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Model 3 price drop in 2020 [Speculation]

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Yeah I totally agree too, there will always be a better version right around the corner so there is no perfect time to buy. However in my situation I might end up kicking myself if I get too impatient. I think what I'll do is wait till the end of January and if no price changes happen I'll just go for it. I know I am going to love the car either way. Then the trick will be timing it right with my delivery date and current car lease return. Might be giving my wife the princess treatment dropping her off and picking her up if I have to borrow her car haha.

Be happy that you can get AP for free now! I ordered my M3 shortly before, and feel kinda crappy about that. Really don't want to shell out 3k for something with minimal value.
 
Elon said...

My Model 3 Performance cost $71k in Oct 2018 ($83k with tax) and then I spent another $2k on FSD (I had EAP before), yet would sell today for about $51k

The only way it will ever be appreciating is if Tesla starts to charge $40k for FSD in the future.

Elon is a salesman, I like him a lot for what he has done for the space and car industry, but he is still a salesman who is trying to sell his product and justify the price.

I dont think anyone has ever thought Tesla cars would be worth more later than on the day of sale, that doesnt make any sense, its not a limited production vehicle, half of the car's cost is a rapidly depreciating assets (battery/paintjob/wheels/suspension)... the only cars that are worth more at a later time are limited edition, one of a kinds. The only way it could ever happen to Tesla is if the company folded, then Tesla would maybe be the next DeLorean 40 years from now. BUT even that is unlikely as the car is so tied into software and reliance of that software's connection to the mothership that if Tesla folded who knows what the cars would become without software updates/maintenance etc... at that point the supercharger network would go away as well... which would not help the car's value.

With several new factories coming online in the near future, the number of Teslas on the roads will keep increasing at a rapid pace. At certain point it becomes like buying a house in Texas, why buy a used one, if a new ones are a plenty.

Lastly, Tesla still has model years, they dont super advertise it, but things improve as time goes on. Right now a 2013 Model S seems like a much more inferior car than even a 2019 Model S. Which explains why you can get a 2013 Model S with 40k miles for $30k, 1/3 of its initial value. Which is about the same depreciation as a 2013 Mercedes C300 AMG has had.
 
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No need to drop the price now as the current builds are not even for the US. Now if by late Feb they don't have the orders they want they can play with price or add incentives to boost sales. I'm still torn on a used PS or new P3, but, I'll know within a few months which way I'm going LOL!

Get the P3, it is much more nimble and fun to drive. Most folks who have a P3 and get a loaner S want their M3 back ASAP. The M3P is already a porker at 4072 lbs but the Model S performance at 4941lbs is just too darn heavy.
 
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Main variable in this crash example really is newer car vs older car.
Do one with a 2020 model car @ 3600lb vs 2020 Model S @ 4900lb. Then one with the same 2020 model car vs the 2020 Model 3 @4000lb.

Doesn't matter - point still stands. Weight is not the sole determinant of the survivability of a crash. In fact, given the above, it's far from it. Engineering matters.
 
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