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Model 3 "pushed back" to 2018?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Twiddler, Jun 22, 2015.

  1. Twiddler

    Twiddler Member

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    This is in the news this morning:

    Tesla Motors: Model 3 Pushed Back To 2018

    Apparently, J.B. Straubel stated that the model is to be released in 2018 as opposed to the "late 2017" date previously stated. NBD IMO, but the market sure didn't like it.
     
  2. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    Se the update:
    This is not the first time there have been errors in the slides JB has used...
     
  3. physicsfita

    physicsfita Member

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    Are those necessarily contradictory statements? Beginning production in late 2017 could be compatible with deliveries beginning in early 2018.
     
  4. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    #4 electracity, Jun 22, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2015
    I noticed Musk say recently "late 2017". Producing 10,000 cars in Q4 2017 meets the 2017 commitment. But in reality is more of a 2018 release, especially for battery planning.

    I like to think that Tesla is past the teething stage and that Musk knows that achievable public deadlines are important.


    http://www.eia.gov/conference/2015/pdf/presentations/straubel.pdf

    The price of solar chart on page 21 is from 2009.

     
  5. Fiver

    Fiver Member

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    I wish they would get the slides right. First "2017", then "Late 2017", now "2018". It's supposed to say 2019 and they keep misprinting them!

    Seriously, start thinking 2019 now, that way the inevitable delay to 2020 won't sting so bad.
     
  6. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    My interception of this tweet:
    ricardo-reyes-tweet-on-model-3.jpg is "The report on the web about the Model 3 been delayed until 2018 is false, we are still holding on to the original release plan".
     
  7. Kbra

    Kbra Member

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    So true.
     
  8. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Yeah, I think the reveal will happen on time, but can't see Model 3 shipping in late 2017. Maybe some token deliveries to save face, but last we heard there was nothing locked down on the 3 and we're about 2 years and 5 months from launch. The Model X was revealed in Feb 2012 with a "late 2013" delivery date. Three years and 4 months later, we're still waiting.
     
  9. Bulletproof

    Bulletproof Vendor

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    It sounds like first Model 3s late 2017 and full production will hit 2018. So far, no real news.
     
  10. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    The only reason I'll have to wait until 2019 to get a Model ≡ is that will be the first Production of the Coupé with Falcon Wing Doors! The Model ≡ Sedan will reach buyers in 2017. The Model ≡ Crossover should be available in 2018. The Model ≡ Cabriolet may debut with the Coupé in 2019.
     
  11. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    What are your sources?
     
  12. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    That would be analytical thought, common sense, and wishful thinking.

    What are yours?
     
  13. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    I don't have any and it sounds like you don't either. You speak in such authoritative terms on the Model 3 was just checking to see where you were getting your information.
     
  14. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    DISCLAIMER: I am just some guy on the internet. I have no insider information about Tesla Motors, their upcoming plans, or their future product lines. In short, I am just as clueless as the rest of you. I just really like what Tesla is doing and have high hopes for the future of the company. I do pay close attention to public statements by Elon Musk, JB Straubel, and Franz von Holzhausen. Using that information, along with what I have seen them accomplish thus far, I attempt to extrapolate the best case scenario for their possible course of action going forward. For the most jaded of Critics, Naysayers, Bears, and $#0r+s my outlook will undoubtedly seem rather childish, naive, misguided, and over-the-top optimistic. To those people I say [CONTINUOUS STREAM OF EXPLETIVES DELETED], so there! :p
     
  15. MassModel3

    MassModel3 Member

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    You're also one of the more optimistic of the Model 3 followers, and I share your optimism. Most of the time. Sometimes you throw out opinions that I really would like to be true, but with Tesla's history it's tough to be so confident all the time.

    This is one of those times I think you're too overly optimistic. I think the only Model 3's that will be out in 2017 will be the early adopter vehicles, such as perhaps a signature series. I don't think they'll be in full production until sometime in 2018. But then, you simply said "will reach buyers", so I guess that counts.
     
  16. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    They will not be in "full production" to around 2019/2020. We know there is a scale-up of production from the start in 2017 to full production of GF-I/Fremount reached sometime around 2020. You might think of "full production of what they can produce from the batteries manufactured by GF-I in late 2017"? More up-scaling when GF-II and more car manufacturers are online.


    Regarding new models: Tesla has as far as I have understood a goal of being able to introduce new models/variants each year. But if they are ready for it yet is one open question. I hope - and halfway believe - that Gen-III CUV (Model Y?) will get out one or two years after the Model 3. For future models/variants for this as there are many who "stand in line": New varieties/editions of both the Model S/3/X/Y (stw/cupe/cab/limo/van?), new Roadster, a potential supercar ("Model Z"), a pickup truck, maybe even smaller/cheaper car than Model 3 ("Model C")?
     
  17. MassModel3

    MassModel3 Member

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    Okay, yeah, I worded that waaaay poorly. In my head I'm thinking that if they produced at a level equivalent to Model S production, that's full production. But as you remind me, the goal is 500,000 cars a year, not 50,000.

    So to put it differently, I don't think Tesla will manufacture more than perhaps two or three thousand (and that's being VERY generous) in 2017 as they gradually ramp up the initial builds through the production line.
     
  18. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    That depends on what "late 2017" is :p If it is late nov./dec. you are probably spot on, but if its early oct. (eg. Q4) I surly hope they do better then that... But now first let us see the ramp up of the Model X, then we can start speculating more on this :)
     
  19. wallet.dat

    wallet.dat Member

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    Sigh. The Model E keeps getting pushed back so far, I'm really tempted to just get an Audi RS3 to hold me over til then.
     
  20. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    We should be happy if 2018 actually holds.
     

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