Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[cusman]

I completed my reservation on 6/30 and my estimated delivery shows Sep '18 - Nov '18

Hoping to get my Tesla 3 this year because that $7,500 Tax Credit incentive definitely factored into my decision to buy Tesla Model 3 as my next vehicle.

 

[psykobunny83]

I wonder how accurate these spreadsheets are. Not sure about anyone else, but I'm pretty sure once I finally take delivery that spreadsheet will be the last thing I care to look at or update lol.

 

[Ghostrider]

SpaceX employee, reserved on 3/25/16 configured on 7/11/18, got VIN 546xx on 7/17/18 LR/AWD/18/White. Email claims "Your Model 3 has finished production and your estimated delivery is just around the corner".

No delivery date yet.

Didn't expect it to turn around that quick.

 

[Nb1277]

Congrats @Ghostrider, glad to hear that! Awesome!

 

[dailo]

SpaceX employee, reserved on 3/25/16 configured on 7/11/18, got VIN 546xx on 7/17/18 LR/AWD/18/White. Email claims "Your Model 3 has finished production and your estimated delivery is just around the corner".

No delivery date yet.

Didn't expect it to turn around that quick.

Glad to see that it looks like the priority system is still intact. Looks like order for the AWD/P orders should be Employees > Reservation Date > Order Date and of course location.

 

[Oloron]

SpaceX employee, reserved on 3/25/16 configured on 7/11/18, got VIN 546xx on 7/17/18 LR/AWD/18/White. Email claims "Your Model 3 has finished production and your estimated delivery is just around the corner".

No delivery date yet.

Didn't expect it to turn around that quick.

You might want to start a separate thread to mention this. As far as I know you're the first person assigned an AWD VIN and given the amount of speculation still going on regarding when that might happen in other threads, it's not clear people have noticed. (Deferring to the mods, of course. The purpose for these consolidated threads is to avoid people spamming the boards with "I got a VIN!" threads. That said, "first assigned AWD VIN" would seem worth it's own thread.)

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

@Troy Here is what I am seeing in the spreadsheet lately. Wondering what you think of these observations:

1) New configurations are really low. Out of the 3,477 people that you have who reported a configuration, the rate was:
Feb/Mar/Apr (configuration limited) - 2,457 configured = 40 people per day.
May (configuration was not really open to most) - 116 configured = 7 per day.
June (config re-opened late in the month) - 835 configured = 28 per day.
July (open to everyone, as of 7/18) - 69 configured = 4 per day.
Last Week - (July 8 - 14) - 20 configured = 3 per day.
Are we looking at a situation where everyone who could order has ordered and forward demand rates could be much lower until we get the $35K version or there are a lot of test rides and other marketing?

2) Out of your sample, only ten participants ordered a Performance version in July. In total, only 98 (3%) have ordered P at any time. What do you think the long run market share percent of the P version will be?

 

[Troy]

@Sneakerbuddy,
I don't think demand is going to be a problem. $7,500 federal tax credits will continue until the end of this year. More people are going to place orders to get the car in time. After that, they can release the SR and then start production for Europe. Looking at S/X numbers, 49% of Tesla's sales are in the US.

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

@Sneakerbuddy,
I don't think demand is going to be a problem. $7,500 federal tax credits will continue until the end of this year. More people are going to place orders to get the car in time. After that, they can release the SR and then start production for Europe. Looking at S/X numbers, 49% of Tesla's sales are in the US.

But are my observations based on the data correct?
1) Performance model has very small market share. 3% of total orders for North America.
2) Configuration volume has really slowed down now that the original reservation demand has been satisfied and only higher priced cars are available. Latest configuration volume less than 10% of prior volume.
3) Returning to a prior discussion with you - I still dont see much uptick in deliveries on the spreadsheet. July looks a little higher than May but no way close to the volume expected with 4,000 per week production and 11,000 cars in transit as of 6/30 (per Tesla).

I am just trying to understand the spreadsheet and make sure my observations are supported by the facts.

 

[swaltner]

It’s a voluntary thing to enter data into the spreadsheet. Drawing conclusions about the actual demand based on the spreadsheet across inflection points (no reservation required to configure, 35k/50k/70k purchase prices) is problematic until we’ve had time and actual numbers from Tesla to recalibrate the expectations on participation in the spreadsheet.

I know I don’t expect the same percentage of people that waited for wide-open ordering before they clicked submit to participate in a tracking spreadsheet on a web site they’ve never heard about when comparing that to the percentage of those that waited in line in March 2016.

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

It’s a voluntary thing to enter data into the spreadsheet. Drawing conclusions about the actual demand based on the spreadsheet across inflection points (no reservation required to configure, 35k/50k/70k purchase prices) is problematic until we’ve had time and actual numbers from Tesla to recalibrate the expectations on participation in the spreadsheet.

I know I don’t expect the same percentage of people that waited for wide-open ordering before they clicked submit to participate in a tracking spreadsheet on a web site they’ve never heard about when comparing that to the percentage of those that waited in line in March 2016.

Would like to hear from Troy on the matter as he is the expert. He has been spot on with all his numbers until now.

But, even lower participation rates for more recent orders does not explain the lack of improved delivery results and the performance model percentages.

 

[Troy]

@Sneakerbuddy,

1&2) They are transitioning from clearing the reservation list to new buyers. The order page opened to the public a few days ago. Performance sales could reach 10% when things settle down. They have about 1,400 Performance orders and 6,400 non-Performance AWD orders. Let's wait until they start to deliver some of those cars and we start to see reviews on youtube. If you look at the table here, 7-10% for P would be normal.

Tesla is monitoring things closely and they are making adjustments. They unbundled the P options and lowered the price. The average sale price is now $55,800 and rising. This number is available on the 'Options and more' tab.

3) Deliveries are slow but July is still likely to be the best month ever with 7,500 or more deliveries. Let's wait until the conference call in 2 weeks to find out about the 11K in transit.

The best selling car in the US in this market segment was the Mercedes C-Class. You can see their monthly numbers here. The Model 3 is doing pretty well compared to the competition.

I think the Model 3's current state is similar to when Tesla launched the Model S P85D at the end of 2014. At the time, Model S sales rate was 31K/year. Journalists were continuously asking questions about demand and Elon kept saying demand is not a problem, we can increase demand at will, we have different demand levers to pull, we are not showing all of our cards, etc. A few months later, they released the facelift version, a few months after that Autopilot 2.0 and then the 90 kWh battery and then 100 kWh. They delivered more than 50K Model S every year after 2014. Therefore, I wouldn't worry about demand. With the Model 3, they already have a superior product that is the market leader in the US in its segment. Soon, Tesla is going to start outselling the Mercedes C-Class and BMW 3-Series combined.

 

[boriszima]

@Troy I like reading your posts. I bet you are having fun now predicting when we get our cars . What are you thoughts that Telsa will be able to deliver all P, AWD, RWD before end of the year to those that configured during "floodgate" ?

 

[hmerrill3]

I'm getting a little nervous. I configured AWD sport wheels on 6/28. Got a Sept.-Nov delivery timeframe. After a week or so I decided to change to Aero wheels. Tesla apparently treated my modification as a "new order" and put me at the back of the line. Now I show an Oct.-Dec delivery. If that slips to after the first of the year I am hosed on my incentive.

Based on my experience, a color change which pushed me to an October -December delivery, it should have no effect. Last week my delivery projection returned to the original August - October delivery that existed prior to configuration. The VIN issued today would seem to indicate delivery at the very beginning of the projected delivery window.

Hope you experience is similar.

 

[rdlink]

Based on my experience, a color change which pushed me to an October -December delivery, it should have no effect. Last week my delivery projection returned to the original August - October delivery that existed prior to configuration. The VIN issued today would seem to indicate delivery at the very beginning of the projected delivery window.

Hope you experience is similar.

Thanks. Yeah, my delivery timeframe returned to the Sept-Nov range about 5 days ago. The other thing that was making me nervous was the fact that, even though my order was originally made prior to July 1, the modification was made after July 1, and the sales order now shows the later date, even though it was only a modification. I was afraid I might lose the free lifetime enhanced maps/LTE. But I called customer service yesterday and they confirmed I was still eligible for it, since the original order was placed in time.

 

[hmerrill3]

Thanks. Yeah, my delivery timeframe returned to the Sept-Nov range about 5 days ago. The other thing that was making me nervous was the fact that, even though my order was originally made prior to July 1, the modification was made after July 1, and the sales order now shows the later date, even though it was only a modification. I was afraid I might lose the free lifetime enhanced maps/LTE. But I called customer service yesterday and they confirmed I was still eligible for it, since the original order was placed in time.

I was looking for written confirmation of the free lifetime enhanced data myself. My new ISA provided the link which confirms our expectations, configuration and payment prior to July 1 gets you the lifetime enhanced data and that is not lost with a color or wheel change.

Frequently Asked Questions - Connectivity

 

[Troy]

I added a new question to the form:

 

[Troy]

@boriszima,

When Tesla launched the new Model 3 web page on 12 July, the delivery estimates for new orders were longer but they updated them and made them shorter. That's a good sign that shows all current orders will be delivered by the end of the year. I think Tesla will launch a marketing campaign soon guaranteeing delivery by the end of the year if you order a P until, let's say, 30 Sep 2018.

Screenshot source: Click here, scroll down to the 'Specs' section, click 'Compare All'.

 

[rdlink]

I added a new question to the form:

Hi Troy. I am fine with inputting this information, but I'm not sure whether it has any real value. I know exactly why my edit button disappeared, and I can make it toggle back on and off very easily by changing from No Trade In to Trade In. I show a Sept-Nov delivery date, and I don't think a VIN is imminent for me.

 

[Troy]

@rdlink, I don't know what it means either. I will compare it to other dates to see if there is a correlation. This is an optional question.