Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[Troy]

When I view this, I cannot discern if the rate of change is positive, flat, negative or erratic.

Check out these other charts:
Model 3 delivery estimates based on VINs
Model 3 weekly production rate estimates based on VINs
Model 3 monthly delivery estimates based on VINs

CJ: is there any thoughts on using a logarithmic graph to show if the rate of change in VIN production is accelerating, stable or decaying?

I recommend looking at production rates here:
Model 3 weekly production rate estimates based on VINs

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Check out these other charts:
Model 3 delivery estimates based on VINs
Model 3 weekly production rate estimates based on VINs
Model 3 monthly delivery estimates based on VINs



I recommend looking at production rates here:
Model 3 weekly production rate estimates based on VINs

OK, it seems your estimates are better than nhtsa because of all the vin assignments in 4xxx, 5xxx, 6xxx ranges over that last week.

Also, March seems too high on your estimates. Earnings call said they're shipping working automated assembly from Germany to Fremont. That's what gets them to 2.5k per week. I would expect they get it working last 3 days of March and rate will be mostly unchanged until then.

 

[chojn1]

@chojn1 and @Troy, now that Tesla has moved out the delivery ranges, do you want us to go in and refresh that field in the estimator individually? It's never been clear to me whether we were supposed to list initial estimate (Feb-Apr for me), the first revised estimate (Mar-May for me, until an hour ago), or the latest and greatest revision (Jun-Aug for me). By the way, Troy's had my delivery pegged at mid-July for well over a month...good for Tesla to finally be catching up to his science!

@suwaneedad,
We have actually been working on this the last couple of days in preparation for this eventuality. We will take care of it.
Thanks,
CJ

 

[ergela]

Not seeing a way to edit "First production delivery estimate before 5 Feb 2018" with the form on the spreadsheet.

 

[chojn1]

Hi @ergela,
Wow! good to see a fellow Houstonian.
You don't need to put before Feb 5th estimate anymore. Just put in the revised number, we'll take it from there.
Thanks
CJ

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

OK, it seems your estimates are better than nhtsa because of all the vin assignments in 4xxx, 5xxx, 6xxx ranges over that last week.

Also, March seems too high on your estimates. Earnings call said they're shipping working automated assembly from Germany to Fremont. That's what gets them to 2.5k per week. I would expect they get it working last 3 days of March and rate will be mostly unchanged until then.

In fact, just thinking about this, the rate might drop as they switch from semi automated lines to fully automated lines.

 

[Zythryn]

When I click on the link to edit my info, I get into a never ending cycle of being asked to sign in.
Unable to update for that reason.
Using Microsoft Edge 41.16299.15.0

 

[RedOctober]

Hi @ergela,
Wow! good to see a fellow Houstonian.
You don't need to put before Feb 5th estimate anymore. Just put in the revised number, we'll take it from there.
Thanks
CJ

I wanted to say the two of you are very patient with people which is nice. I used one of these Google docs when I was ordering my model S. Pretty useful tool to see how things are progressing. Keep up the good work.

 

[ergela]

Hi @ergela,
Wow! good to see a fellow Houstonian.
You don't need to put before Feb 5th estimate anymore. Just put in the revised number, we'll take it from there.
Thanks
CJ

Thanks CJ, hopefully we can do a meetup when we get our M3's

 

[jp97070]

Today in Portland picked up 3 with a friend on my owner order from 9/16. Owned since 12/14. Vin 57xx. Also saw 60xx, 61xx and 62xx.

 

[Troy]

@Zythryn, you can tell us here what you want to change and we will update it for you or use the suggestions tab here or open the pre-form entries tab here while you are not signed in (incognito mode is fine) and insert a comment anonymously into the cell you want to edit. By the way, the form asks for a sign in because it limits entries to 1 per user, however, it is still anonymous as you can see on the sign in page.

 

[John Beans]

Also, March seems too high on your estimates. Earnings call said they're shipping working automated assembly from Germany to Fremont. That's what gets them to 2.5k per week. I would expect they get it working last 3 days of March and rate will be mostly unchanged until then.

Assume you guys saw the 8K Tesla filed clarifying that they could reach 2,500 with existing methods by end of Q1, and that 2,500 did not depend on installation of the new line from Germany.

Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018. With respect to battery module production, Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is dependent only on the equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1, as well as the incremental capacity that is currently being added through the semi-automated lines that were also discussed during the conference call.

Tesla - Current Report

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Assume you guys saw the 8K Tesla filed clarifying that they could reach 2,500 with existing methods by end of Q1, and that 2,500 did not depend on installation of the new line from Germany.

Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018. With respect to battery module production, Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is dependent only on the equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1, as well as the incremental capacity that is currently being added through the semi-automated lines that were also discussed during the conference call.

Tesla - Current Report

Yeah, that was a pleasant news. However, you have to keep in mind that last two weeks, all we have been seeing are vin assignments in 3-6k ranges. That potentially means they're tweaking with the line and production is standing still. I can't wait to get my Mar-may first production delivery to happen but it's difficult to be optimistic right now. Fingers crossed.

 

[RTPEV]

Assume you guys saw the 8K Tesla filed clarifying that they could reach 2,500 with existing methods by end of Q1, and that 2,500 did not depend on installation of the new line from Germany.

Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018. With respect to battery module production, Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is dependent only on the equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1, as well as the incremental capacity that is currently being added through the semi-automated lines that were also discussed during the conference call.

Tesla - Current Report

While maybe technically true, I don't necessarily think it's practically true. Apparent lack of new invites, lack of higher than low 6000's VIN sightings, lack of increased activity in the factory lots, all adds up to the weekly production rate still at or below 1000 to me. Maybe there is a rush coming down the pipe, but it does still seem constrained (even if well above the initial production rate of 100-200/week).

If they were capable of 2500 per week right now at the GF, then clearly there is another bottleneck they are not telling us about because they are clearly not producing 2500 per week right now.

 

[John Beans]

There was a 7XXX this week in Pennsylvania (rumored to be Electric Jen's, hers was definitely in that batch in Devon, PA).
There have been owners reporting getting a second Model 3 VIN assigned, while there are still at least some owners (even in California) waiting on their first.

 

[Troy]

There have been owners reporting getting a second Model 3 VIN assigned

I think those are people who owned more than one Tesla in the past. Here is a screenshot of this page that shows how Tesla has changed the wording of owner priority.

[Old version] Yes. If you own one Tesla, you will receive priority for one Model 3 reservation. If you own two or more Teslas, you will receive priority for up to two Model 3 reservations.
[New version] Yes. If you have owned one Tesla, you will receive priority for one Model 3 reservation. If you have owned two or more Teslas, you will receive priority for up to two Model 3 reservations.

In other words, somebody who bought two Teslas in the past can have priority for two Model 3s and they don't need to own either of them now. This is not a new change. It happened in November. However, it is now more relevant because a few days ago Tesla has moved AWD delivery estimates for owners to Mid-2018. That means owners who have already taken delivery of an RWD Model 3, could reserve another Model 3 now and they would get priority on the AWD version as well before the tax credits drop to $3,750 after 30 Sep 2018.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Feb 15 is coming. Brace yourselves!

 

[VIKING26]

Feb 15 is coming. Brace yourselves!

I'll take the bait, what happens on Feb 15th?

 

[navguy12]

I'll take the bait, what happens on Feb 15th?

The sun comes up

 

[GoneCrazy]

I'll take the bait, what happens on Feb 15th?

Another week of no new invites most likely