well as VINs tab.

@Wubbles, see message #846, a few messages above.

@suwaneedad, yes I think we will see more AWD production than RWD for a while. Today was actually a record day with 9 reported AWD VINs. This data can be found in VINs!E63 or 'VIN Queue'!H12:H26. We will see if the trend continues.

 

[bonaire]

I am finding that the # of new entries in the spreadsheet is quite low these days. Is this a sign that consumers are not really participating in the TMC forum? Or that they do not know about it? I would suspect that with the 5000/wk type of production level, far more participation online (especially in this forum) would be occurring versus the older 1-2k per week scenario.

suwaneedad's note about about "unused" Vins is indicative of something, but it's hard to know why that would be the case. Vin #s are just a simple numeric series of cars, there is no reason to skip or make unused Vins occur.

 

[Troy]

I added this new table to the Production tab. Used means units produced so far. The interesting thing here is that they have a lot more AWD VINs on hand compared to RWD. This suggests that Tesla might be planning to produce more AWD Model 3s than RWD in the next few weeks. @suwaneedad, thanks for the idea.

 

[xdriv3]

Has the spreadsheet been laggy for others? I can barely scroll through the doc

 

[srharris22]

I got the updated page in my account today where I could add financials for the loan and then moved to the contract phase....so assume I am just waiting for ‘the call’ now

3/31/16 reservation 10:31PM EDT
1/17/18 first production invite
6/26 P/AWD invite
6/27 P3D red aero, with white interior (skipping EAP/FSD)
8/7/18 updated ‘payment’ section