Model 3 "pushed back" to 2018?

[Red Sage]

Last report was that the Gifafactory was ahead of schedule. The output of the Gigafactory is necessary for the fruition of Model ≡, though not its launch. It would be a tremendous waste of resources to have an operational Gigafactory and no Model ≡ to take advantage of its output. Unless, of course, the Model X is a bigger hit than even I expect, and it needs the battery packs and Capacity of Fremont to fill the need. That would be an acceptable reason for delaying Model ≡. Though I rather doubt that eventuality.

 

[KD5MDK]

More likely, the delays in the 3 are unrelated to the Gigafactory, and the excess battery production will need to be routed to stationary storage until the car catches up.

 

[stopcrazypp]

What is all this talk about delay? As pointed out by Tesla, the plan was always unveiling in 2016, limited release in late 2017, and full release in 2018. There is no delay. This was just Inside EVs jumping the gun and assuming the 2018 in the slide was talking about a delay by another year.

 

[EVNow]

That was a badly mangled presentation - Tesla should not be putting out such conflicting message.

In any case few will be surprised if the car gets delayed given Tesla's reputation.

 

[slevit1md]

I hope the launch does get pushed! As far as possible! The biggest being that I'm afraid what the waits are going to be like at super chargers if there are a lot more Teslas out there! Ownership is currently limited to the relatively small percentage of the population that can afford a $70,000+ vehicle, but who knows how many will be fighting for the supercharger spots if that barrier to entry is removed. The other reason is that I think it devalues the brand a bit when luxury car companies release mass market versions of their vehicles. I like having something unique and would prefer not to drive yet another vehicle that you see all over the place. It's still fun to occasionally see a Bentley or Aston Martin, and in most parts of the county, people still think it's neat to see a Tesla. But no one really cares about a BMW or Mercedes and I wish Tesla wouldn't go that route.

 

[lucy]

I hope the launch does get pushed! As far as possible! The biggest being that I'm afraid what the waits are going to be like at super chargers if there are a lot more Teslas out there! Ownership is currently limited to the relatively small percentage of the population that can afford a $70,000+ vehicle, but who knows how many will be fighting for the supercharger spots if that barrier to entry is removed. The other reason is that I think it devalues the brand a bit when luxury car companies release mass market versions of their vehicles. I like having something unique and would prefer not to drive yet another vehicle that you see all over the place. It's still fun to occasionally see a Bentley or Aston Martin, and in most parts of the county, people still think it's neat to see a Tesla. But no one really cares about a BMW or Mercedes and I wish Tesla wouldn't go that route.

Agree so much!
Plus, so much schadenfreude
Did a Nelson "Ha ha!". Image from http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/simpsons/images/e/e9/Nelson_Ha-Ha.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20121205194057.

Waiting for a new model? Get comfy, it'll be a while...

 

[mknox]

The other reason is that I think it devalues the brand a bit when luxury car companies release mass market versions of their vehicles. I like having something unique and would prefer not to drive yet another vehicle that you see all over the place. It's still fun to occasionally see a Bentley or Aston Martin, and in most parts of the county, people still think it's neat to see a Tesla. But no one really cares about a BMW or Mercedes and I wish Tesla wouldn't go that route.

I remember someone at the first Tesla Owners conference (Teslive in 2013) expressed this exact sentiment to Elon during the Q&A after his presentation. He said something about how most car companies started at the lower, mass market level and moved upwards (Toyota -> Lexus, Nissan -> Infinity and so forth) but Tesla seemed to be doing the opposite. I remember Elon as being a little bit miffed and said his intention was not to build an exclusive brand, but to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles. And if that meant bringing the brand "down market" then so be it because that was his whole "secret" plan from the beginning.

 

[Father Bill]

This report on Green Car Reports says the Model 3 will be unveiled at the Geneva Auto Show in early 2016. Hopefully that will mean it gets into production sooner than 2018.

 

[MassModel3]

...I think it devalues the brand a bit when luxury car companies release mass market versions of their vehicles. I like having something unique and would prefer not to drive yet another vehicle that you see all over the place..

If you want to drive something from a manufacturer that people don't see very often, Tesla will certainly not be the car for you!

Yeah, sometimes I get a bit of personal ego boost knowing that I have a hot car, that I can out-accelerate most cars, or when I see people ogling my Model S -- but that's typically people who have actually heard of Tesla. Most people think it's just another sports car. The best reactions are from people who know about Tesla and their attempts at the electric revolution. To me, if the world goes hybrid, that's great. If the world goes all electric, even better. If everyone owned a Tesla, that would be amazing!

 

[strider]

I've said 2018 for "sig" deliveries and 2019 for general the whole time. Tesla has never made a date - every one of their cars has been late and the direction is getting worse, not better. I'm not ragging on them - they are doing big things that are hard and they take time. Their problem is that they publish unrealistic dates. But that's part and parcel of silicon valley culture so get used to it. They may "show" a Model 3 next year but ask the Model X res holders what that's worth. How long has it been since the Model X reveal party? I'm glad they are taking their time as that means the car is only going to get better. Heck if they just took the current P90D drivetrain and slap it in a 30% smaller/lighter car it will be able to take a Porsche 918 to 60 without any launch control BS. Imagine what they can do in another 2 years?

 

[gregincal]

I hope the launch does get pushed! As far as possible! The biggest being that I'm afraid what the waits are going to be like at super chargers if there are a lot more Teslas out there! Ownership is currently limited to the relatively small percentage of the population that can afford a $70,000+ vehicle, but who knows how many will be fighting for the supercharger spots if that barrier to entry is removed. The other reason is that I think it devalues the brand a bit when luxury car companies release mass market versions of their vehicles. I like having something unique and would prefer not to drive yet another vehicle that you see all over the place. It's still fun to occasionally see a Bentley or Aston Martin, and in most parts of the county, people still think it's neat to see a Tesla. But no one really cares about a BMW or Mercedes and I wish Tesla wouldn't go that route.

Teslas are a dime a dozen around here. I see at least 3 on my drive to work each morning. Personally I'm waiting for a smaller version, and owning one already isn't some sort of exclusive deal.

 

[Darren Donovan]

I hope the launch does get pushed! As far as possible! The biggest being that I'm afraid what the waits are going to be like at super chargers if there are a lot more Teslas out there! Ownership is currently limited to the relatively small percentage of the population that can afford a $70,000+ vehicle, but who knows how many will be fighting for the supercharger spots if that barrier to entry is removed. The other reason is that I think it devalues the brand a bit when luxury car companies release mass market versions of their vehicles. I like having something unique and would prefer not to drive yet another vehicle that you see all over the place. It's still fun to occasionally see a Bentley or Aston Martin, and in most parts of the county, people still think it's neat to see a Tesla. But no one really cares about a BMW or Mercedes and I wish Tesla wouldn't go that route.

Bad attitude. Tesla's mission is not just selling their cars, but to do what's necessary to popularize EVs. Tesla doesn't care about making owners feel special and exclusive.

 

[ecarfan]

Model 3 "pushed back" to 2018?

I believe this fear of Supercharger overcrowding as many more Teslas hit the road is misplaced. Tesla will continue to build out the Supercharger network, funding the build out with revenue obtained by selling cars, just as has been done for the past two years. It's really very simple. And I have no worries about a $35K Model 3 "devaluing" the brand. I think that is absurd. Mercedes, BMW, Lexus, have all successfully sold cars in that price range while maintaining demand for their much higher priced models. In any case, the mission of Tesla is not to just sell expensive unique cars, it is to convert the entire ground transport industry to EVs! If someone does not grasp that fact, then go read Elon's "Secret Master Plan" blog post from 2006. He is very clear, and Tesla still has the same master plan 9 years later. The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Tesla Motors

I hope the launch does get pushed! As far as possible! The biggest being that I'm afraid what the waits are going to be like at super chargers if there are a lot more Teslas out there! Ownership is currently limited to the relatively small percentage of the population that can afford a $70,000+ vehicle, but who knows how many will be fighting for the supercharger spots if that barrier to entry is removed. The other reason is that I think it devalues the brand a bit when luxury car companies release mass market versions of their vehicles. I like having something unique and would prefer not to drive yet another vehicle that you see all over the place. It's still fun to occasionally see a Bentley or Aston Martin, and in most parts of the county, people still think it's neat to see a Tesla. But no one really cares about a BMW or Mercedes and I wish Tesla wouldn't go that route.

 

[wart]

This report on Green Car Reports says the Model 3 will be unveiled at the Geneva Auto Show in early 2016. Hopefully that will mean it gets into production sooner than 2018.

Tesla isn't going to do a major product announcement at an auto show. They always do their own events where they don't have to share the stage. Tesla has taken that page from Apple's playbook.

 

[EVNow]

This report on Green Car Reports says the Model 3 will be unveiled at the Geneva Auto Show in early 2016. Hopefully that will mean it gets into production sooner than 2018.

No - it says (from autonews) that it will be a standalone event.

While the Geneva Motor Show is typically held in March every year, the report claims Tesla will unveil the Model 3 at a standalone event.

 

[meloccom]

I believe this fear of Supercharger overcrowding as many more Teslas hit the road is misplaced. Tesla will continue to build out the Supercharger network, funding the build out with revenue obtained by selling cars, just as has been done for the past two years. It's really very simple. And I have no worries about a $35K Model 3 "devaluing" the brand. I think that is absurd. Mercedes, BMW, Lexus, have all successfully sold cars in that price range while maintaining demand for their much higher priced models. In any case, the mission of Tesla is not to just sell expensive unique cars, it is to convert the entire ground transport industry to EVs! If someone does not grasp that fact, then go read Elon's "Secret Master Plan" blog post from 2006. He is very clear, and Tesla still has the same master plan 9 years later. The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Tesla Motors

Absolutely agree, anyone who bought a Tesla to be exclusive is going to be disappointed!

 

[AnOutsider]

Tesla isn't going to do a major product announcement at an auto show. They always do their own events where they don't have to share the stage. Tesla has taken that page from Apple's playbook.

...so far. They also haven't really done paid advertisements. Nothing to say that can't change.

 

[Red Sage]

The other reason is that I think it devalues the brand a bit when luxury car companies release mass market versions of their vehicles. I like having something unique and would prefer not to drive yet another vehicle that you see all over the place.

The others have pretty much bashed you over the head to knock some sense into you about this so far. Just a couple more points, for my own sense of satisfaction... OK?

Tesla Motors is not, and never has been, and never will be a luxury car company.

You should read this blog post, made by Elon Musk nearly nine years ago, August 2, 2006:

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Tesla Motors

Therein, Elon Musk lays down the law. The ultimate goal of Tesla Motors is to make electric cars ubiquitous, not rare... And accessible, not exclusive... And affordable, not luxurious. All while being compelling, fun to drive -- not boring, or ordinary.

Most of the traditional automobile manufacturers that have entered the North American market in the past fifty years or so have done so on the low end. Companies like Toyota, Honda, Datsun/Nissan, Hyundai, et al tried to build cars that were less expensive to buy and economical to operate. But the grand majority of automobile manufacturers over the past 120 years or so have begun on the high end instead. Cars were literally 'horseless carriages' that were considered experimental curiosities or 'toys for the rich'. There were hundreds of automobile companies prior to 1940 and they were largely custom, luxury affairs, that were built to order.

Those companies that began to offer full production, high volume, low cost vehicles used sales on the low end to support the existence of their high end division offerings. Some of these distinctions still exist in the form of Ford/Lincoln, Chevrolet/Cadillac, Honda/Acura, and Toyota/Lexus. And even within particular divisions this happens, so that the Fusion allows for the GT-40, Malibu makes the Corvette possible, and CLA-Class paying the bills for S-Class development.

It just happens that at Tesla Motors their focus is the opposite. The Model S and upcoming Model X were developed to bring about the Model ≡. So there is no need to 'protect' sales of the Generation II cars. At Tesla Motors, their Generation III offerings are the goal, not an afterthought. Though Elon would like to have a full line of cars, he wouldn't mind one bit if Model ≡ became so popular that there was no longer enough capacity at Fremont to build the Model S and Model X anymore. That would be seen as a supreme victory.

 

[slevit1md]

I do not recall claiming that EM (or Tesla in general) set out to develop an exclusive luxury brand. Although I will finally get my S tomorrow, I've been following along since the beginning and I am fully aware of their intentions. I also realize that even if EM cared nothing about the environment or switching everything to electric, it would just be bad business to only sell premium vehicles that most people can't afford. However, that doesn't change the fact that I'd still like it to stay a more exclusive brand. All I said is that I'd like the 3 to be delayed, and if history is any indication, it will be. They may be a dime a dozen in some places, but in most of the country, they remain pretty rare. I run into people regularly who have never heard of the car and many others who think they're neat but have never seen one. I've got a line of people waiting for a ride in mine when it comes.

At the moment, Tesla has arguably the best service of any automobile maker out there. However, we've already seen things slipping. Things like decreasing what they actually do on the yearly service, getting rid of free pickup and drop off for people who live further from service centers, etc. I don't imagine this is going to turn back in the other direction once this is a mass market car! Luxury car buyers usually get luxury service, but things aren't usually the same when you're primarily dealing with $35000 vehicles. The experience I've had with Tesla so far has far exceeded any other car company I've dealt with, but we'll see how long that lasts when we're not all spending upwards of $100,000 on the cars. And I also don't believe they'll be able to keep up with supercharger needs unless they seriously pick up the pace. For the foreseeable future, they're still trying to cover large parts of the country. But when you have 10x (or many more) the number of vehicles, you're going to need many more superchargers per location; a few per state isn't going to cut it. And when they're full, we're not talking 3 minutes until the car in front of you is full!

So, feel free to disagree with me and I'm well aware that Elon's and my goals are not in sync, but I'd have no issue if the model 3 were pushed back a few years! The model 3 will probably be great for the environment, great for Tesla's bottom line, and great for a large portion of the population. But I don't think it will be great for current owners. Maybe I'm wrong, and I hope I am, but I'm just going to enjoy the next few years.

 

[S'toon]

Thanks for the bad wishes towards me folks.