Model 3 positioning and marketing

[efusco]

Not sure why I just had the thought today, but I did...

The Model S was more than twice what I ever expected to spend on a new car. I love it, am enjoying having a car people look at, the performance, all that. But it's still a tough pill to swallow the cost for what is, primarily, a tool for me. But I will have the car at least another 5 years I think...potentially longer. By then the Model 3 should be a reality and maybe even a Model 3 cross-over variant of some type that is really back into my preferred target car budget (I'll have 2 in college and a 3rd starting soon at that point).

So I'm wondering this...Can a guy go backward from a Model S to a Model 3? I'm in an S85, and don't really care about 0-60 in 2.6 seconds, but I do want spirited (0-60 in 5 seconds makes me happy). Will the Model 3 be fast enough, luxurious enough, and have enough range that someone like me would be willing to step down to a Model 3 from a Model S or will they position even the top end Model 3 to discourage that and maintain the Model S crowd in that higher end luxury market spot?

I ask because if I can get a comparable range, 0-60 in 5 seconds, with somewhat comparable tech and luxury features in the $50k range, esp. since I won't have as much need for the room as I do with a family of 5 now, then I'd be heavily inclined to 'step down' to that vehicle.

 

[1208]

I agree. I was also wondering if some would choose 2x model 3's over 1 model S.

 

[Zwalderon]

Not sure why I just had the thought today, but I did...

The Model S was more than twice what I ever expected to spend on a new car. I love it, am enjoying having a car people look at, the performance, all that. But it's still a tough pill to swallow the cost for what is, primarily, a tool for me. But I will have the car at least another 5 years I think...potentially longer. By then the Model 3 should be a reality and maybe even a Model 3 cross-over variant of some type that is really back into my preferred target car budget (I'll have 2 in college and a 3rd starting soon at that point).

So I'm wondering this...Can a guy go backward from a Model S to a Model 3? I'm in an S85, and don't really care about 0-60 in 2.6 seconds, but I do want spirited (0-60 in 5 seconds makes me happy). Will the Model 3 be fast enough, luxurious enough, and have enough range that someone like me would be willing to step down to a Model 3 from a Model S or will they position even the top end Model 3 to discourage that and maintain the Model S crowd in that higher end luxury market spot?

I ask because if I can get a comparable range, 0-60 in 5 seconds, with somewhat comparable tech and luxury features in the $50k range, esp. since I won't have as much need for the room as I do with a family of 5 now, then I'd be heavily inclined to 'step down' to that vehicle.

Of course, the public doesn't know for sure yet. The question you ask has been the subject of some considerable controversy. However, judging by demonstrated technology and corporate integrity, I believe the Model III will be a very compelling vehicle. I can't say if it will satisfy your requirements either practically or aesthetically, but I can tell that you're open to it, as am I.

 

[preilly44]

I am hoping the same thing. We currently have a P85D and a VW E-Golf. We are hoping to get rid of both and get two well spec'd M3's. Hopefully AWD performance versions with a big battery.

 

[ryanjm]

Will the Model 3 be fast enough, luxurious enough, and have enough range that someone like me would be willing to step down to a Model 3 from a Model S or will they position even the top end Model 3 to discourage that and maintain the Model S crowd in that higher end luxury market spot?.

I'm very confident that performance and range won't be an issue on Model 3 relative to Model S (I've long said that I expect Model 3 to top out at about 300 EPA miles on the big battery and Model S will get a 400-mile pack option around the same time). I think it's the "luxurious enough" question that could go either way. I am hoping to be able to option my Model 3 up high enough where it has most/all of the S's luxury trimmings. But we shall see.

 

[aronth5]

Definitely agree that many Model S owners will "go backwards" to a 3. One example will be early Model S owners who will replace the Model S with the Model 3 to take advantage of auto-pilot. Since they cannot retro-fit their Model S with the needed AP hardware and don't want to spend the money for a new Model S it will be a logical decision to buy an optioned Model 3.

 

[dirkhh]

Interesting thought. I'm sure some will do that. But overall I think that this will just broaden the customer base. I don't think I'd want my daughters (11 now) to learn to drive in a Model S. But getting them a Model 3? Hmm. That sounds like a great idea. It's very likely to be an extremely safe car...

 

[ImEric]

I believe that the 3 is sure to cannibalize some of the Model S sales, just as the X has surely taken some sales away from the S. But it will probably come primarily from people like yourself who have other mounting expenses and want the best car money can buy... but just for a lot less money. People who are stretching out to get a low-optioned S70, will probably opt for a better optioned 3 in a couple of years, but I don't see this as a problem. It's just like BMW has their 3 series and they're great cars. They're somewhat luxurious, they perform well and they're nimble, energy-efficient vehicles. But BMW still sales plenty of 4, 5 and 7 series as well. They'll probably do a large update to the S when the 3 comes out to further differentiate the two cars. Maybe a 100 kwh battery, something like that. Maybe they'll give the S new seats again. No wood grain for the 3... there will be something to differentiate the two and supposedly justify the heftier price tag on the S.

As a full sized Sedan, the S definitely has it's place, and that place will simply become more refined and distinguished once Tesla introduces an entry-level vehicle. With that in mind, I think it would make a lot of sense to downsize to a 3 (especially if all of your kids are in college and you just want something smaller, more nimble, etc.) to take advantage of 2017 technology vs 2012 technology.

 

[efusco]

I am hoping the same thing. We currently have a P85D and a VW E-Golf. We are hoping to get rid of both and get two well spec'd M3's. Hopefully AWD performance versions with a big battery.

Yea, that would be great...if I could get near 300 miles, AP, well speced out, that would be awesome and I'll keep the extra $40k for retirement!

 

[tga]

If I was in the market for a BMW, I would take a 3 over a 5 any day. Not so much to save money, but because the 5 is just too darn big. Even if I had money to burn, I wouldn't look at a 7. I'm a "sports car guy" not a "luxury car guy."

If I had the choice of a 3 or an S (assuming similar performance and range), I'd likely take the 3, just for a smaller car. Lower cost is just an added bonus. :wink:

 

[Kevin Harney]

I think I am a bit odd here but here are my thoughts.

In short, I do not think it will be a step backwards for you. I believe, unlike others, that the Model S has its own place and the Model 3 will too. I do not believe that Tesla will dumb down the Model 3 to allow the Model S to win. Actually I believe that the Model 3 will come out with new technologies that the Model S and X do not have now (but may be added as they are added to the 3). Range will only improve over time for all cars so I think a 300 mile range on the 3 will be a given at the higher end. I also believe that since the Model 3 is smaller and lighter and more nimble that it will surely out perform the Model S and X just as the BMW 3 out performs the 5 and 7. Model S is a BIG sedan like the BMW 6 and 7. But Unlike BMW and all the other big car companies I do not believe that Tesla will try to force its buyers into a Model S for the new technology. Tesla is all about tech and they will take full advantage of that in all of their cars. Will it all be standard in the lower cars - probably not - but it will be available. They need to leverage all of their R&D and the tech is what will set them apart from the competition. Many years ago I said that if Tesla wants to play with the big boys in the luxury car market that they would have to get in the game and add the luxuries that the other car makers have. Now, not only have they done that but they are leading the field. I am fairly confident that this trend will continue.

Of course, I may be a bit biased as I am looking for a loaded Model 3. But I do believe my thoughts have good merit as well. I think the Model 3 will top out about $80-85K fully loaded. Just as the BMW M3 does.

 

[Josh the German]

Hello from Germany,

I think the Model 3 will get the best technique possible. Elon always tries to implement the highest state of the art. Sure, he has to earn money. But first of all there is the unshiftable ideology to create a "must-have" attitude that a fast growing number of customers buy EV's, his EV's. Of course there will be a steady improvement of the S. The "must-have" effect has to be kept. But I'm determined that the 3 will be a milestone.

Best regards from Germany

Josh

 

[GoTslaGo]

Waiting on the 3 to decide whether the next car should be the X or the 3/Y. Planning next purchase/change in 2018 as my ICE will be 5 years at that point.

Do not believe Tesla will dumb down 3 to appease/attract S buyers. Heck they're the only auto maker to update your car without additional charges.

If anything, as others have posted. The S and X will have their technologies updated by the 3/Y.

 

[omarsultan]

I can imagine the P version of the Model 3 will be a blast to drive--keeping with Model S torque and low CoG but with 20% less weight should yield some killer dynamics.

 

[[email protected]]

A quick note: we are driving a rental 328i while model S 41448 is at the service center. Yikes: if a 328i is the target for 3, Tesla is aiming low. The BMW's engine turns off at stops, and then re-starts with a little shudder each time like a wet dog shaking itself. The panel is buttons galore in the center and then another switch cluster on the left of the steering wheel, and then a switch cluster and multi function toggle in the center. Looks to me to be a carryover from the 90s. A weird screen sticks out of the top of the dash as if it is an after thought. The engine is a turbo 4, and the difference between the S instant response and the BMW lag is pronounced. The engine noise is loud and sounds synthetic to me. Only thing I like about the car is the turn in when cornering which seems to be a little more eager than the S which is very good esp for such a heavy car. Looking forward to the 3.

 

[Model3G]

Not sure why I just had the thought today, but I did...

The Model S was more than twice what I ever expected to spend on a new car. I love it, am enjoying having a car people look at, the performance, all that. But it's still a tough pill to swallow the cost for what is, primarily, a tool for me. But I will have the car at least another 5 years I think...potentially longer. By then the Model 3 should be a reality and maybe even a Model 3 cross-over variant of some type that is really back into my preferred target car budget (I'll have 2 in college and a 3rd starting soon at that point).

So I'm wondering this...Can a guy go backward from a Model S to a Model 3? I'm in an S85, and don't really care about 0-60 in 2.6 seconds, but I do want spirited (0-60 in 5 seconds makes me happy). Will the Model 3 be fast enough, luxurious enough, and have enough range that someone like me would be willing to step down to a Model 3 from a Model S or will they position even the top end Model 3 to discourage that and maintain the Model S crowd in that higher end luxury market spot?

I ask because if I can get a comparable range, 0-60 in 5 seconds, with somewhat comparable tech and luxury features in the $50k range, esp. since I won't have as much need for the room as I do with a family of 5 now, then I'd be heavily inclined to 'step down' to that vehicle.

Assuming that your Model S is perfect in all respects I THINK this is what you will be looking at from a factual standpoint:
1.) 20% smaller. A lot of speculation has come up about the size, and whatever that percentage actually is it will be smaller than what you are driving now. However that will still bring you 4 doors.
2.) It will accelerate slower than 2.6 (depending on the pack and extras that you may add...at an extra cost)
3.) Luxurious enough is hard to answer. IMO Tesla has never been the luxury vehicle on the road. That being said, I think depending on your preference you can add on whatever interior extras that will tickle your fancy. Typically in my experience, the more you expect in the ways of luxury the more you will pay.
4.) Your range will be AT LEAST 200 real world miles and this is at the base of the options for the model 3. you would be getting that comparable range.
Here comes the speculation:
You will be getting a great vehicle at $35K, but in order to get it somewhere comparable to your S now, you will have to pay. Although you will have 4 doors, interior spacing is a variable. You could be looking at the same passenger cargo area and all the loss in size is in the trunk/frunk. Whatever the loss, it will not be in whatever makes your Tesla the safest vehicle on the road. Nothing I know can tell you definitely about what that price will be, but I think you could easily spend more than $50K on the Model 3 for what you are looking for. In reality your difference in price being only $15K, you might find that going over $50K will be easier than expected.

 

[dirkhh]

Waiting on the 3 to decide whether the next car should be the X or the 3/Y. Planning next purchase/change in 2018 as my ICE will be 5 years at that point.

Do not believe Tesla will dumb down 3 to appease/attract S buyers. Heck they're the only auto maker to update your car without additional charges.

I don't think the question is whether they'll do such a thing to make sure people keep buying the Model S. With a margin target of 2x% there is no way they can match Model S features in a sub $45k car. So the car will be less luxurious (maybe I should have said "even less luxurious") and have more compromises. And since Elon doesn't want to compromise on range the compromises will be things like seat quality and comfort, amount of leather trim, smaller screens, maybe no AP hardware in the base model, etc.

 

[Twiglett]

I also have the mindset that they will not dumb down the 3.
The whole purpose of this car is be a compelling EV that will encourage lots of people to buy into an EV because its a great car.
You can't do that by worrying about how it fits into some mythical model range like the "big three".
The reason the Model S exists at all is to be part of the cunning plan, on that basis, the Model 3 will be as technologically advanced as its pricing will allow, without any concern for stepping on toes.

 

[Josh the German]

The whole purpose of this car is be a compelling EV that will encourage lots of people to buy into an EV because its a great car.

That's it .... :smile:

Regards from Germany

Josh

 

[Candleflame]

A quick note: we are driving a rental 328i while model S 41448 is at the service center. Yikes: if a 328i is the target for 3, Tesla is aiming low. The BMW's engine turns off at stops, and then re-starts with a little shudder each time like a wet dog shaking itself. The panel is buttons galore in the center and then another switch cluster on the left of the steering wheel, and then a switch cluster and multi function toggle in the center. Looks to me to be a carryover from the 90s. A weird screen sticks out of the top of the dash as if it is an after thought. The engine is a turbo 4, and the difference between the S instant response and the BMW lag is pronounced. The engine noise is loud and sounds synthetic to me. Only thing I like about the car is the turn in when cornering which seems to be a little more eager than the S which is very good esp for such a heavy car. Looking forward to the 3.

The BMWs engine turns itself off at stops to save gas. Awesome feature as you don't have to do it manually when you stop. The energy needed to restart the engines is recaptured through regenerative breaking. Bmws steering wheel buttons work great, although im more of a fan of the old buttons they used in the early 2000s. Bmws Idrive is much better than what Mercedes has got. Obviously feels weird going from a Tesla LCD dash to the bmw's analogue dash, but that was a style decision bmw has made (their meters have hardly changed the last 50 years) which they are now changing to digital afaik with the new BMW 7 series.