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Model 3 Production Line Paused for Improvements

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by TMC Staff, Apr 16, 2018.

  1. Blu Angel

    Blu Angel Member

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    Here, Here!!!
    Elon Musk is truly makin it happen!

    Surely, Gigafactory I is ramping up to hit 5,000 Model 3 weekly production
    for July 1st to maximize the $7,500 federal EV tax credit.
     
  2. NRG4All

    NRG4All Member

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    I would think that if this was a new piece of equipment that there would be a schedule for the installation so that workers would have some time to get ready for a week without a paycheck. However, that being said, I also can see the possibility that some engineer has come up with some sort of improvement that is so good that Tesla wanted to get it implemented immediately. I guess we will know if that is the case when we see the new throughput figures. If this change would increase the output to 4,000 or 4,500 units per week then my guess might be the case. If however, it deals with a quality or safety issue, we may not see such a large increase in throughput.
     
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  3. DanL3

    DanL3 Member

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    I am sure that the workers new this was coming. After the Feb shutdown and the Mar-Apr push. I could see it coming and I am on the outside.
     
  4. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    Is GF the bottleneck still then?
     
  5. drawfour

    drawfour Member

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    It has been one of the bottlenecks. I'm sure there are multiple contributing bottlenecks. They'll also probably discover more as they reduce one bottleneck, another further downstream becomes more apparent. But hopefully this shutdown to upgrade the line has taken a bunch of those potential bottlenecks into consideration as well.
     
  6. Siggy101

    Siggy101 Member

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    To those speculating that the shutdown was to add dual motor to the production line:
    Surely this is not possible seeing as nobody has been invited to configure a dual motor car yet.
    Or would Tesla create the capability to produce and then open the floodgates of demand?
     
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  7. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    I am 99.9999% sure the line as originally build had the stations needed for AWD and they are just bypassing them or running them in RWD mode.
     
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  8. McRat

    McRat Well-Known Member

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    Normally, you build a handful cars with an untested design, then drive them on roads with engineers using instrumentation in various situations and climates before putting them in the hands of customers.
    Apparently the Model 3LRD was seen a road track for testing. This is a good sign.
    For those still in the queue for the 3LR, it will most likely cause delays, but those owners who deferred for the 3LRD will get their cars sooner.
     
  9. DanL3

    DanL3 Member

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    Yes, but I am just as sure as you that those stations need to be upgraded. The question is if they know what to upgrade now or will they need to build a couple hundred AWDs to learn what needs to be upgraded.
     
  10. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    When you say upgraded, do you mean tuned? (to me, upgraded means replaced with a newer version. And it could be that they only have place holders for the AWD sections). My thought is that the mounting points for the frame are already there, so the equipment itself is fairly well defined. The front driver unit itself may need tweaked based on testing...
     
  11. DanL3

    DanL3 Member

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    They last built AWDs when the line was below 1000/week. The line is now close to 3000/week. The will not let the line slow down to 1000/week again. When the AWD causes a bottleneck at the current run rate they will redesign the AWD stations as needed to do the current run rates. I do expect they learned enough at the lower speeds to know some of the improvements needed, but I would bet that at 3000-5000/week, the AWD will cause bottlenecks.

    So yes, this shutdown will include changes to enable AWD. No the line will not start building AWD in volume after the shutdown. If they are smart they will do some AWD and push the line to find the bottlenecks and then we will have another shutdown in late May or Early June.
     
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  12. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    What are your thoughts on where the bottleneck would be?
    Additional steps I forsee:
    • Lift and fasten front drive unit (4 bolts?)
    • Connect HV and communication harness
    • Connect cooling lines
    • Install half shafts in drive unit (along with doing front suspension)
    Seems like the first step might have been planned to be automated. If so, it may get turned into a robot assisted/ human guided operation instead.
     
  13. DanL3

    DanL3 Member

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    Know body knows until they happen. So you have to run production volumes before you see production volume bottlenecks.
     
  14. BluePhoton

    BluePhoton Member

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    Tesla tends to add the capability, then announce it...

    BTW - I finally got my Model 3 configuration invite yesterday. My own internal questioning about the reason for this 3-5 day production pause is the only thing holding me back from ordering.

    Maybe it's just to improve production rates (most likely scenario - 90%). However, it could also be for adding something - like AWD or different-colored interior (small probability - 10%).

    Put another way: If they *are* about to add new options, it would look just like this 3-5 day production shutdown.

    I may wait a few days before ordering, just to see...
     
  15. Electroman

    Electroman Well-Known Member

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    I read a blurb on my Yahoo news feed, that the bottleneck is in Gigafactory on the battery production, specifically on the quality of the new 2170 format cells. Now this could be FUD. But if not, then that worries me.
     
  16. barjohn

    barjohn Member

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    This is day 4 so are they starting back production yet? Anyone heard anything?
     
  17. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    I now see the Bloomberg tracker dip a bit, to 2366 per week. 17,500 delivered, built could be 20-25,000?
     
  18. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    Curious that Elon in his employee email confirmed 3 consecutive weeks of just over 2,000 units, when the Bloomberg tracker was showing roughly 2700 for a while. Sales channel being just ahead of production capacity, clearing the lots a bit? They'll need to deliver all the 6,000 per week that they intend to build just over 2 months from now. Maybe a bit less fanfare when you take delivery? Just so many being sold out within just 1 or 2 countries...
     
  19. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    I think the two quick VIN registrations by Tesla on 4/5 (4,793) and 4/6 (2,915) threw off the Bloomberg model. Tesla had been doing registrations on a somewhat weekly basis and the 7,700 registrations over two days made it appear that Tesla had quickly ramped up production but instead appears to have elongated the period between batch registrations.

    Bloomberg also made tweaks to their model today to be more sensitive to sudden changes. In the end, Bloomberg's tracker is just their best guess and it is bound to be inaccurate (and Bloomberg has admitted as well).
     
  20. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Active Member

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    Surely someone can keep watch and count trailers leaving Fremont for us? :)
     
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