Model 3 Production Rate Poll

[ValueAnalyst]

What will be the weekly Model 3 production rate at end-17?

Please feel free to present your argument after you vote as an informed discussion benefits us all.

For reference, the following graph represents the original management guidance, but the 5,000 weekly rate was recently pushed back to March of 2018 due to production bottlenecks at Gigafactory 1. You may read the most recent detailed management discussion on the state of the production ramp in the 3Q17 Earnings Call Transcript.

 

[bambam4171]

End of 2017 is just one month away. One month is not a lot of time to fix issues that have been holding you up for months already. E.g. does not look like there are many quick fixes

 

[electracity]

Zero again.
The last day of 2017 is a Sunday.

Actually I picked 500-1000. I think Musk will put his children on the assembly line if it allows him to talk about a December production upswing on the Q42017 EC. He then doesn't have to talk about M3 production again until spring.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Zero again.
The last day of 2017 is a Sunday.

Your pessimism often clashes with my optimism, but I do love your humor.

Actually I picked 500-1000. I think Musk will put his children on the assembly line if it allows him to talk about a December production upswing on the Q42017 EC. He then doesn't have to talk about M3 production again until spring.

Child labor!!! More FUD!!!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Here's the relevant section from the last earnings call:

James J. Albertine - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Great. Thank you and good afternoon everyone. I wanted to ask with respect to – and Elon, thank you for doing the deeper dive into the zones and the bottlenecks. How does this change the trajectory or does it change the trajectory from a margin perspective on the Model 3? And then maybe as an aside, can you tell us where you are today on a production per week basis and where you expect to be by the end of 2017, just so we can get an idea of the ramp? Thanks.

[snip: the usual S-curve rhetoric]

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

I mean, by the end of the year, it will be in the thousands. It's well advanced. Yeah. Yeah.

James J. Albertine - Consumer Edge Research LLC

I'm sorry, well into the thousands per...

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yeah. In the thousands by the end of the year. But where exactly, it's hard to say. And literally, if you move the calendar by, like, two or three weeks, you would see giant changes.

 

[DOCAL]

Zero again.
The last day of 2017 is a Sunday.

That's OK, just use the ISO week, then you get the full 7 days in this case.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

1,000 +/- 200 units in last production week of 2017.

 

[30seconds]

VIN sightings seemed to have topped out around 1100 over last two weeks. If Model 3 was even hitting 300/week we should be hearing reports closer to 2000 by now.

I suspect they cleared an earlier backlog but still having big issues

 

[ValueAnalyst]

VIN sightings seemed to have topped out around 1100 over last two weeks. If Model 3 was even hitting 300/week we should be hearing reports closer to 2000 by now.

I suspect they cleared an earlier backlog but still having big issues

Keep in mind that "VIN sightings" will likely trail "production rate" by two to three weeks. M3 delivery estimates are tracking four weeks from order.

 

[MitchJi]

I used 1,500-2,000. Elon said multiple thousands but he didn’t sound very confident. If they fix the pack production problems by the third week of December I think that 2-3k is likely.

 

[MitchJi]

VIN sightings seemed to have topped out around 1100 over last two weeks. If Model 3 was even hitting 300/week we should be hearing reports closer to 2000 by now.

Now is only relevant if they don’t get the pack bottleneck fixed between now and third week of December.

 

[Cattledog]

I guessed 1,000-1,500. I think Elon really, really wants to issue the delivery/production letter January 3rd that says Model 3 production now exceeds Model S and Model X (which also hit production records for of somewhere over 1,000/week each). I think the street would like this news. Then he has until the earnings call in early-February to say they've doubled again to 2,000-2,500 and are on target to hit 5,000 by the end of Q1. Then well find out in early April if they did it.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I guessed 1,000-1,500. I think Elon really, really wants to issue the delivery/production letter January 3rd that says Model 3 production now exceeds Model S and Model X (which also hit production records for of somewhere over 1,000/week each). I think the street would like this news. Then he has until the earnings call in early-February to say they've doubled again to 2,000-2,500 and are on target to hit 5,000 by the end of Q1. Then well find out in early April if they did it.

That's a reasonable timeline and solid logic; thank you for sharing.

My guess for exit-17 is 1,500 to 2,000, primarily due to the config opening up to non-employees and the four-week delivery estimate. If we get a significant acceleration of invites this week or next, that would be a good sign that 1,500 to 2,000/week is on track for exit-17.

 

[elasalle]

Still < 500 by end of DEC.
There was one posting (2- 3 days back) that said current rate was 80/week.

if issues are resolved, the big jump will come between Jan-April. (could happen last two weeks of Dec too ..)

 

[Starno]

As I said in one of my previous posts, I think :
Over 70% chance that it will reach >500 a week
And 50% chance it will reach >1000 a week.

So, to play the game I'll say :
Most likely about 700 a week by end of december.
But maybe up to 1200 a week.

-------------

Let's see how it plays out.

 

[sweter]

My guesstimate is around 2360 cars total until EOY. Based on current VIN sightings and reports:

- July - 50 (produced)
- August - 90
- September - 120
Q3 TOTAL: 260
- October - 200 (40/wk)
- November - 400 (100/wk)
- December - 1500 (increasing by 100/wk every week).
Q4 TOTAL: 2100
2017 TOTAL: 2360

Currently highest spotted VIN is 1131 and my estimated total deliveries YTD is 860. We've seen evidence of VIN's not being delivered in order the VIN range is probaly not 100% saturated (76% in my guesstimate).

If some bottlenecks are solved (I do believe there are few other bottlenecks we didn't hear about, minor though) December could see production increase of 4x. Reaching 500/wk in last week of the year (which may not be the case as I hear Tesla is shutdown that last week - but I'm not adjusting to that because my estimate is pretty pessimistic already). 4x increase MoM is pretty ok I think.

Interestingly, Adam Jonas' original estimate was 2000 cars delivered in 2017: A major Tesla bull just downgraded the stock, and shares are sliding

(This is delivery estimation as we only have delivery data, actual production might be higher).

Still hoping and believing that it's possible to get to 5k/wk in last week of March though

 

[bdy0627]

The most obvious guess would be < 500 per week at the end of next month based upon where we are now. I believe the majority of the data that we have at this point suggests that is where we will be in terms of production in just 5 weeks. I'm a little more optimistic than that, so for my WAG I'm going with 500 - 1,000, which would be a massive jump in production from where we appear to be now. If we get to that level by the end of next month, I believe the market will respond favorably due to speculation over all the Model 3s that appear to be hitting the streets. Of course, quarterly delivery numbers will be announced just a week or so later, which should make for some pretty volatile stock action. By the way, I'm not betting with my money on the ramp in such a short time frame. My earliest bet is for March, which I still view as somewhat risky.

 

[NAT3]

My guesstimate is around 2360 cars total until EOY. Based on current VIN sightings and reports:

- July - 50 (produced)
- August - 90
- September - 120
Q3 TOTAL: 260
- October - 200 (40/wk)
- November - 400 (100/wk)
- December - 1500 (increasing by 100/wk every week).
Q4 TOTAL: 2100
2017 TOTAL: 2360

Currently highest spotted VIN is 1131 and my estimated total deliveries YTD is 860. We've seen evidence of VIN's not being delivered in order the VIN range is probaly not 100% saturated (76% in my guesstimate).

If some bottlenecks are solved (I do believe there are few other bottlenecks we didn't hear about, minor though) December could see production increase of 4x. Reaching 500/wk in last week of the year (which may not be the case as I hear Tesla is shutdown that last week - but I'm not adjusting to that because my estimate is pretty pessimistic already). 4x increase MoM is pretty ok I think.

Interestingly, Adam Jonas' original estimate was 2000 cars delivered in 2017: A major Tesla bull just downgraded the stock, and shares are sliding

(This is delivery estimation as we only have delivery data, actual production might be higher).

Still hoping and believing that it's possible to get to 5k/wk in last week of March though

This is a useful, numerically informed guesstimate. At the end of Q3, there were 49 unique VINs referenced through forums here, implying a production multiplier of about 5x the verified VINs. Through today I've counted 193 unique VINs referenced with pictures. This puts current production at roughly 1000 M3s, consistent with the maximum VIN sighted to date (~1100). The most interesting piece of this is the dramatic ramp from the last two weeks (about 30 verified VINs per week) to this week (about 60 verified VINs). It will be interesting to see in the next few weeks if the rate stays constant or continues to climb.

 

[schonelucht]

It's interesting to compare this poll with an earlier one about total Model 3 production by the end of the year (Model 3 Delivery Estimates for Q4 2017) For an additional data point : anyone who is up to date with the lastest NHTSA vin registration numbers for the Model 3? I think all three likely point to less than 5000 cars produced by the end of the year.

 

[TaoJones]

1,000/week by eoy,
2,500/week by 2018(eo)Q1,
and
5,000/week by 2018(eo)Q2

Would be my best guesses for Model 3 production at this point.

Complicating matters will be the short weeks both eoy and customarily at the start of the year.

I’m least confident in the eoQ2 projection, but... we’ll see.

If they exceed 5,000/week Model 3 production by (eoy)2018, I’d be a happy camper but the analysts would probably not share that sentiment.