Model 3 price drop in 2020 [Speculation]

[Gize]

So I've been watching Model 3 price changes as my current lease winds to an end over the last year or so. I've noticed that every time the Tax credit drops a few weeks later the Model 3 price magically drops as well.

I have a little less than three months left on my lease and deliveries seem to be out at least a month. Should I be expecting a price drop right in time for me to order my model 3 in a few weeks?

Thoughts? Opinions?

Thanks,

-gize

 

[Adam3]

*checks crystal ball*

Yes

 

[kbecks13]

I have a little less than three months left on my lease and deliveries seem to be out at least a month. Should I be expecting a price drop right in time for me to order my model 3 in a few weeks?

That's perfect timing, we should know in a few weeks time. I think Tesla has a few things up their sleeve for Q1 2020 to deal with the loss in tax credit (Model Y, Model 3 new Track Package, maybe S/X refresh etc.)

 

[garth_angst]

So I've been watching Model 3 price changes as my current lease winds to an end over the last year or so. I've noticed that every time the Tax credit drops a few weeks later the Model 3 price magically drops as well.

I have a little less than three months left on my lease and deliveries seem to be out at least a month. Should I be expecting a price drop right in time for me to order my model 3 in a few weeks?

Thoughts? Opinions?

Thanks,

-gize

I wouldn't count on a price drop, but I wouldn't let that hold me back from a purchase.

 

[Celeritas]

So I've been watching Model 3 price changes as my current lease winds to an end over the last year or so. I've noticed that every time the Tax credit drops a few weeks later the Model 3 price magically drops as well.

I have a little less than three months left on my lease and deliveries seem to be out at least a month. Should I be expecting a price drop right in time for me to order my model 3 in a few weeks?

Thoughts? Opinions?

Thanks,

-gize

I would think so, as the tax credit was a big push for Q4 orders, but we won't know for certain until next month, obviously.

 

[Gize]

That's perfect timing, we should know in a few weeks time. I think Tesla has a few things up their sleeve for Q1 2020 to deal with the loss in tax credit (Model Y, Model 3 new Track Package, maybe S/X refresh etc.)

I hope you are right kbecks. I agree on "up their sleeve" news I'm guessing will be around the battery. But I have been waiting so long, it will be hard to wait past Q1. Just hoping to whatever happens, happens soon, if anything...

 

[OUengineer]

I think going forward for Tesla to continue to sell cars at the volume they want, one of the following three things needs to happen.

1. New generation release
2. Add features/update existing models with new options/styling/refresh
3. Price drop

Price drop is the easiest of these to do.

In general, I would almost compare these vehicles to computers and TV's of the past in that, the technology is going to continually be getting better/cheaper and if you keep waiting for the next thing or another price drop, you'll never actually buy because there will always be something around the corner. (Having said that, I think another price drop early next year is a good bet and that would likely be as good an entry point as any).

 

[jboy210]

Given your timeframe I would order soon after the New Year. There may be a price drop and you may be able to get applied to your order if you have not yet picked it up.

 

[jjrandorin]

So I've been watching Model 3 price changes as my current lease winds to an end over the last year or so. I've noticed that every time the Tax credit drops a few weeks later the Model 3 price magically drops as well.

I have a little less than three months left on my lease and deliveries seem to be out at least a month. Should I be expecting a price drop right in time for me to order my model 3 in a few weeks?

Thoughts? Opinions?

Thanks,

-gize

you should expect a price drop somewhere around 1k or so, which would counter balance the 1k in price increases that have happened since the beginning of October this year.

TL ; DR, I predict there will be a "price drop" back to the same prices that were in effect most of last year, but people will forget all about the price increases and start saying "I told you all so" regarding the "price drop".

 

[cbaaz]

I think going forward for Tesla to continue to sell cars at the volume they want, one of the following three things needs to happen.

1. New generation release
2. Add features/update existing models with new options/styling/refresh
3. Price drop

Price drop is the easiest of these to do.

In general, I would almost compare these vehicles to computers and TV's of the past in that, the technology is going to continually be getting better/cheaper and if you keep waiting for the next thing or another price drop, you'll never actually buy because there will always be something around the corner. (Having said that, I think another price drop early next year is a good bet and that would likely be as good an entry point as any).

I think #2 might be easier with “discount” on software unlocks of overpriced features (e.g. FSD).

 

[WilliamG]

I wouldn't expect much of a price drop. I don't know the numbers, but there's waaaay more to the Model 3 than just sales in the USA. The rest of the world is unlikely to get a price drop, so...

I would imagine Tesla would like to get pricing stable as soon as possible to maintain a degree of confidence in their product pricing. That would alleviate second-thoughts like in this thread.

Anyway, just speculation. I'd say perhaps a $1000 price drop just to make people think they're getting a better price (despite Tesla having "manipulated" pricing to raise the cost somewhat over the last few months, just to drop them again in January).

 

[tivoboy]

Given that the most recent tax credit was $1850, I’m going to say I doubt we see an equal $1850 drop in retail pricing. I guess we’ll see soon into 2020.

 

[KJD]

That's perfect timing, we should know in a few weeks time. I think Tesla has a few things up their sleeve for Q1 2020 to deal with the loss in tax credit (Model Y, Model 3 new Track Package, maybe S/X refresh etc.)

An early start to producing the Model Y would certainly create a lot of buzz around the Tesla name and that would take some of the sting out of losing the tax credit. Myself I would really like to have a 2 Tesla household and just get rid of the last gas car that we have now. A new Model Y would make that a lot easier to accomplish.

 

[tashtibet]

Tesla as a brand has been established. There is no demand problem. Almost all the Wall ST TSLA Bearish are now Bullish -TSLA stock $430. If you want an EV don't speculate, take a dive & enjoy the ride. Elon said owning a Tesla is an Appreciating Asset-indeed!

 

[WilliamG]

Tesla as a brand has been established. There is no demand problem. Almost all the Wall ST TSLA Bearish are now Bullish -TSLA stock $430. If you want an EV don't speculate, take a dive & enjoy the ride. Elon said owning a Tesla is an Appreciating Asset-indeed!

Yep, with all the updates I've gotten since delivery in May, I definitely appreciate my car more.

 

[eevee-fan]

Doubt it would drop due to loss of Fed Tax Credit. Tesla just raised the price by $500 this month.

More likely when they start using the new battery chemistry that promises to be longer lasting and cheaper to make.

Tesla patents new chemistry for better, longer-lasting and cheaper batteries - Electrek

 

[Celeritas]

Doubt it would drop due to loss of Fed Tax Credit. Tesla just raised the price by $500 this month.

More likely when they start using the new battery chemistry that promises to be longer lasting and cheaper to make.

Tesla patents new chemistry for better, longer-lasting and cheaper batteries - Electrek

And then they dropped the price again...

 

[jjrandorin]

you should expect a price drop somewhere around 1k or so, which would counter balance the 1k in price increases that have happened since the beginning of October this year.

TL ; DR, I predict there will be a "price drop" back to the same prices that were in effect most of last year, but people will forget all about the price increases and start saying "I told you all so" regarding the "price drop".

EDIT: also there is another thread with this exact same topic, thats 4 pages. OP, here is more speculation for you to read, should you so be inclined (and I am guessing you are, since you started this thread).

2020 Price Drop? [Speculation]

 

[OUengineer]

I think #2 might be easier with “discount” on software unlocks of overpriced features (e.g. FSD).

I was thinking more along the lines of better battery tech or faster charging, features like HUD or power liftgate, special paint or unique interior trims, etc. For the Performance, you could do a special suspension and aggressive body kit too along with unique interior or paint choices.

I think FSD stays as an expensive high profit option for awhile longer.

 

[OCR1]

It certainly appears likely that Tesla will sell out of all remaining North American inventory by year end. If the production cycle remains consistent, they will build cars for international locations in January and February. That leaves plenty of time for them to gauge US demand going into 2020. If demand looks sluggish I could see a price drop coming around March when US inventory begins flowing again.