JFW1103
Member
I would have guessed that basic black would be one of the first batches. Looking at the spreadsheet it looks like there aren't as many VINs assigned to Black.
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Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet
- Thread starter RubberToe
- Start date
Of course they do. Tesla even says so. Ordering a Model 3 last section on delivery. If you look at the meta data for the page it was updated on 8/9 and published on 8/10, so it is actively updated. Are there factors that would alter pure reservation time order, yes. but by and large it's reservation date driven. Even though now you don't formally get a reservation you have a reservation date of your order date. The recent batch of 10,500+ VIN are almost exclusively AWD. Look at the ratio of Performance to AWD, very lopsided toward non-P.Yes, color affects VIN assignments. Deep Blue Metallic is the most popular color for Model 3 LRD and the second most popular after Red multi-coat for P but for some reason the last two weeks were not great for Deep Blue Metallic. However, that's only for LRD and P. LR VIN rate was very good. The screenshot source for this chart is the VIN Queue tab HERE.
Correct. The reservation date and ownership status never had any effect after you configure. They only provided early access to the configurator. Now the configurator is open to the public. Therefore they are irrelevant. I expect them to be relevant again for SR/SRD and international orders.
There is a problem here. I am not on it whereas I am on, what I believe is its base Tesla Model 3 Invites - All Entries
This has 4988 entries
umair239
Member
This is amazing work. I am about to add my info in the spreadsheet. I am in Kentucky and placed the order for P3D on August 1st. Do we know what's the average wait time for Performance versions based off of this spreadsheet data?
Your first interaction with Tesla was a few weeks ago? Here's the problem. There are (presumably)thousands of orders, some for performance that are just now getting fulfilled. If you ordered 12 days ago, there are a lot of orders ahead of you. While they had been doing RWD and Performance exclusively or nearly so since up until this month any pattern that could be gleaned from the spreadsheet will be skewed do to the backlog. What Tesla has said and still says delivery will be based on reservation date primarily, then order date locale...configuration. Further, the spreadsheet is a fraction of orders and reservations so confidence of anything predicted based on the spreadsheet is low.
When I called Tesla about a week ago they suggested calling them maybe weekly as delivery specialists are out straight and may not get to your transition to built for a week or more.
Hi, @umair239. There is a queue for P and LR-AWD versions. If you ordered on 1st Aug and you don't have a reservation, you are pretty much at the end of the queue.
So far 238 P buyers have entered their data. 45 of them have received their VINs and 193 are still waiting. In the last week, 10 P buyers have reported receiving a VIN. A week before that it was 9 and the week before that, it was again 9. Tesla is slowly increasing LR-AWD and P production.
Clearing out the VIN queue for current P buyers could take between 16 and 19 weeks. Therefore, my best guess is, your car will be delivered in December. There is a chance you could get your car sooner. Tesla could switch a larger portion of the production to AWD. Also, about 8% of LR-AWD and P buyers who don't have a reservation have also received their VINs. You could be one of those lucky people.
So far 238 P buyers have entered their data. 45 of them have received their VINs and 193 are still waiting. In the last week, 10 P buyers have reported receiving a VIN. A week before that it was 9 and the week before that, it was again 9. Tesla is slowly increasing LR-AWD and P production.
Clearing out the VIN queue for current P buyers could take between 16 and 19 weeks. Therefore, my best guess is, your car will be delivered in December. There is a chance you could get your car sooner. Tesla could switch a larger portion of the production to AWD. Also, about 8% of LR-AWD and P buyers who don't have a reservation have also received their VINs. You could be one of those lucky people.
Hey Troy, how would you describe the relationship of your spreadsheet with Tesla Model 3 Invites spreadsheet. I think you're mining more information but the other seems to be twice the size (5000 vs 2500).
Do you have a questimate on when the LR-AWD queue will be fulfilled? I reserved about a year ago 11 1/2 months.
Would you concur there is a 15:1 ratio between LR-AWD and PerfAWD?
What would you guess is the ratio of self reporting vs total orders? 10:1...ish?
tnx!
Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet is the previous name of this project. I was one of two people working on that project. I did about 95% of the work until the end of April. In early May, the project split into two projects. One was known as the Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet (this project) and the other was known as the Model 3 Invites website. After Tesla stopped sending out invites and opened the configurator to everyone, I changed the name from Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet to Model 3 Order Tracker.
I'm not mining anything. All the data is entered by buyers themselves using the Google form here. Also, your 2,500 number is wrong. Currently, there are 4,413 entries in the Model 3 Order Tracker project. You can see the count in cell A1 on the All Entries tab. The number would have been over 6K but I cleaned up the data. I deleted all SR and SR-AWD entries and all entries by people who reserved but didn't configure or configured but didn't enter a VIN. The quality of the data is not comparable.
For example, in this project, there are 4,380 configurations compared to 3,585 in the other project (my previous project).
Also, this project has 3,112 VINs compared to 2,347.
In addition, if you look at July and August 2018 configurations, there are 356 configurations in this project since 1st July 2018 compared to only 81 in the other project. Here is a link to this project. Here is a link to the other project. Here is a video that shows how you can filter and sort the data in case you want to check the numbers I mentioned.
There are 729 LR-AWD entries without a VIN. The VIN rate was 14, 29, 28 units in the last 3 weeks. It should increase over time. There aren't many LR orders left. Also, Tesla is not acquiring any RWD VINs anymore. We should see a sharp increase in AWD production in the next few weeks. Tesla could clear out the current AWD and P waiting list in 12 to 16 weeks.
You can check out the numbers in the VINs tab columns H and I, monthly tables. I see 821 LR AWD orders compared to 240 P. The ratio is 3.4/1. 23% of AWD orders are the P version.
The sample rate appears to be 2.11% these days. It used to be 7-9% in the past but it's normal that people who are ordering now are less aware of this project than people who waited since 31st March 2016.
The sample rate is important but it's not relevant to everything. For example, the estimates on the Production tab mostly don't depend on the sample rate because I'm using the numerical values of the VINs people are reporting to calculate production estimates. To understand this better, check out the 'RWD VIN Chart' tab. If there were more entries, the blue dots would be denser but they would still occupy the same area. The green line that shows the estimate is pretty much hand drawn based on the area of the blue dots.
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I was just doing an eyeball.
By mining I meant graphs and charts.
On this first png note the row number 4990
On the second png note eye-ball difference on the right column listing ONLY AWD and Perf.
I was referring to,presumably, CJ's spreadsheet.
Also, I added my information into your spreadsheet today. I had added into the other 4-6 weeks ago or so.
The gist of the awd to performance is, as you said, they are done, for the moment with RWD. At 5500/week it seems to me they could be done with both VERY soon. I was told the stock Sept to Nov... I was guessing more than likely Sept. But I didn't want to influence your answer.
So I was just curious.
Attachments
I count 77 'pages' of 31 rows per page...last time I checked that was ~2390
I read in Bloomberg, as I recall, this last batch of VINs registered, 10,500 total, are 100% AWD. If Bloomberg is accurate that would imply RWD will virtually cease to be produced, for a time. I would speculate until they clear the AWD and Perf backlog. Right?
umair239
Member
Thank you Troy, I am a a reservation holder from October 2016 and had an invite for some time. However, I finalized my configuration and submitted my complete order on August 1st. Does that give me at least a little bit of a leeway over new orders?
umair239
Member
Reserved April 1 2016, ordered August 5th. Performance. Any idea what number in line I am and what is your estimated delivery? Thanks
Hi, @Randy7fx. 74% of reservations were placed on 31st March 2016, 9% on 1st April 2016. That means you are within 83% of reservation holders. I'm counting 119 reservation holders among P buyers. That means you should be around 99th in the queue. That translates to 7 to 10 weeks from now for the VIN, plus 10 days for delivery. My best guess is, your delivery will be before 29th Oct. I don't know how long before because it depends on how quickly Tesla can ramp up AWD. So, I'm going to assume between 29 Sep and 29 Oct 2018.
For non-reservation holders, it is unlikely that they will see their VIN in August or September.
For non-reservation holders, it is unlikely that they will see their VIN in August or September.
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FalconHeavy
Member
@Troy I know you'd probably rather not do this all night 
but.... I was dumb and cancelled my 4/1/16 reservation. So, no res, non-owner configured LR AWD - White Seats on 7/31 before the price increase.
(Part 1) Would you still estimate December for that car?
(Part 2)
My local power utility has a rebate that is limited to 40 customers, debating switching to RWD to take advantage just in case the AWD IS December.
Would you assume that switching to RWD at this point of AWD ramp would still result in the 3-7 day VIN assignment we'd be seeing lately for RWD?
but.... I was dumb and cancelled my 4/1/16 reservation. So, no res, non-owner configured LR AWD - White Seats on 7/31 before the price increase. (Part 1) Would you still estimate December for that car?
(Part 2)
My local power utility has a rebate that is limited to 40 customers, debating switching to RWD to take advantage just in case the AWD IS December.
Would you assume that switching to RWD at this point of AWD ramp would still result in the 3-7 day VIN assignment we'd be seeing lately for RWD?
@dedas101, not using your reservation will postpone your AWD delivery by 9 to 12 weeks. If you have placed your order with a new mytesla account that doesn't have your reservation, you should consider canceling the order and placing a new order or maybe Tesla can move your order over to your old account. Otherwise, you are looking at a December delivery but that's not guaranteed either. The LR-AWD order queue is huge.
@FalconHeavy, because you are considering switching from AWD to RWD, that makes it kind of difficult for me to comment on what might happen because I don't know all the details with certainty. What if Tesla stops assigning VINs to LR orders after a certain date and they focus only on clearing out the queue until that date? For example, on 8 Aug they assigned VINs to people who ordered this month but on 9 and 10 Aug, they went back to June and July orders. It looks like they are trying to clear out the forgotten orders. There is a chance they might suddenly stop LR VINs after a certain date and try to equalize LR-AWD until the same date.
So, on one hand, you have a December or potentially January delivery for the LR-AWD but on the other hand, you risk switching to LR and Tesla potentially stopping production for LR after a certain deadline. Therefore, you have to make the decisions at your own risk. I'm counting 561 LR-AWD reservation holders and 257 LR-AWD non-reservation holders in front of you. That's 818 people in total. These days, the queue moves by 30 people per week but it will increase over time. However, even then, delivery in Nov doesn't look possible for you. December is likely but even December is kind of at risk.
In short, 1) Yes for December and potentially January and 2) Could be possible. Try at your own risk. Maybe wait for LR VINs on Monday to see if any of those are assigned to Aug orders.
Here is what I mean. These are the latest LR VINs and none of the configuration dates in the red box are August even though there are new orders in Aug. However, if you look at below the red line, somebody who configured on 7 Aug, received a VIN the next day. Maybe wait until you see August configs with 13 Aug VIN dates for the LR to make sure there is no deadline.
So, on one hand, you have a December or potentially January delivery for the LR-AWD but on the other hand, you risk switching to LR and Tesla potentially stopping production for LR after a certain deadline. Therefore, you have to make the decisions at your own risk. I'm counting 561 LR-AWD reservation holders and 257 LR-AWD non-reservation holders in front of you. That's 818 people in total. These days, the queue moves by 30 people per week but it will increase over time. However, even then, delivery in Nov doesn't look possible for you. December is likely but even December is kind of at risk.
In short, 1) Yes for December and potentially January and 2) Could be possible. Try at your own risk. Maybe wait for LR VINs on Monday to see if any of those are assigned to Aug orders.
Here is what I mean. These are the latest LR VINs and none of the configuration dates in the red box are August even though there are new orders in Aug. However, if you look at below the red line, somebody who configured on 7 Aug, received a VIN the next day. Maybe wait until you see August configs with 13 Aug VIN dates for the LR to make sure there is no deadline.
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