So I have a theory: the Model 3 development is farther along than Tesla has stated publicly. The silver prototype car is in final form, externally (interior design is not yet final). Tesla is going to be releasing videos of the Model 3 in the near future to maintain public interest before Part 2 of the reveal. Then shortly after the Part 2 reveal the car is going to go into production, well before the end of 2017.
I concur. None of the cars at the Model ☰ Reveal Part I were
'mules'. They were referred to as
'Engineering Prototypes'. I take that to mean vehicles designed to validate what their computer models and engineering simulations have said in the Real World. They will use the data they glean to make tweaks one way or the other, but this is basically
'The CAR'. Maybe a cosmetic change here or there, maybe a slight change to this or that, but knowing they have to start final tooling a bit sooner than they originally anticipated, there is not enough time to dally.
Once the Gigafactory is able to begin producing the final battery cell design, the clock begins on the countdown to Production. I expect that Tesla Motors will want to have no less than 10,000 of the battery packs built before they begin Production. The first couple thousand may go to a fleet of Beta Prototypes to be used as demonstration cars at Tesla Stores nationwide, for press photo shoots and first looks, for crash testing and EPA validation.
The next four thousand might go to Employees, who will studiously report any problems, glitches, or errors. Then another four thousand or so to make sure those problems were fixed, and that no new ones have developed. Then hit the ground running building something like 4,000 per week and pushing them out the door. I'd like that.
