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Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

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It looks like these orders are overlooked.
  • 4% of LR-AWD orders between 27-30 June without a reservation are processed
  • 52% of LR-AWD orders after 30 June without a reservation are processed
Why do you think those orders have been overlooked? How does something like that happen? Shouldn't everyone in the order queue from before Oct 15, be essentially guaranteed delivery by EOY?

My order is from Aug 13, no resv, silver LR-AWD, and I haven't heard a peep, other than last quarter's text msgs, still have an edit button. Just looking thru some threads, now you guys have me starting to worry. I'm in Maine, so I would probably need 2 months from production to delivery, cause they need to Home Deliver. If they're going to get me a car by EOY, they need to put a car in production soon, real soon!
 
Why do you think those orders have been overlooked?

Because these three percentages tell a story:
  • AWD orders placed between 27-30 June 2018 without the $1000 reservation are 0% complete. The tracker shows 4% but that's user error. It's actually zero. Some people who used to own a Tesla in the past were supposed to select former owner.
  • AWD orders placed after 30 June 2018 without the $1000 reservation are 52% complete.
  • AWD orders placed between 27-30 June 2018 with the $1000 reservation are 74% complete.
How does something like that happen?
It happens when somebody runs an incorrect database query to make a list to export from the web database to the production database. The database query should have been making a list of all AWD orders without a reservation but instead, it limits the list to all AWD orders without a reservation after 30 June. Why 30 June? Because 30 June is the day Tesla removed the reservation feature from their website. Somebody at Tesla is incorrectly assuming that because the reservation feature was removed on 30 June, nobody could order without a reservation before 30 June. That's incorrect. Tesla made the configurator public on 27 June and people could order without the $1000 reservation.

The problem originates from a misunderstanding of when the configurator went public for everybody. It went public for everybody on 27 June 2018 but somebody at Tesla thinks it was 30 June.

Shouldn't everyone in the order queue from before Oct 15, be essentially guaranteed delivery by EOY?
That's not the correct question. The correct question is, why are 52% of AWD orders without a reservation after 30 June already processed while 0% of orders before 30 June are? To understand this situation better, open the VIN Queue tab here and compare all the large tables.

Troy Teslike on Twitter
 
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How do we fix this?

Here’s another anecdote. I’m a Dec 2017 reservation holder and configured on June 27 once I read about it online. I was never invited by Tesla to order but configured when I heard online that it opened up to the public.
The odd thing is last week I got a call from the Devon service center saying that I needed to configure my car or else I might not be able to take advantage of the full fed tax credit. I told the person I already configured on June 27 and proceeded to tell him about Troy’s hypothesis that somehow there was a database error for non-reserved orders between June 27-30. I said maybe that’s what happened here (conflating the two categories of reservation and non-reservation). Then he looked further into my account and he said hmm.. actually I see in there that you configured on the 28th. (My order agreement document says the 27th but my manage->order summary->payments page says the 28th; don’t know why there is that discrepancy) In any case, I regret that that’s where we left it, still unsettled, since he was busy and found my order.

I don’t know what database he initially queried where he thought I hadn’t configured but I’m convinced this is a large error and it’s not enough to just twitter Elon’s account. Someone inside Tesla has to follow this tooth and nail! Please! Whoever is reading this from Tesla, please!

Now furthermore, as of a couple days ago, I have a 1000 dollar price adjustment (price reduction) in my account that I don’t know where it came from. Since I configured on June 27th, my pricing for AWD was already reduced to 4K above base LR but now it’s even less. Last week it was 60k for my car. This week, 59k for Blue, AWD, EAP, +1k doc and destination. So there is another database error that is propagating through; unless I misunderstand the intent of that price adjustment or it was a clerical error.

I’m going to call back the Devon phone on Monday.




Because these three percentages tell a story:
  • AWD orders placed between 27-30 June 2018 without the $1000 reservation are 0% complete. The tracker shows 4% but that's user error. It's actually zero. Some people who used to own a Tesla in the past were supposed to select former owner.
  • AWD orders placed after 30 June 2018 without the $1000 reservation are 52% complete.
  • AWD orders placed between 27-30 June 2018 with the $1000 reservation are 74% complete.

It happens when somebody runs an incorrect database query to make a list to export from the web database to the production database. The database query should have been making a list of all AWD orders without a reservation but instead, it limits the list to all AWD orders without a reservation after 30 June. Why 30 June? Because 30 June is the day Tesla removed the reservation feature from their website. Somebody at Tesla is incorrectly assuming that because the reservation feature was removed on 30 June, nobody could order without a reservation before 30 June. That's incorrect. Tesla made the configurator public on 27 June and people could order without the $1000 reservation.

The problem originates from a misunderstanding of when the configurator went public for everybody. It went public for everybody on 27 June 2018 but somebody at Tesla thinks it was 30 June.

That's not the correct question. The correct question is, why are 52% of AWD orders without a reservation after 30 June already processed while 0% of orders before 30 June are? To understand this situation better, open the VIN Queue tab here and compare all the large tables.
 
I had to cancel my 13AUG order. I reordered on 18OCT but with white interior (and no fsd because it wasn't listed anymore)
  • Long Range All-Wheel Drive
  • Solid Black Paint
  • 18’’ Aero Wheels
  • Black and White Premium Interior
  • Enhanced Autopilot
Hopefully I get it before the new year, otherwise I'll probably just cancel and buy used.
 
How do we fix this?

Here’s another anecdote. I’m a Dec 2017 reservation holder and configured on June 27 once I read about it online. I was never invited by Tesla to order but configured when I heard online that it opened up to the public.
The odd thing is last week I got a call from the Devon service center saying that I needed to configure my car or else I might not be able to take advantage of the full fed tax credit. I told the person I already configured on June 27 and proceeded to tell him about Troy’s hypothesis that somehow there was a database error for non-reserved orders between June 27-30. I said maybe that’s what happened here (conflating the two categories of reservation and non-reservation). Then he looked further into my account and he said hmm.. actually I see in there that you configured on the 28th. (My order agreement document says the 27th but my manage->order summary->payments page says the 28th; don’t know why there is that discrepancy) In any case, I regret that that’s where we left it, still unsettled, since he was busy and found my order.

I don’t know what database he initially queried where he thought I hadn’t configured but I’m convinced this is a large error and it’s not enough to just twitter Elon’s account. Someone inside Tesla has to follow this tooth and nail! Please! Whoever is reading this from Tesla, please!

Now furthermore, as of a couple days ago, I have a 1000 dollar price adjustment (price reduction) in my account that I don’t know where it came from. Since I configured on June 27th, my pricing for AWD was already reduced to 4K above base LR but now it’s even less. Last week it was 60k for my car. This week, 59k for Blue, AWD, EAP, +1k doc and destination. So there is another database error that is propagating through; unless I misunderstand the intent of that price adjustment or it was a clerical error.

I’m going to call back the Devon phone on Monday.
This seems like the sort of thing that @bonnie is able to help with since she has such tremendous credibility and contacts within Tesla.
It is amazing that this issue was recognized by @Troy a really long time ago and appears to remain unresolved. So easy to do another dB query and hand that output to production. (And, hurry!)
 
This seems like the sort of thing that @bonnie is able to help with since she has such tremendous credibility and contacts within Tesla.
It is amazing that this issue was recognized by @Troy a really long time ago and appears to remain unresolved. So easy to do another dB query and hand that output to production. (And, hurry!)
I'll forward this information to the right team. Thanks for pinging me :).
 
I also called the Devon service center today and spoke with a salesperson who politely listened to the story. Then she sent me an email so that I could reply to her address with the teslamotorsclub link and info. I replied with special attention to post 1203 and she said she would look into it. I have high hopes for this avenue too because she really appreciated the consequences.

Thanks Troy!

I'll forward this information to the right team. Thanks for pinging me :).
 
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Overlooked AWD Orders Issue Explained

Hi, everybody. Here is an image that explains the issue. There is a problem with the earliest LR-AWD & P orders by non-reservation holders. They aren't receiving VINs or delivery dates.
  • Only 5% of LR-AWD orders between 27-30 June without a reservation are processed
  • However, 55% of LR-AWD orders after 30 June without a reservation are processed

This issue affects all LR-AWD & P orders placed between 27-30 June 2018 without the $1,000 reservation. Those that ordered between 27-30 June with the $1,000 reservation are fine. They don't have any issues. They are shown in a different table. For more details, open the VIN Queue tab HERE, scroll to the right and compare all large tables.

By the way, I have tweeted about this issue here on 15 Sep when it was 4% vs 32%, then here on 20 Sep when at 4% vs 43%, then here on 1st Oct at 4% vs 50%, and finally today here at 5% vs 55%.

JFjunWe.gif


Feel free to retweet this: Troy Teslike on Twitter
 
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VIN: 749xx
LR AWD White/White 18"Aero EAP FSD
Config date 9/13/2018
Pickup date scheduled: 11/12/2018
Previous owner: no
Reservation holder: no (technically I was a reservation holder and unknowingly created a separate res and ordered off that--refunded my $1k after placing the other order)
Location: Charlotte, NC

Spreadsheet updated
 
Overlooked AWD Orders Issue Explained

Hi, everybody. Here is an image that explains the issue. There is a problem with the earliest LR-AWD & P orders by non-reservation holders. They aren't receiving VINs or delivery dates.
  • Only 5% of LR-AWD orders between 27-30 June without a reservation are processed
  • However, 55% of LR-AWD orders after 30 June without a reservation are processed

@Troy do you anticipate that the processed % will go to 100% or is there a baseline assumption for people who just forget to fill out the form when they get their delivery? Apologies if asked before.
 
@Troy do you anticipate that the processed % will go to 100% or is there a baseline assumption for people who just forget to fill out the form when they get their delivery?

17% of AWD buyers are not updating their data. The actual percentages are more like 5% vs 64% instead of 5% vs 55%. I will start removing incomplete entries next week, starting with the P version. If somebody comes back and enters their data, the entry will automatically re-appear.

You might say, how do you know whether somebody forgot to update their data or whether they are still waiting. Let me explain. If you go to the VINs tab and look at column R here, you can see that LR-AWD buyers who have been waiting more than 100 days are still reporting back now. In fact, this week VINs after 111-115 days is the most popular option for this group. Even if some people were forgetting to update their data, not 100% would forget. Therefore we would still see some VINs reported after 100 days. This is what's happening here for LR-AWD.

However, if you now look at P orders, there are zero VINs reported after 35 days. Therefore this group is in fact finished excluding those who ordered in the last 35 days. I will start removing incomplete P entries next week when the VINs tab, columns P and R show zero 100+ day VINs.
 
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17% of AWD buyers are not updating their data. The actual percentages are more like 5% vs 64% instead of 5% vs 55%. I will start removing incomplete entries next week, starting with the P version. If somebody comes back and enters their data, the entry will automatically re-appear.

You might say, how do you know whether somebody forgot to update their data or whether they are still waiting. Let me explain. If you go to the VINs tab and look at column R here, you can see that LR-AWD buyers who have been waiting more than 100 days are still reporting back now. In fact, this week VINs after 111-115 days is the most popular option for this group. Even if some people were forgetting to update their data, not 100% would forget. Therefore we would still see some VINs reported after 100 days. This is what's happening here for LR-AWD.

However, if you now look at P orders, there are zero VINs reported after 35 days. Therefore this group is in fact finished excluding those who ordered in the last 35 days. I will start removing incomplete P entries next week when the VINs tab, columns P and R show zero 100+ day VINs.

Got it.. fascinating stuff. Thanks for doing this, it is a wealth of information.
 
I had to cancel my 13AUG order. I reordered on 18OCT but with white interior (and no fsd because it wasn't listed anymore)
  • Long Range All-Wheel Drive
  • Solid Black Paint
  • 18’’ Aero Wheels
  • Black and White Premium Interior
  • Enhanced Autopilot
Hopefully I get it before the new year, otherwise I'll probably just cancel and buy used.

Can you verify how you reordered ?? What steps did you follow ?
 
I haven't looked into this too much, but will add that I ordered a

Black RWD LR Model 3 with EAP, 18"
Vin is in the 56.9k range manufactured in July
Ordered on 9/12/18 and picking up in Dallas 9/27/18. Day 1 reservation holder.
Most of the wait was due to my bank taking a week.

I was told it was not a showroom or test drive car, but was still wondering why I got a 3 month old vin for my car.
Should I be concerned about that? I plan to have my checklist and look over it extensively on Saturday.

I don't know if it was rejected or reworked which was my main concern after getting answers on the other part. Most of the vins near mine were sold in August. I didn't add it to the chart.
 
I haven't looked into this too much, but will add that I ordered a

Black RWD LR Model 3 with EAP, 18"
Vin is in the 56.9k range manufactured in July
Ordered on 9/12/18 and picking up in Dallas 9/27/18. Day 1 reservation holder.
Most of the wait was due to my bank taking a week.

I was told it was not a showroom or test drive car, but was still wondering why I got a 3 month old vin for my car.
Should I be concerned about that? I plan to have my checklist and look over it extensively on Saturday.

I don't know if it was rejected or reworked which was my main concern after getting answers on the other part. Most of the vins near mine were sold in August. I didn't add it to the chart.

Most likely the reason is the demand for RWD was substantially fulfilled 3 months ago when they started the AWD production and the VIN allocation reports show a huge shift to producing mostly AWD cars, so your car most likely is new as they say, but 3 months old as they had enough inventory built up to switch over almost exclusively to AWD cars. It's also why you are able to take delivery so quickly after ordering.
 
Can you verify how you reordered ?? What steps did you follow ?
i went to the site, clicked model3, put in an order..

as a side note:
order date: 18OCT18
delivery confirmation email date: 24OCT18
Delivery Date: 11/18/2018 @3:30PM <--according to email (probably subject to change)

UPDATE:

Just called Tesla because my app isn't working since the original cancellation. The guy told me I have a VIN assigned, but that company policy prohibits him from sharing it with me due to privacy reasons... WUT? Hopefully my IDA can give it to me tomorrow. As it stands though, ill update the tracker with vin assigned and the delivery date and just fill the vin in once i know it.
 
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