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Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

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I ordered mine on a whim Dec 26th 2017.
This is the most recent reservation deposit date that I've seen indicate receipt of an invitation to configure.
Can ~safely say that all US owners who placed deposits by 12/31/17 have now been invited to configure?
Perhaps we'll see some Jan/Feb 2018 US S/X owner deposit-placers getting config invites as well...this will be another interesting batch of data, since perhaps quite a few S/X owners did make Model 3 reservations just recently...Jan/Feb 2018...having seen Model 3 first-hand, or for other reasons.
Wonder if Tesla will still prioritize these '11th hour' S/X owner Model 3 reservations, and if so...for how much longer or perhaps perpetually which is pretty cool frankly.
To that end, will Model 3 owners enjoy priority on their additional (subsequent) Model 3 reservations, or on Model Y for that matter?
 
This is the most recent reservation deposit date that I've seen indicate receipt of an invitation to configure.
Can ~safely say that all US owners who placed deposits by 12/31/17 have now been invited to configure?
Perhaps we'll see some Jan/Feb 2018 US S/X owner deposit-placers getting config invites as well...this will be another interesting batch of data, since perhaps quite a few S/X owners did make Model 3 reservations just recently...Jan/Feb 2018...having seen Model 3 first-hand, or for other reasons.
Wonder if Tesla will still prioritize these '11th hour' S/X owner Model 3 reservations, and if so...for how much longer or perhaps perpetually which is pretty cool frankly.
To that end, will Model 3 owners enjoy priority on their additional (subsequent) Model 3 reservations, or on Model Y for that matter?

Can't remember which thread but someone that reserved 2/5/18 reported getting an invite. That's the very end of the owners in my book.
 
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I reserved mine on a whim Dec 26th 2017.

Was invited to order mine today with a 3-6 week delivery window.

Holding out for AWD. Planning to get all of the available options as well and extended battery.

On the AWD front, I went from Late 2018 to Mid 2018.


Curious did you click Defer already or select the AWD selection box? We're talking it over tonight but seriously leaning that way and not sure what exactly to expect with the configurator. Wish they would announce pricing, features, etc. for the AWD and thinking that won't be too much longer.
 
Curious did you Defer already? We're talking it over tonight but seriously leaning that way. Wish they would announce pricing, features, etc. for it.

Yeah. I was in a situation on the way to Vegas where my AWD saved me from something bad.

Also, I would like to lease. I also extended my current Tesla lease 6 months, so, I can wait it out a bit. But, agree wish we could get more content.
 
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Curious did you click Defer already or select the AWD selection box? We're talking it over tonight but seriously leaning that way and not sure what exactly to expect with the configurator. Wish they would announce pricing, features, etc. for the AWD and thinking that won't be too much longer.

I’ve no direct experience however it sounds like you can defer and go back anytime and configure with whatever options are available...
 
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Invites to owners are almost done. To see the latest data click HERE, wait a few seconds for filters to kick in, then look at Col H (Reservation date) and Col K (Invite date) as you scroll down. Some owners who reserved last month have received invites.
In a few days, Tesla will need more people to configure but this doesn't necessarily mean invites to non-owners. It could be one of the following:
  • Add white interior to the configurator
  • Add AWD to the configurator
  • Send out invites to Canada
  • Send out invites to line-waiters in the US
 
Invites to owners are almost done. To see the latest data click HERE, wait a few seconds for filters to kick in, then look at Col H (Reservation date) and Col K (Invite date) as you scroll down. Some owners who reserved last month have received invites.
In a few days, Tesla will need more people to configure but this doesn't necessarily mean invites to non-owners. It could be one of the following:
  • Add white interior to the configurator
  • Add AWD to the configurator
  • Send out invites to Canada
  • Send out invites to line-waiters in the US

I am happy to keep waiting... but it would be mildly frustrating to find that Tesla is adding options in order to get more owners to configure while pushing non-owners out even further. It's already been shown that Tesla is ignoring their own FAQ to some degree by allowing at least some owners with only one S or X to configure multiple 3s.
 
Invites to owners are almost done. To see the latest data click HERE, wait a few seconds for filters to kick in, then look at Col H (Reservation date) and Col K (Invite date) as you scroll down. Some owners who reserved last month have received invites.
In a few days, Tesla will need more people to configure but this doesn't necessarily mean invites to non-owners. It could be one of the following:
  • Add white interior to the configurator
  • Add AWD to the configurator
  • Send out invites to Canada
  • Send out invites to line-waiters in the US
Although your post is factually true, I will suggest that if Tesla picks anything other than the last bullet mutiny will ensue...
 
@chojn1 now that there are going to be several variations to order soon will there be a column added for what version was configured? Right now anything with a config date is obviously RW/LR but that could be changing really quickly. Would be nice to track.
@SMAlset,
That is relatively easy to do with the current setup. We just convert the deferral reasons to various ordering configurations.
 
I am not as optimistic as you guys are on the non-owner delivery date.

Here is my rational:

There have been 614 invites to owners reported to the spreadsheet.
488 of those are to owners with 3/31 reservations.
126 are to owners with reservations after 3/31.

If you believe that at least half the reservations are after 3/31, than at least half of the owner reservations are after 3/31.
For all the owner reservations to be complete, doesn't the number of invites to owners with reservations after 3/31 have to roughly equal the number of invites to owners with 3/31 reservations ?

I think that the owner reservations made on 3/31 will be completed with this last batch, but we do have a few more batches to go before non-owner invites.

CJ
 
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  • Add white interior to the configurator

Here's my thoughts on the white interior vis a vis the other alternatives:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but there is no actual manufacturing delta to do a white interior vs a black one, is there? Short of possibly having a conveyance system capable of handling multiple options. There is no physical difference between the white and black interiors that the actual main assembly line would care about is there?

That assumption being true, the only reason I can see for not offering the white interior option is this:

Tesla's strategy for delivering 3s in high volume is to pre-build all options and start getting them out to the field and then match buyers with existing vehicles.

Adding another interior option (assuming demand for white vs black is roughly 50/50) would cut the potential number of vehicles to match a given buyer's preference in half. Add a cream option in and it's down to a third. Granted, there would be a bigger pool of buyers to draw from, so in the end it may not seem to make a difference, but when you are sending a train load of vehicles to a smaller, more specific market, you run the risk of running out of a specific configuration and having an excess of vehicles in another.

If this wasn't a concern in the first place, I don't see why they wouldn't have offered a white interior right from the start. But since that would apparently be the reason, I don't see that they would change direction on that until the volumes of cars coming out of the factory are at least 2-3 times higher, and in my opinion, not until they reach the 5K/week level.

Now the AWD & non-PUP reasoning is much the same, except now you also have added complexity in the manufacturing line itself that needs to be addressed. Although in the case of AWD you could make the argument that there would be strong geographical tendencies that would enable them to predict more confidently the ratios they would need to build out.

At any rate, I can't see them offering too many more options until they start to build a lot more inventory out (or until they shift to a build-to-order model, but with a mainstream vehicle, that doesn't seem likely until the backlog is down to a month or two).

But I do think the Canadian AWD play (and maybe ONLY AWD?) is a possibility. Of course I would expect them to release pricing information pretty soon if that's their intent.
 
I am not as optimistic as you guys are on the non-owner delivery date.

Here is my rational:

There have been 614 invites to owners reported to the spreadsheet.
488 of those are to owners with 3/31 reservations.
126 are to owners with reservations after 3/31.

If you believe that at least half the reservations are after 3/31, than at least half of the owner reservations are after 3/31.
Doesn't the number of invites to owners with reservations after 3/31 have to roughly equal the number of invites to owners with 3/31 reservations for all the owner reservations to be complete?

I think that we do have a few more batches to go before non-owner invites.

CJ

You have to also believe that you have an equal split among people contributing to the spreadsheet that reserved on 3/31 vs those that reserved after. Is that data you can tease out of the spreadsheet? According to the spreadsheet, what percentage of owners have not yet received invites and is there any indication that they haven't simply abandoned their spreadsheet contributions?

The counter-argument is that there are owners (not in CA IIRC) that reserved 5 days ago that have been invited to configure. If there are owners in line behind them, what's their story? Why are they behind the 2/10 reservationist?

Now I do think there are other reasonably reasons why non-owners will not see invites next including the Canada play or AWD (see my prior post about why I don't think it's adding other interior or non-PUP options), but I'm having a really hard time believing that it's because there are more owners out there that haven't been invited to configure.

If I was putting money on it though, I would say that non-owners will start seeing invites in the next batch. I was initially hoping that that batch would be the 2/14 batch (didn't figure they'd skip last week, but I guess because the 1/31 batch was only a week after the first that they are still maintaining an every 2 weeks average). I was also hoping that they would shift to an every week cadence (again, buoyed by the 1/31 batch), but more realistically thinking that 2/28 is going to be the first non-owner batch.
 
If you believe that at least half the reservations are after 3/31, than at least half of the owner reservations are after 3/31.

That assumes an equal distribution of owner reservation dates amongst non-owner reservation dates. That may not be the case since owners are likely more aware of Tesla, their cars, and offerings than the average car owner. They also got teaser information via email leading up to the announcement. Existing Tesla owners are also more aware of the reservation lines that Tesla gets. They (in general) would be more aware that if they registered after the first day, delivery dates would be pushed further back.

I would also add that it might also be likely that owners who reserved after 3/31 may be less likely to be posting here, so the data itself may also be skewed a little bit.

You could very well be right, though.

My own guess is that we'll start to see non-owner in anywhere from a few days to another week -- possibly two. However, I am mainly going based off of a gut feeling that is roughly based on data. It could be wishful thinking -- I reserved on 3/31 at 11:30am EST and my current LR estimate is Mar-May. I've seen that there have been reported invites sent out to owners with Mar-May estimates.