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Model 3 "Production Bottlenecks" lead to lower-than-anticipated Q3 delivery #s

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Who would have guessed Garlan would appear with four negative posts in a row in this thread . . .

My dates have yet to move in My Tesla. We'll see how it ends up though. I may have to get a "funner" interim vehicle, as this Accord is killing my soul.
Did I violate a forum rule?

You call them negative....I call them the truth.

I like to start with the truth first. Then I work on whether its negative or positive or whatever.
 
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No, they weren't. What on earth are you talking about?

Elon Musk

✔@elonmusk

Replying to @elonmusk
Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3's on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.

11:04 PM - Jul 2, 2017

What part of "should" don't you understand?

Also:

"So, I would simply urge people to not get too caught up in what exactly falls within the exact calendar boundaries of a quarter, one quarter or the next, because when you have an exponentially growing production ramp, slight changes of a few weeks here or there can appear to have dramatic changes, but that is simply because of the arbitrary nature of when a quarter ends."

-Q2 2017 Earnings Call

Finally, welcome to my ignore list. You are very abusive and like to attack people. So long.
 
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What part of "should" don't you understand?

The part where it is the same as "best case / no issues". That definition of "should" appears in no dictionaries ever.

For a self-proclaimed "thug", you certainly are a delicate little flower. I said you were wrong, and asked what you were talking about. Clearly, you don't know the meaning of the word "abuse" either. So long!
 
No one will miss the window...... because the window keeps moving.

My reservation date is now 2 months behind the original date.

Your statement about being 2 months behind original date implies its 2 months behind original schedule. However, your delivery window (for AWD) has moved UP 2 months...From Sept-Nov to Jul-Sept
I don't know where you got the dual motor option dates from, but the new Tesla delivery estimator has me ( 3/31 ) line waiter slated for Sept - Nov 2018. I am so disgusted right now.
reservation-jpg.238837

No..no ....it moved up to next July ....which is about a year from now. Originally it was Sept - Nov 2018

View attachment 238837
reservation2-jpg.238832


I'm very curious about the gaps in VIN numbers if they have only produced 260, yet are delivering 5xx VINs
 
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Elon vs Estimated Actual
July=30 (Actual 30)
August=100 (Estimated 60)
September=1,500 (Estimated 170)
Total=1,630 (Total 260)
So month 2 doubled production over month 1 - and month 3 almost tripled production over month 2. Yet three people disagreed that this is good news and a good ramp. Honestly - TMC is full of so many people who can't see the forest for the trees - that I wonder how they make a living in the real world. Entrepreneurs pushing the boundaries they are not, lol.

Screen Shot 2017-10-03 at 7.54.41 AM.png


No one will miss the window...... because the window keeps moving.

My reservation date is now 2 months behind the original date.
Big whoop. You have a life - go live it. :p Your car will show eventually.
 
So month 2 doubled production over month 1 - and month 3 almost tripled production over month 2. Yet three people disagreed that this is good news and a good ramp. Honestly - TMC is full of so many people who can't see the forest for the trees - that I wonder how they make a living in the real world. Entrepreneurs pushing the boundaries they are not, lol.

View attachment 251456


Big whoop. You have a life - go live it. :p Your car will show eventually.

Wow, so we've sunk to the gutter level of trying to publicly shame people in this forum by taking screen shots of the ratings on a post and then re-posting them to the thread so that you can try to embarrass them?

The problem for you is I'm not embarrassed by your little tar and feather routine. I downrated your post, make sure to take a screenshot of it, upload the file and write a little diatribe.

Someone pointed to the fact that Tesla produced 260 Model 3s between July-September as "great news".

Wrong.

They were supposed to have produced almost 10X as many cars and they didn't. That's why the post got a thumbs down rating, from me. Trying to spin those production numbers as "great" is just ridiculous.

It doesn't mean the sky is falling, but it is not good news. It shows, as usual, that Elon's projections are too optimistic. I also see people gushing about how amazing it is that they've doubled production month after month. That's not much to write home about at this point since it would mean 500 cars in October, 1000 cars in November, 2,000 cars in December, 4,000 in January, etc. When you've got a 500K order backlog you are going to have to grow the production capability faster than that.
 
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Wow, so we've sunk to the gutter level of trying to publicly shame people in this forum by taking screen shots of the ratings on a post and then re-posting them to the thread so that you can try to embarrass them?

The problem for you is I'm not embarrassed by your little tar and feather routine. I downrated your post, make sure to take a screenshot of it, upload the file and write a little diatribe.

Someone pointed to the fact that Tesla produced 260 Model 3s between July-September as "great news".

Wrong.

They were supposed to have produced almost 10X as many cars and they didn't. That's why the post got a thumbs down rating, from me.

It doesn't mean the sky is falling, but it is not good news. It shows, as usual, that Elon's projections are too optimistic. I also see people gushing about how amazing it is that they've doubled production month after month. That's not much to write home about at this point since it would mean 500 cars in October, 1000 cars in November, 2,000 cars in December, 4,000 in January, etc. When you've got a 500K order backlog you are going to have to grow the production capability faster than that.
There is NO public shaming going on here - and there is no problem for me. Like/disagree are public comments and all of our usernames are attached to them. Criticism? Perhaps. Shame? No. As for the ramp - get out your calculator and do wittle bit of math and you will quickly realize that whatever the ramp is - it will be a blip in history nobody will give a rat's patootie about 24 months from now. Tesla wasn't "supposed" to do anything - they have no obligation to you me or anyone else. If you have not yet learned that Elon sets impossibly high public goals as a formal business methodology - then you've been out of reach of any news for the last decade.
 
There is NO public shaming going on here - and there is no problem for me. Like/disagree are public comments and all of our usernames are attached to them. Criticism? Perhaps. Shame? No. As for the ramp - get out your calculator and do wittle bit of math and you will quickly realize that whatever the ramp is - it will be a blip in history nobody will give a rat's patootie about 24 months from now. Tesla wasn't "supposed" to do anything - they have no obligation to you me or anyone else. If you have not yet learned that Elon sets impossibly high public goals as a formal business methodology - then you've been out of reach of any news for the last decade.

I agree that 24 months from now nobody is going to care if production ramp-up took a month or two longer than expected.

The people though who are in this forum dying for that December delivery window are the ones who are apparently losing their mind over this. They appear to be the type that would rather get the product in beta forum rather than let the manufacturer sort the problems out.
 
...It shows, as usual, that Elon's projections are too optimistic.

No - they're not too optimistic. He does it on purpose and has so for many years - and has said so repeatedly in public that he operates this way. The method drives his people to the brink of exhaustion/death but achieves results in the long run that nobody else has managed to do.

I also see people gushing about how amazing it is that they've doubled production month after month. That's not much to write home about at this point since it would mean 500 cars in October, 1000 cars in November, 2,000 cars in December, 4,000 in January, etc.

8000, 16000, 32000, 64000. Wowsas - the power of geometric increases is a wonder to behold!

When you've got a 500K order backlog you are going to have to grow the production capability faster than that.

Or - what? Dey all gonna buy Bolts? lol.
 
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