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Model 3 Production Line Paused for Improvements

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Tesla’s Model 3 production line has shut down for four to five days, according to a report from Buzzfeed.

A Tesla spokesperson said the assembly line is stopped to “improve automation.” According to Buzzfeed:

The announcement of the four- to five-day production pause for Model 3 came without warning, according to Tesla employees who spoke with BuzzFeed News. During the pause, workers are expected to use vacation days or stay home without pay; a small number of workers may be offered paid work elsewhere in the factory.

Tesla had a similar pause of production in February. At the time, the company said the Model 3 production plan includes periods of planned downtime in both the Fremont factory and Gigafactory 1 to improve automation and systematically address bottlenecks in order to increase production rates. “This is not unusual and is in fact common in production ramps like this,” the company told Bloomberg.

The latest pause comes just days after CEO Elon Musk told CBS that he has a “clear understanding of the path out of [production] hell.”

Tesla’s current goal is to manufacture 5,000 cars per week by the end of the second quarter, which was originally the year-end goal for 2017. The company said two weeks ago that it had achieved a production level of 2,000 Model 3s per week.

 
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This is just a continuation of the pauses over the past couple months that led to doubling of Model 3 production from ~1000 to ~2000 per week.

Tesla explained this in their recent update on production:

We were able to double the weekly Model 3 production rate during the quarter by rapidly addressing production and supply chain bottlenecks, including several short factory shutdowns to upgrade equipment. Tesla - Current Report
The previous shutdowns included one from Feb. 20-24, so similar in length to this one. https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2018/03/12/tesla-model-3-production-tsla.html

Tesla's earlier shutdowns to improve production seemed to work out great.

The short sellers on this thread trying to spread FUD are making much ado about nothing.

Here, Here!!!
Elon Musk is truly makin it happen!

Surely, Gigafactory I is ramping up to hit 5,000 Model 3 weekly production
for July 1st to maximize the $7,500 federal EV tax credit.
 
I too would like there to be more of a plan. But many companies nowadays have adopted a culture where disruption is acceptable as long as it accelerates product development and production. At companies like Google, Apple, and many others, management AND employees accept that plans may change, sometimes with less than desirable notice. If everyone agrees that is the faster path to success and can help them beat the competition, go for it.

Other companies will get left behind while they wait for the well-thought-out, thoroughly detailed plan. But making such a plan takes time and money, and it costs companies time-to-market. Modern thinking like just-in-time development, delivery, design, and implementation are really the new ways in which many companies operate. To be clear, it's not how I was taught, but I am recognizing that this is the new reality that most workers - whether at high tech or industrial companies - operate under.

So while I agree this *appears* to be ad-hoc, we don't actually know if it was or not. Might have been planned a few weeks ago, but the exact day wasn't known until the new equipment or machinery was in-transit or unloaded off a ship. Until that ship docks and parts are on a truck, you keep running the line as expected. If you get the parts in, then wait 6 weeks to inform everyone and get a "perfect" plan in place, you just lost 6 weeks of potentially improved productivity with the new equipment.

Gotta pick your poison to some extent.

I would think that if this was a new piece of equipment that there would be a schedule for the installation so that workers would have some time to get ready for a week without a paycheck. However, that being said, I also can see the possibility that some engineer has come up with some sort of improvement that is so good that Tesla wanted to get it implemented immediately. I guess we will know if that is the case when we see the new throughput figures. If this change would increase the output to 4,000 or 4,500 units per week then my guess might be the case. If however, it deals with a quality or safety issue, we may not see such a large increase in throughput.
 
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To those speculating that the shutdown was to add dual motor to the production line:
Surely this is not possible seeing as nobody has been invited to configure a dual motor car yet.
Or would Tesla create the capability to produce and then open the floodgates of demand?

I am 99.9999% sure the line as originally build had the stations needed for AWD and they are just bypassing them or running them in RWD mode.
 
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Normally, you build a handful cars with an untested design, then drive them on roads with engineers using instrumentation in various situations and climates before putting them in the hands of customers.
Apparently the Model 3LRD was seen a road track for testing. This is a good sign.
For those still in the queue for the 3LR, it will most likely cause delays, but those owners who deferred for the 3LRD will get their cars sooner.
 
I am 99.9999% sure the line as originally build had the stations needed for AWD and they are just bypassing them or running them in RWD mode.
Yes, but I am just as sure as you that those stations need to be upgraded. The question is if they know what to upgrade now or will they need to build a couple hundred AWDs to learn what needs to be upgraded.
 
Yes, but I am just as sure as you that those stations need to be upgraded. The question is if they know what to upgrade now or will they need to build a couple hundred AWDs to learn what needs to be upgraded.

When you say upgraded, do you mean tuned? (to me, upgraded means replaced with a newer version. And it could be that they only have place holders for the AWD sections). My thought is that the mounting points for the frame are already there, so the equipment itself is fairly well defined. The front driver unit itself may need tweaked based on testing...
 
When you say upgraded, do you mean tuned? (to me, upgraded means replaced with a newer version. And it could be that they only have place holders for the AWD sections). My thought is that the mounting points for the frame are already there, so the equipment itself is fairly well defined. The front driver unit itself may need tweaked based on testing...
They last built AWDs when the line was below 1000/week. The line is now close to 3000/week. The will not let the line slow down to 1000/week again. When the AWD causes a bottleneck at the current run rate they will redesign the AWD stations as needed to do the current run rates. I do expect they learned enough at the lower speeds to know some of the improvements needed, but I would bet that at 3000-5000/week, the AWD will cause bottlenecks.

So yes, this shutdown will include changes to enable AWD. No the line will not start building AWD in volume after the shutdown. If they are smart they will do some AWD and push the line to find the bottlenecks and then we will have another shutdown in late May or Early June.
 
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They last built AWDs when the line was below 1000/week. The line is now close to 3000/week. The will not let the line slow down to 1000/week again. When the AWD causes a bottleneck at the current run rate they will redesign the AWD stations as needed to do the current run rates. I do expect they learned enough at the lower speeds to know some of the improvements needed, but I would bet that at 3000-5000/week, the AWD will cause bottlenecks.

So yes, this shutdown will include changes to enable AWD. No the line will not start building AWD in volume after the shutdown. If they are smart they will do some AWD and push the line to find the bottlenecks and then we will have another shutdown in late May or Early June.

What are your thoughts on where the bottleneck would be?
Additional steps I forsee:
  • Lift and fasten front drive unit (4 bolts?)
  • Connect HV and communication harness
  • Connect cooling lines
  • Install half shafts in drive unit (along with doing front suspension)
Seems like the first step might have been planned to be automated. If so, it may get turned into a robot assisted/ human guided operation instead.
 
To those speculating that the shutdown was to add dual motor to the production line:
Surely this is not possible seeing as nobody has been invited to configure a dual motor car yet.
Or would Tesla create the capability to produce and then open the floodgates of demand?

Tesla tends to add the capability, then announce it...

BTW - I finally got my Model 3 configuration invite yesterday. My own internal questioning about the reason for this 3-5 day production pause is the only thing holding me back from ordering.

Maybe it's just to improve production rates (most likely scenario - 90%). However, it could also be for adding something - like AWD or different-colored interior (small probability - 10%).

Put another way: If they *are* about to add new options, it would look just like this 3-5 day production shutdown.

I may wait a few days before ordering, just to see...
 
I read a blurb on my Yahoo news feed, that the bottleneck is in Gigafactory on the battery production, specifically on the quality of the new 2170 format cells. Now this could be FUD. But if not, then that worries me.
 
Curious that Elon in his employee email confirmed 3 consecutive weeks of just over 2,000 units, when the Bloomberg tracker was showing roughly 2700 for a while. Sales channel being just ahead of production capacity, clearing the lots a bit? They'll need to deliver all the 6,000 per week that they intend to build just over 2 months from now. Maybe a bit less fanfare when you take delivery? Just so many being sold out within just 1 or 2 countries...
 
Curious that Elon in his employee email confirmed 3 consecutive weeks of just over 2,000 units, when the Bloomberg tracker was showing roughly 2700 for a while. Sales channel being just ahead of production capacity, clearing the lots a bit? They'll need to deliver all the 6,000 per week that they intend to build just over 2 months from now. Maybe a bit less fanfare when you take delivery? Just so many being sold out within just 1 or 2 countries...

I think the two quick VIN registrations by Tesla on 4/5 (4,793) and 4/6 (2,915) threw off the Bloomberg model. Tesla had been doing registrations on a somewhat weekly basis and the 7,700 registrations over two days made it appear that Tesla had quickly ramped up production but instead appears to have elongated the period between batch registrations.

Bloomberg also made tweaks to their model today to be more sensitive to sudden changes. In the end, Bloomberg's tracker is just their best guess and it is bound to be inaccurate (and Bloomberg has admitted as well).
 
I think the two quick VIN registrations by Tesla on 4/5 (4,793) and 4/6 (2,915) threw off the Bloomberg model. Tesla had been doing registrations on a somewhat weekly basis and the 7,700 registrations over two days made it appear that Tesla had quickly ramped up production but instead appears to have elongated the period between batch registrations.

Bloomberg also made tweaks to their model today to be more sensitive to sudden changes. In the end, Bloomberg's tracker is just their best guess and it is bound to be inaccurate (and Bloomberg has admitted as well).
Surely someone can keep watch and count trailers leaving Fremont for us? :)