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Model 3 "Production Bottlenecks" lead to lower-than-anticipated Q3 delivery #s

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The window was 3 mos so being behind is still within the window. Maybe it's on purpose to make sure we don't hit 200k until Jan where we have a full 3 mos.

We're in no danger of hitting 200,000 *domestically delivered* units until probably Q2/Q3 of next year, depending upon how Elon chooses the mix during those 6 months.

Ideally, he hits unit 200,000 upon day 1 of Q1, which would then allow a full HALF-YEAR of maximum domestic production with every unit qualifying for the full federal tax credit.

I don't know how much he cares at this point - it's been 18 months and we still don't know what the line-waiters' premium will be, let alone any visibility into production targets. See "production hell" for probably every bit of his current focus, outside of getting to Mars, tunneling under Hawthorne city limits, lighting up a good chunk of Australia, and furthering success at the Buffalo (solar) gigafactory.
 
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Can I please request that the Moderator rename this thread more appropriately to "Hand Wringers Anonymous"?

And possibly merge the other 17 with the same content into this one?

kthxby

RT

Anyone who was witness to the Model S production ramp will agree with the above.

People awaiting their Model 3 delivery should expect a lot of pain!
 
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Really nothing new here...
The Roadster was way late for production.
Model S struggled to make projections.
The X was delayed due to the Falcon Wing Door supplier issues (among others)
Now the Model E is not coming out as fast as Elon had hoped.

Stepping back, things have usually sorted themselves out in short order, with customers being delighted at the final product, even though delivery was usually slower than hoped.

Looking at the wide view, Tesla has never turned out more volume in vehicles and income. They are way up Year over Year. Growing much faster than other vehicle manufacturer as well as setting the standards for changing personal transportation from fossil fuels to all electric.
 
LIke the Model X - once they resolve the initial production issues - things will start to move pretty quickly. I remember dire predictions about the X and then all of a sudden - the invitations to configure really started flowing. I am hopeful and believe that when they resolve whatever the initial issues are - production rates will be in line with Elon's articulated expectations.
 
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Anyone who was witness to the Model S production ramp will agree with the above.

People awaiting their Model 3 delivery should expect a lot of pain!

Actually, the Model S production is a good case in point. The people waiting for their signature cars went through a lot of pain waiting months with little info. On the other hand, when I reserved in October 2012 (about 3 months into the ramp) I was told I probably wouldn't get my car until the following summer. I got it in February. The early ramp doesn't really foretell the later ramp.
 
Really nothing new here...
The Roadster was way late for production.
Model S struggled to make projections.
The X was delayed due to the Falcon Wing Door supplier issues (among others)
Now the Model E is not coming out as fast as Elon had hoped.

Stepping back, things have usually sorted themselves out in short order, with customers being delighted at the final product, even though delivery was usually slower than hoped.

Looking at the wide view, Tesla has never turned out more volume in vehicles and income. They are way up Year over Year. Growing much faster than other vehicle manufacturer as well as setting the standards for changing personal transportation from fossil fuels to all electric.
So they didn't learn from the other models?
 
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