Model 3 production suspended from Feb 20-24

[DanL3]

Looks like they Built about 3000 cars in February. I would expect about 4000 cars in March with a day or two at 400 a day. Then they will say that those couple of days were at the 2500/week rate. They will not do a real 2500 /week continuously until some time in Q3.

Look for spin at the Q1 announcement and then a disappointing push out after the announcement.

 

[villarrr]

I suspect this is one last ditch attempt to reach 2500 per week goal. Likely will try and spin "burst" production speed of 2500/week as having made target of 2500/week. All about the earnings call in my opinion. They have to keep access to capital markets to fund expansion to semi, Y and 5000/week goals.

 

[lupend88]

There's no evidence the February stoppage had anything to do with the line from Germany. Based on what we have heard, that was supposed to come in March, so my hypothesis is the February stoppage was not related to this, so we may not have "been played... again."

If I see 2500/week by March 31st then I will agree we have not been played. I'll hold my breath.

 

[lupend88]

From the article:


How is a planned shutdown to implement production line improvements equal to being played? As R-123 asks, how would you make improvements to an active production line?

If you think Tesla's lying to you, then why do business with them? Request your deposit back and buy a vehicle from a company you trust.

There is a huge grey area between having doubts in a company's word and requesting a deposit back. I don't trust everything Subway tells me, but do I buy their subs on occasion? Same idea.

 

[SpiceWare]

There is a huge grey area between having doubts in a company's word and requesting a deposit back. I don't trust everything Subway tells me, but do I buy their subs on occasion? Same idea.

There's a significant difference between a few dollars for a sandwich and tens of thousands of dollars. I might do the former, never the later.

 

[lupend88]

There's a significant difference between a few dollars for a sandwich and tens of thousands of dollars. I might do the former, never the later.

Having doubts in their production ramp up is more than justified based off of the last few months. That doesn’t mean that I dislike Tesla at all, and that definitely doesn’t mean that I don’t believe they will build a phenomenal product. Suggesting that one should cancel their order just because they have doubts they will ramp up in the speed in which they have suggested is dramatic to say the least.

 

[SpiceWare]

There's a huge difference between:

Looks like we have all been played.. again.

and

Having doubts in their production ramp up.

With the first you imply that Tesla is lying to you. If I thought a company was lying to me, I wouldn't do business with them; hence my question in #15.

The second acknowledges that Tesla's ramp up estimate is not a promise, but that doesn't jive with "been played.. again."

 

[lupend88]

There's a huge difference between:



and


With the first you imply that Tesla is lying to you. If I thought a company was lying to me, I wouldn't do business with them; hence my question in #15.

The second acknowledges that Tesla's ramp up estimate is not a promise, but that doesn't jive with "been played.. again."

I think you’re probably dissecting my words too much. If you wanted to get technical, saying “looks like” isn’t gospel but a guess. Aka- “looks like it’ll rain tomorrow” doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll rain tomorrow, it means there’s a possibility. So, when I say “looks like”, I am showing hesitation, which is fair.

 

[SpiceWare]

I wasn't dissecting, that was first impression from what I'd read. Thank you for clarifying.

 

[NRG4All]

All of these speculations will probably be the stimulus for many questions during the April Shareholders call.

 

[John Beans]

All of these speculations will probably be the stimulus for many questions during the April Shareholders call.

Typically early May, BTW.

 

[Jack6591]

I remain resolute in my commitment to Tesla. I base that on Elon’s ability to separate signal from noise.

Time and time again, I’ve watched him accomplish the amazing while staring down adversity.

Underestimate at your own peril.

I’m buying more stock.

 

[psumarkopolo]

They need to hit 15,500 units to hit minimum requirements from Elon's previous guidance. If you allow for the 1 week shutdown... 14.5K. So they need to have a total of 18K total M3's made to avoid missing 2 more deadlines. Actually pretty surprised how far along they are right now. Just depends how much rework / remanufacturing they are required to do on those.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

They need to hit 15,500 units to hit minimum requirements from Elon's previous guidance. If you allow for the 1 week shutdown... 14.5K. So they need to have a total of 18K total M3's made to avoid missing 2 more deadlines. Actually pretty surprised how far along they are right now. Just depends how much rework / remanufacturing they are required to do on those.

Deadlines?

Who's deadlines?

As far as I know, nobody has said "we are going to produce X number of cars by Y date or else."

Any deadlines are our own interpretation of educated estimates. SMH

Dan